AFL Round 11

[Cartman88]

Hi Guys,

It was a tough round last week but I am going to stick with the same formula that was working so well prior to that. Here are my thoughts on Round 11 and there does look to be some value.

Fri 7.40pm AEST @ Colonial Stadium
St Kilda $7.00 (+47.5) vs Essendon $1.08 (-47.5)

No Play

St Kilda are travelling poorly with their record standing 2-8 and injuries really hurting the team. They are hit by more injuries this week and will lose Lawrence, Burke & Loewe. Essendon did not play well against Brisbane last week and will be looking to bounce back with a big game. They look likely to regain Barnes & Moorcroft but Fletcher has been giving one week suspension by the judiciary. I have a slight lean towards Essendon to cover the spread but not with any confidence.

Sat 2.10pm AEST @ Colonial Stadium
Geelong $2.20 (+10.5) vs Hawthorn $1.65 (-10.5)

No Play

After an ordinary start to the season Geelong have shown signs of improvement in recents weeks. They beat Fremantle and Richmond followed by a competitive game against Adelaide. However I still consider them one of the bottom few teams and believe they lack the firepower to match the top sides. Hawthorn were unbeaten after 9 rounds before convincing losses against Essendon & Port Adelaide. Some say these losses will hurt them mentally but I think they have the right attitude to take some positives from these games. Hawthorn have won 9 of their last 11 games against Geelong and originally I had expected them to prove too classy. However they will go into this game missing Crawford (knee) Holland (shoulder) Chick (hamstring) Rehn (calf) and now Barker (suspended). That throws enough doubt in my mind to leave this game alone.

Sat 7.40pm AEST @ Subiaco
West Coast $4.00 (+28.5) vs Brisbane $1.25 (-28.5)

Playing Brisbane ?28.5

What can you say about the West Coast after they were smashed by over 100 pts last week. They continue to be plagued by injuries and confidence/team morale has to be really low. They just don?t have the players to kick a winning score at present. Brisbane are a talented but incosistent team. Their win against Essendon last week will give them plenty of self believe and could be just what they needed to start making a charge towards the Top 4. Subiaco is not the daunting ground it used to be and Brisbane really should win this one easily. I had the line around 34 points here so I am happy to back Brisbane at ?28.5 points.

Sat 7.40pm AEST @ Football Park
Adelaide $1.45 (-15.5) vs Wstn Bulldogs $2.60 (+15.5)

No Play

In my opinion this is the most interesting game of the round. Adelaide have won 6 of their last 7 matches, their midfield continues to impress, and they have no major injury concerns. Wstn Bulldogs had won 3 in a row before they were disappointing against the Kangaroos last week. They are one of the few teams that have a good record at Footy Park winning their past 3 matches there. It is expected that Terry Wallace may use flooding tactics to slow this game down and in the process make it a low scoring affair. I expect Adelaide to win this one but not by a big margin so no play for me here.

Sun 2.10pm AEST @ Colonial Stadium
Kangaroos $1.16 (-36.5) vs Fremantle $5.00 (+36.5)

Playing Fremantle +36.5

Kangaroos were under huge pressure a few weeks ago and to their credit they have bounced back. They put together good wins against Collingwood St Kilda & Wstn Bulldogs with their only loss being a competitive game against Carlton. Whilst Carey is back on the injured list most of the other senior players are coming back into form. Fremantle are 0-10 for the year and new coach Ben Allan has a tough time ahead. In earlier rounds they were at least competitive but more recently this has not been the case. Peter Bell will be out to play a big game against his old club. Whilst I think the Kangaroos will win this one I am surprised to see a side that lies 12th on the ladder can be giving 6 goals head start to any team. I think Fremantle are capable of staying in this match and I am taking the generous +36.5 points on offer.

Sun 2.10pm AEST @ MCG
Richmond $2.75 (+16.5) vs Carlton $1.40 (-16.5)

Playing Carlton ?16.5

Richmond did return to the winners circle against Fremantle last week but their overall form has been mediocre since they were hammered by Essendon in Round 7. Ottens is playing good footy and there is a good chance Richardson will return to the side for this game. Carlton have looked impressive in recent weeks winning their past 4 matches. Their class players are putting it together and everyone will be keen to play a big game for Silvagni?s 300th. I think Carlton are a class above Richmond here and should cover the spread.

Sun 2.10pm AEST @ SCG
Sydney $2.60 (+15.5) vs Port Adelaide$1.45 (-15.5)

Playing Port Adelaide ?15.5

Sydney have regained some confidence after wins against Fremantle and Collingwood, but injuries are a big concern. Cresswell Goodes and Kirk all in doubt although Ball Seymour and Kelly possibly come back in to the side. Port Adelaide continued to impress when they easily defeated Hawthorn and having Primus back makes these team even stronger. Media reports suggest Sydney will use flooding tactics but Port Adelaide are going to the SCG with a plan to counter this. To me Port Adelaide look the better side and should cover the spread.

