AFL Rd. 9.

[MrChristo]

17-12' (+3.69)

Richmond +17.5

Brisbane simply aren't the side they once were. That's it really!
Despite winning the game last week, they were completely out-played. Adelaide had 23 shots to 17, 47 clearances to 36 and 58 inside 50's to 40!!! Given that the Tigers are better than Adelaide in all 3 of those catagories, we can expect some similar numbers this week, which will lead to Richmond kicking a winning score.
Sure, the Tiges left it until the last 5 minutes to overcome Collingwood last week but they had 19 more inside 50's (65 to 46) and more than double the clearances (35 to 17!).
Power out for Brisbane hurts their midfield even further.
Richmond's 2 losses this season have been against legitimate top 4 teams...Brisbane aren't that.
Richmond big chance for a win, love getting nearly 3 goals.
oh, Richmond lost by 18 points up there last year when they were 15th v. 2nd as 10.00 underdogs!! :scared

 

[MrChristo]

Doggies +11.5 (1.85)

Sydney don't score enough to give points to anyone, especially a Bulldogs team that will find a way to score.
Their highest score for the year has been 94 points v. a poor Essendon, and they've averaged just 72 in their last 5 games.
Of course they rely on their backline and defensive midfield to win games, but take out a very poor Port team and a very immature Hawks in rd. 1 and they've allowed 81+ in all remaining 6 games.
Statistically, Sydney's defense is comparable to Geelong, and the Dogs had 45 points at HT @ Geelong before their structure crumbled with the loss of Darcy.
In the last 5 games the Bulldogs have kicked 82 goals to Sydney's 48!, and allowed 78 to Sydney's 67.
Remarkably, the teams have played 5 common opponents so far this season (Melbourne, Richmond, Kangaroos, West Coast and Adelaide), and the Bulldogs have done better in all 5 games.
No reason at all why the Doggies won't make it 3 wins in a row.

Go Doggies!!....(Oh, and a hearty Go Tiges too! )

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Good to see you "on board" this week C!! :brows:

 

[Cartman88]

3 plays for me this week ....

Port Adelaide -17.5 vs Essendon
Wstn Bulldogs +8.5 vs Sydney (2 units)
Hawthorn +27.5 vs Fremantle

Glad I didn't back Judd for the Brownlow now !!!!

 

[MrChristo]

Yeah, for sure Cartman. I'm guessing there will be a LOT of upset punters this week. But, them's the short falls of long term betting, huh.

West Coast-29.5

Been keeping my eye on the weather map for a few days, but I'm pretty sure it'll be a fine, clear day in Melbourne Saturday afternoon.
First v. last. Two teams heading in very different directions.
Collingwood showed last week that they can flood all they want, but eventually they'll get tired and over-run.
I just don't see how they'll score in this game. West Coast have allowed only 159 shots at goal this season, and they've allowed the second least inside 50's (364).
Over the last 5 games they have allowed a shot at goal every 2.32 entries into the 50, which is the best by a long way!
Collingwood have topped 90 only once this season (their only win), and that doesn't figure to change as the Eagles have allowed one score over 84 in 8 games!
The midfield of the Eagles is so far superior to the 'Pies it's silly, and Cox in the ruck will be giving them first use all day.
Fine day = big win to the Eagles.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

I'm liking Port too Cartman. As much as they have struggled to show their form this season, it must be remembered that Essendon are pure trash and 3 goals isn't much for Port to cover when at home.

Bulldogs are locked in as play earlier in the week with a huge chance to win it outright up in Sydney. Christo and I watched em first hand last week with differing reactions. PAWA>> :142crying Christo>> :spotting:

Melbourne should cover but with Carlton playing their last ever game @ Prince's Park their is too much "X factor" here for my liking! They could just nut out a victory.

Kinda keen on the Tigers and played them with the system already.

The other game that interests me is my Roos getting +28.5 start down at Geelong!
Now well may you laugh...but I do know my team and this is one side that we always play hard. Coming off three straight losses, the guys will be fired up to get a win. We'll just get 'pipped' but cover this generous line. Worth considering in any 'multis' I reckon.

 

[MrChristo]

Bulldogs are locked in as play earlier in the week with a huge chance to win it outright up in Sydney. Christo and I watched em first hand last week with differing reactions. PAWA>> :142crying Christo>> :spotting:

Now come on mate, you weren't quite in tears! :mj07:

Definately agree with Melbourne/Carlton. The line looks fishy as hell to me! Shouldn't the Dees be 20 point favs at least? Just not prepared to play it as the gift it seems.
As for the Geelong game, I think I'm going to be more interested in the total. Early thoughts were for the Cats to have a big win, but your boys ahev a great record down there, PAWA...Also think Corey out will hurt the Cats a bit.

Good luck this week guys, we all seem to be on the same page once again. :mj14:

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Now come on mate, you weren't quite in tears! :mj07:

I was crying on the inside. I had to put on a brave face in front of your girlfriend!

I'm telling ya....my Roos will cover.

 

[MrChristo]

I was crying on the inside. I had to put on a brave face in front of your girlfriend!

I'm telling ya....my Roos will cover.

nothin' to be ashamed of mate, she's seen me sobbing in my beer a few times! :cursin:

How about the Crows tonight, hey!

You'd be pretty happy with that result, beast. Their midfield and defense has been good all season, when they can score goals they look a very good side indeed.

(I'm all for it too...Got a 6 pack with my father in law that Adelaide will make the 8! )

 

[beast2]

Was very happy with the Crows last night. Couldn't believe the turn around after quarter time.

Round 9 Plays
Melbourne -5.5 d Carlton
West Coast -28.5 d Collingwood

Maybe more plays later

Craig

 

[MrChristo]

Port v. Essendon....
over 194.5 (2.35)...0.75 units
174-194 (3.90)...0.25 (money back)

Ports last 5 at home have been 191, 194, 218, 180 and 158 v. Brisbane but in strong winds, and they've scored 119, 95 and 109 in their last 3 @ home, and over the last 5 games Essendon have allowed the second most inside 50's (behind Collingwood).
Two games at AAMI last season, the Bombers went 219 and 220.
Essendon's last 5 games have been 199, 184, 214, 152 (kicked 11.17 v. Collingwood who strugle to score), and 206.
Port talking about playing more attacking football, should see some scoring tonight.

 

[MrChristo]

Well, Pawa, with hands-a-trembling I took Geelong -24.5 today. Was pretty happy at 3/4 given they haven't lost a last quarter all year!

As for the Dogs...another game of wasted chances. Poor kicking letting us down yet again.
Mind you, Grant going down in the 3rd hurt bad, as O'Loughlan and Vogels kicked 7 from that point on.
Still, one 'positive' of the loss....could we actually be underdogs v. Essendon next week? Sure hope so!

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Christo...I just want to know who that turkey was that took a shot at goal with 1 minute to go to blow our Bulldog cover? Fair dinkum! I could have kicked it!
I'd like to see 'em as dogs next week!

As for the Kangaroos...they will no longer be mentioned as "my "....I am just too ashamed! :nooo:
Expect Brisbane to comfortably get back on the winners list next week.

The Cats can play and I'm tipping 'em to be there on that September afternoon. Against whom, Im not quite sure.