AFL Rd. 7.

[MrChristo]

12-8' (+2.99)

Adelaide +17.5

i) I don't think Melbourne's loss to Freo last week was the 'exception' people are saying. A win over Essendon is nothing, and 3 wins over Bulldogs, Geelong and Sydney all masked horrible defensive performances. (These teams kicked 30.57 b/w them!)...They have allowed 25+ shots at goal in every game since Rd. 2.
ii) The Crows are the real thing.
iii) After a slow start they are scoring very well, scoring 124, 120, 109 and 74, but against a very good defensive team in wet, slipery conditions.
iv) The Crows defense has been very good. They have allowed the 3rd least shots at goal this season, and allow a score every 2.27 entries into the 50, which is the best.

The Crows have won the last 3 meetings, and the last 2 meetings at the MCG, both as underdogs.

I really think the Crows will win this game, but will take the points to be safe.


Doggies +39.5

Massive over-reaction here!! Yoiu're only as good as your last game?..ah, no!
So Brisbane are 'back' after a big win over Essendon? I'm not so convinced.
The Doggies have had 47 more inside 50's and 28 more shots at goal, and allowed only 6 less goals.
Of course Brown back helps them no end, but he won't be playing on Ty Zantuck this week!
The Bulldogs lost in Brisbane by 68 points last year, but it was 2nd v. 14th and a total mismatch. The Lion's forward line had Lynch, Brown, Bradshaw and Pike all firing, and the Bulldogs were without Harris.
Lynch gone, Pike struggling, Bradshaw ?, but struggling anyway.
Also the loss of Darcy won't hurt as much in this game, as Hawthorn showed it was certainly possible (easier even!) to kick a big score with a small forward line.

I honestly don't think the Bullies are without a show here. Love getting nearly 7 goals!

 

[PAWAQATSI]

You're up on the bridge looking down at the tracks Christo!

You have summed up the numbers on this Melbourne v Adelaide game beautifully. I'm already there!

Don't know whether you can get me as excited about the Bulldogs with points. Surely the loss of Darcy has to hurt?! I think the line is too close to go near.

 

[MrChristo]

Like the sound of that PAWA....although I don't really like the sound of Goodwin, Johncock and Skipworth all being in doubt...

Definately looks like a 'dog weekend to me, and I'd say if you took every dog you'd come out in front.

Geelong have to be a big show with Gehrig and possibly Hamill out.
Could anyone take the Tige's as favs? Carlton sure won't roll over and die like Port did last week.
Sydney will be lucky to score 22 points, let alone win by that many.
The travel/ground size (BIG!)/weather don't really allow for big scores down here in Launceston, so WC might be hard pressed to cover 4 goals...esp when both previous meetings have both ended within a goal!
Port a favs against a 5-1 team that own them?
Collingwood belted Freo over there last year without Rocca in the side...And wouldn't it be the Dockers all over to follow up one of their best away wins for years with a loss at home to a bottome team?

One more thing I am looking at (depending on these injuries and the weather) is Adelaide to kick the highest score for the round @ $23!!!

Besides the scoring this year, in the last 3 meetings the Crows have scored 145, 138 and 130 (MCG)...They also kicked 133 @ the MCG last year v. Hawthorn.

$23 does seem very generous indeed.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Three Express picks to come and your thoughts tend to back them all!!

I hope that's a good sign. :mj14:

 

[pbg]

tab footyquad.

tab footyquad.

I have being guided by this forum now for many years and find it a great guide to afl punting. Anyway the TAB footyquad has now become a very popular betting medium in the Diamond Valley area where I live. I know of 2 large syndicates who each bet at least $1500 per week. It involves 4 matches each round (not fri nite) and you must select the winner in 12 point increment brackets.
The Anzac round saw 4 favourites win and the dividend was $135k!!!
the pool is around 250k a week.
in view of this I would be very thankful if the posters on this forum could give some advice on the games that encompass the footy quad. I am not looking for sure fire winners, just some guidance on who you think will win and what margin do you think is most likely.

 

[Cartman88]

Hi Guys,

A bit pushed for time this week - plays for the Fri/Sat games are as follows:

Adelaide +17.5 vs Melbourne (2 units)
Carlton +7.5 vs Richmond (1 unit)
Essendon +20.5 vs Sydney (2 units)

pbg,

Footy Quad always tough to pick but if I had to have a crack on the 4 games involved this week I would go:

Carlton 1-12
Geelong 1-12
Brisbane 37-48
Sydney 1-12

 

[PAWAQATSI]

pbg

The ol' Tab Footy quad is that elusive 'holy grail' of football betting!!

First attempted by myself around 10 years ago for a season and a half before surrendering to the pain. The pain of missing that damned 4th leg!! Came within 10, 7 & 5 points way back when.
Checked the history. Did the numbers. Which number games tended to be played interstate. Average winning margins and the like. But the heartbreak got too much!! :cursin:

Suffice to say, other numbers and ideas took over and I strayed off on a different course.

I have by chance taken it up again this season, though more of a favour to a mate who wants to dabble on the footy this season. He played the quad on and off over the years and we had a good chat about it.

The thing is....I'm a greedy bastard. I don't want to win a 15k - 20k slice of the pool. I'd rather catch the bigger fish pool when the upsets come in. I suggested to him that we take 'set' numbers for each game and then just run those same numbers each week, much like lotto. So we don't have to argue about which team, in which game, and by how much. 3x4x3x4. We don't even know which teams we've got until the ticket is printed! The good thing about this is that you have a good chance of stumbling on that elusive upset which will cause the prizepool to skyrocket. The upset selection that a normal man would never even think of picking (Hawthorn over Brisbane by 46points a few weeks ago for example!!).