Sun 2.10pm AEST @ MCG
Melbourne $1.60 (-12.5) vs Collingwood $2.30 (+12.5)

Playing Collingwood +12.5 if Buckley plays

Melbourne defeated St Kilda last week to put a bad run of form and the off field dramas behind them, but it took them until the 4th quarter to put them away. Farmer will probably play at least part of this game. Collingwood had looked very solid until an ordinary effort against Sydney last week and I am sure coach Mick Malthouse will be getting stuck into them this week. The key to this game is whether Nathan Buckley is available, and he is 50/50 at the moment. Should he play I think Collingwood are at least an even money chance. This makes the +12.5 points well worth a bet. Should he not play then Collingwood lose some of their direction and whilst I would give them a chance I wouldn?t back them.

Summary of Plays:

Brisbane ?28.5
Fremantle +36.5
Carlton ?16.5
Port Adelaide ?16.5
Collingwood +12.5 if Buckley plays

For those that like parlays Essendon + Brisbane + Carlton + Port Adelaide paying around $2.75 looks hard to beat.

Good luck to everyone !!!!

 

[gloveski]

At first glance i like Brisbane and Carlton and a slight lean towards Melbourne,I feel Essendon line is to big but will stick with my only rule never back against Essendon.Back with selections later in the week.

 

[Cartman88]

There has been some real changes in the lines during the past 24 hours. I have just had a look at the markets with Centrebet, DAS & Sportodds and here is the latest:

Essendon vs St Kilda varies from 44.5 to 47.5
Geelong vs Hawthorn now pk (Hawthorn have many players out)
West Coast vs Brisbane varies from 29.5 to 31.5
Adelaide vs Wstn Bulldogs varies from 11.5 to 12.5
Kangaroos vs Fremantle is now 35.5
Richmond vs Carlton is now 20.5
Sydney vs Port Adelaide varies from 12.5 to 14.5
Melbourne vs Collingwood varies from 10.5 to 12.5

I'm glad I got on early with most of my plays (the exception being Port Adelaide who have gone the other way).

I am also adding that 4 team parlay I listed in my original post to my plays. This is presently paying $2.92 with Centrebet (compared to $2.58 with DAS and $2.69 with Sportodds).

 

[Fred]

Despite the injuries i'm betting Hawthorn pk

Teams can (hopefully) cover injuries eg Carlton beating Essendon (extreme example). But it gives 'lesser lights' a chance to shine. I think the spread indicates an over valueing of injuries and susp.

There's no shame in having lost to the Dons and Port either.

It's not at Kardinia Park

Aside from that, an 8-2 record v 4-6 record screams value at pk

AFL record 2-0 +2.2 units (1 ats 1 m/l)

Good luck

 

[gloveski]

season to date 16-15 pick4 1-1 +2.05

Picks
Brisbane -29.5
Normally I wouls stear clear of this game at the line but their has been plenty of talk in brisbane of not having a let down after beating Essendon.West Coast are a shadow of their former selves and really on few to many and with leppitsch back for Brisbane it may be time to prove they can win away from home against mediocre apponents.

Carlton -20.5
One of Carlton's Favourite sons 300th. The players would be seething if they lost this one on sos.Richmonds midfield has been ordinary of late and one of their prime movers in Knights is under the pump to keep his spot.Carlton's midfield way to strong in this one.Only worries is Carlton don't really have good matchups for Richardson and Ottens,and Kouta is under an injury cloud.

Melbourne -12.5

I feel Collingwoods young guns may struggle for leadership without Buckley and Burns this will also put alot of pressure on O'Bree in the midfield.Tarrant looms as the key for Collingwood i feel if they are to win he may need to kick around six.Melbourne's forward line with the likes of Robertson,Schwarze,Nietz,Green and the returning Farmer looks to strong

Pick 4
For 1 unit
Brisbane
Kangaroos
Carlton
Melbourne
Paying around $3.01 at Centrebet

Goodluck to all this weekend.

 

[beast2]

Round 11 Plays:

Fri 7.40pm AEST @ Colonial Stadium
St Kilda $7.00 (+47.5) vs Essendon $1.08 (-47.5)

No Play

St Kilda are still struggling after being absolutely hammered by Melbourne in a pathethic last quarter display. Essendon on the other hand are a very unpredictable team for people trying to back them with the points. Clearly, at the best they should have covered every point spread this year but have been happy to just win games except when a team threatens to challenge their dominance. I can not recommend a play on Essendon as after a loss Essendon may just be happy to take 4 points no matter what the margin.