6 weeks in and we've had a couple of 2 legs and a 3 leg. Minimal stress involved.

The way I see it, the only way someone could win those bigger 70 odd K banks is by running numbers with a syndicate....and good luck to 'em!

To win the quad on your own choosing with just a few picks is a very tough ask.

I probably rambled on abit but you get the gist.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Where you hiding Bomber?? :shrug:


Too much of this??

>> :drinky:

>> :mj12:

>> :mj02:









:142lmao:

 

[MrChristo]

Essendon+21.5

Just find it impossible for Sydney to give this many points. They average 77 points a game! As badly as Essendon have been traveling, they have 23 more inside 50's than the Swans, are slightly better at the clearances and their backline has been tighter.
The Bombers lost by 20 points in the same meeting last year, but had 5 more inside 50's and 5 more shots, but kicked 12.18.
Hird and Solomon are out, but Bradley is in and McPhee (he played last year but was injured very early)...But more importantly Ball, Dolyle, Williams out for Sydney, and Hall in nowhere near the form he was last year.
Again, most people are just remembering last week's results, but Sydney don't have a Jonathon Brown in their line-up!

Oh, and I do like hitching a ride with the Express every now and then

(Also really like Collingwood, but will wait because there are some doubtful players that might not make the trip.)

pbg, I'm flat out getting a winner...any winner, let alone in 12 point increments!

 

[MrChristo]

Melbourne v. Adelaide

0.74 units OVER 201.5 (2.35)
0.26 units 182-201 (3.90) [Will give money back]

Rather than taking the Crows to kick the highest score, I'll go this way.
The last 3 meetings have all topped 200, and none of the last 4 meetings @ the MCG have gone under 182.
Melbourne have kicked at least 94 points in eavery game this year @ 116, Crows have av. 102 ppg over their last 5.
Melbourne's defense has already been discussed!
Fine, calm night in Melborne.
Also interesting to note that all the Friday night games have been reasonably high scoring, so maybe the big stage makes for a more open game.

 

[beast2]

Round 7 Plays

Adelaide +17.5 d Melbourne

More Plays Later

Craig

 

[bombercoops]

I guess I am somewhat hiding paw. In thailand with a mate at the moment and 'loving' every minute of it. Found this internet place that costs about $2 per hour to use. Expensive I know. Held back last week in preparation for some spending money over here. Get to watch the footy over here tonight, aswell as the dons game tomorrow so I'm pretty jacked up about it all. Like the crows also tonight and like the cats to get it done against the sainters tomorrow. Gehrig loss is big and the whole cats structure this year looks solid. Still yet to check other games but it seems that you guys have got it all covered as per usual. Like the calls for the weekend christo.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Don't bring anything back with ya Bomber!! :nono:


:142lmao:

 

[beast2]

Further Plays

Richmond -8.5 d Carlton
St Kilda d Geelong

Craig

 

[MrChristo]

I honestly don't think the Bullies are without a show here.

Oh....they are so much more than a show!! :clap: :clap:

And yes bomber...I tipped 'em

 

[PAWAQATSI]

You've gotta be rapped Christo?!!

Just caught the Bulldogs v Brisbane score and I can't believe your guys have beat 'em up there!

Well done. Sets up our clash next week huh?

:chairshot :thefinger


:box2:

 

[MrChristo]

Oh yeah, PAWA.

Probably ruins us from a betting point of view, but bloody happy none the less!
I'll be over next week to watch it too mate, so might cacth up at some stage?
I'll wiz you an email, see what we can come up with.

 

[MrChristo]

Just a heads up from here in Tas....

...overcast, but not cold, no wind and no sign of rain.

Should be a good game of footy...now whether to go along or not?

 

[MrChristo]

Fremantle v. Collingwood

0.74 units under 171.5 (2.35)
0.26 units 172-191 (3.90) [Will give money back]

The last 4 meetings have been 179 (Subi), 142 (Dome), 157 (MCG), 169 (Subi).
In 6 games this season, Collingwood have topped 192 only twice, but against the Bulldogs and Carlton, 2 bad defensive teams.
they have scored over 90 themselves only once, and average 85.5 ppg.
Freo av. 87 ppg this season, but the last two have been against 2 bad defensive teams (Carlton, Melbourne).
4 of their games have gone under 172 and only 1 over 192.
3 of Freo's last 5 @ home have gone under 172 and none over 192.
Collingwood's last 6 @ Subi (since 1996!) have been 177, 172, 209 (as big favs), 169, 170, 179.

Looks to be a bit of wind about over west, so it's hard to see too much scoring in this one.

 

[Cartman88]

Adding one more play:

Collingwood +30.5 vs Fremantle (1 unit)

Was up at the Gabba for last nights match - some of the older Brisbane players are really struggling for pace this season - every time play switched or opened up the Wstn Bulldogs players easily got a few yards ahead of their opponent and almost seemed to mark at will.

They really missed Bradshaw who would have been a nice target to support Brown - in saying this the delivery inside 50 was not exactly swift and young Moody was one of the better Brisbane players.

It is the first time since 1998 they have lost three consecutive home games - with a trip to Adelaide next week it is likely they will be 2-6 and it is becoming a real possibility they could miss the finals this season.