Sat 2.10pm AEST @ Colonial Stadium
Geelong $2.20 (+10.5) vs Hawthorn $1.65 (-10.5)

No Play

After seeing Geelong play against Adelaide last week I do not rate them very highly at all. Their ridiculous flooding tactics basically meant that while they stopped Adelaide scoring the ball wasn't in their half of the ground long enough for them to have any chane of kicking a winning score. Hawthorn on the other hand can be a top four side but only if they have their best players on the ground. With players such as Rehn, Crawford, Holland and Chick missing through injury and Barker susopended they will really struggle as they did against Port last week. If Hawthorn were at full strength this would be an easy pick but they aren't and how much the injuries will affect them is unknown therefore I can not recommend a play on this game.


Sat 7.40pm AEST @ Subiaco
West Coast $4.00 (+28.5) vs Brisbane $1.25 (-28.5)

Playing Brisbane -28.5

I made a statement in this group a few weeks ago that West Coast were the worst team in the AFL. Over the last 6 weeks I have seen nothing to contradict that statement. The loss against Carlton was disgraceful as I think that would be the earliest time ever I was going to collect on a 45 point favorite. Last weeks loss has seen West Coasts average losing margin over the last 6 weeks increase to 70+ points. Brisbane are on a high after their win against Essendon. The only factor in such a low spread is the travelling from Brisbane to Perth. With West Coast winning only 1 of there last 12 I strongly recommend you get on Brisbane.

Sat 7.40pm AEST @ Football Park
Adelaide $1.45 (-15.5) vs Wstn Bulldogs $2.60 (+15.5)

Play Adelaide -15.5

Adelaide are in fantastic form winning 6 out of their last 7. Bulldogs had won 3 straight before last weeks 50 point thrashing by the Kangaroos. While the Bulldogs have won the last few games against Adelaide at Footy Park, if I remember correctly, these wins came at times when Adelaide were in a stretch of losses or at the end of the season when the players didn't really care. After last week I expect Adelaide to have a game plan to counteract any flooding tactics that may be employed. Adelaide have won but failed to cover in their last two home games against Freo and Geelong but I expect it to be third time lucky and will be backing Adelaide.

WARNING * I am Adelaide Fan and my opinions on this game may be slightly bias *

Sun 2.10pm AEST @ Colonial Stadium
Kangaroos $1.16 (-36.5) vs Fremantle $5.00 (+36.5)

No Play

There is not much to be said about this game. Fremantle sacked a coach and that was not enough to inspire the players. Kangaroos have started to return to some form with their win against Western Bulldogs. Carey missing didn't seem to hurt them when he left the ground last week. While this seems like a big spread I cannot back Fremantle under any circumstances at the moment.

Sun 2.10pm AEST @ MCG
Richmond $2.75 (+16.5) vs Carlton $1.40 (-16.5)

Playing Carlton -16.5

This on of the games that stood out at mean when I first saw the lines. Carlton have won there last 4 in a row and a number of their key players are in great form. Richmond are at the other end having won only 1 of their last 5 and the win was against lowly Fremantle. Another factor to take into account is that Carlton played an easy game against West Coast while Richmond travelled to Perth. If we take the last month into account Carlton should cover this spread easily.

Sun 2.10pm AEST @ SCG
Sydney $2.60 (+15.5) vs Port Adelaide$1.45 (-15.5)

Playing Port Adelaide -15.5

Port are arguably the hottest team going around at the moment. They are now even winning in Melbourne a place that in the past has proven a major obstacle. Sydney have been disappointing this year but two wins in a row will have improved team morale. The return of Primus after 1 week was a huge benefit to Port. Sydneys win over Collingwood last week has probably meant this line is a lot closer than it should be and thereturn of Paul Kelly will be a bonus. Despite that I don't see Sydney matching it with Port and therefore recommend backing Port.


Sun 2.10pm AEST @ MCG
Melbourne $1.60 (-12.5) vs Collingwood $2.30 (+12.5)

Play Melbourne -12.5

Collingwood without Buckley a nowhere near the same side as with Buckley. It may just be a mental thing but it is time for Collingwood to stand up and show they do not rely on Buckley too much. Melbournes has only won 14 of 40 quarters this years with all there wins being setup by a burst in one particular quarter. My opinion on this game is to back Melbourne as I seeing Collingwood really struggling without Buckley.


Summary of Plays:
Brisbane -28.5
Adelaide -15.5 (Line now at -10.5)
Carlton -16.5 (Line now at -20.5)
Port -15.5 (Line now at -11.5)
Melbourne -12.5

Craig

 

[Anders]

AFL Rd 11:

Gonna attempt a wee write-up with this week's picks but please don't jump all over these

Think my Season to Date record is, erm, damn can't remember, a couple/few games over .500; working from home after one too many Black Russians and a too-large Indian takeaway curry (Beef Madras, Tandoori Chicken, Naan Bread, Samosas, Bhajees, Sheek Kebabs....burrrppp

Game 2) Geelong v Hawthorn

Going with Fred - how are ya mate! - on this one. Admittedly the Hawks' injury list looks bad and the Cats have found some form but agree the line may be an over-reaction to those factors. Not worried about losses to the Bombers and Port and think they can bounce back and will be targeting a win at Colonial.
PLAY HAWTHORN PICK 'EM

Game 3) West Coast v Brisbane

The Eagles are a rabble. Short on talent to begin with and now wracked by injuries, their cause shouldn't be helped by "Judge Dread" - damn that's a funny pun-tastic nickname I've just given Ken

- throwing in a crop of untested youngsters. But he has no other option. Usually tough to back the Lions away, especially laying this much wood, but rather than suffer a downswing from the huge win over the Bombers, I think they will go to Subiaco buzzing - especially with Leppitsch and McDonald back - and give the hapless Eagles, who could yet be without Matera and Wirripunda - another towelling. Got a nice line at Vic TAB Sportsbet so will...
PLAY BRISBANE -26.5

Game 4) Adelaide v Bulldogs

Going with the Doggies in more ways than one. Adelaide are on a hot streak and have a fine midfield. But the Dogs are capable of keeping this one mighty close once Wallace's flood comes down. In a tight contest, I'll take the side getting points and punt for an Anders' "Doggy Style" play...
PLAY BULLDOGS +15.5

Game 6) Sydney v Pt Adelaide

The return of ace ruckman Matthew Primus last weekend bolstered Port both on and off the park. On field he has been untouchable and combining with the likes of Francou has easily made Port the surprise package of 2001 since the pre-season. Equally important was how much of a boost his rapid return from what seemed like a serious knee injury would have given to the psychological side of the game; his team-mates realising what sort of commitment he was making to ensure their good early form didn't fade away. While Eade may have gone overboard about last weekend's shock win, and Paul Kelly returns - man I love that guy; "From St Kilda to King's Cross", "Leaps and Bounds", "Deeper Water", "Wintercoat", "To Her Door"

- the Swans are struggling to field a team and the on-fire visitors are more than capable of covering.
PLAY PORT ADELAIDE -11.5

Game 7) Richmond v Carlton

It's head over heart time. How can I back against the god-like Silvagni on his 300th appearance? How much will I regret this? Oh well. Carlton must have taken nothing out of last weekend's "non-match" v the Eagles. But while it was shabby, Richmond's win at Fremantle when all the public money went on Fremantle as a pick 'em under their new coach was a major triumph in stopping a worrying slide. Now with Richardson back and Ottens still playing well, think the Tigers can stay close at the MCG.
PLAY RICHMOND +21.5

That's all folks...

GLTA

 

[AussieVamp2]

Hah.

Put Judge Death in charge of the Eagles, might whip them into shape.

 

[AussieVamp2]

Fred, Hawthorn actually enjoyed playing at Kardinia a bit recently I think anyway, few bullshit wins pulled out there.

Adelaide as a fave again beast? At least it is under 3 goals I guess.

Some bizarre games between Bulldogs and Adelaide recently I think, sounds a bit yucky.

 

[AussieVamp2]

Well left on St Kilda too it seems

was thinking about this a bit, and after Essendon's horror game, Saints might have been the go - but urk, with how close this was

did not see it, what happened in this game?

 

[AussieVamp2]

and a Freo note, they have kept a lot of games close, well maybe not the last one, so 6 goals is a lot - they have struggled a lot with the Roos in the past - but could not go the Kangaroos way in this one yet - the lines were like this (or maybe 40) when they were fully firing and younger, and perhaps Freo was a little better......

 

[gloveski]

Gotta love them Black Russians Anders

 

[Anders]

Oh yeah Gloveski; down they go like lolly water

And the best thing about ordering too much Indian is that there's always leftovers for tea the next nite..
GLTA for the weekend games; will watch City v Country soon cheering on the Over and have got to cover an NBL match tonite before racing back to watch NZ Maori v the Wallabies

 

[BANGA]

Did someone say BLACK RUSSIANS!!!
mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

 

[AussieVamp2]

I see that Brisbane borrowed Adelaide's goalkicking boots?

 

[beast2]

Another shocking result for the group with Brisbane failing to cover probably the game that cost the most people. Another poor record for the group with the results standing at 2-16 (11%!!!!!). This means for a 2 week period our record is 4-26 (13%). The bookies must be loving us.

Results:
Anders 2-3 The only player to post a win
Fred 0-1
Gloveski 0-3 Also lost Pick 4
Cartman88 0-4 Also lost Pick 4
Beast2 0-5

Craig


[This message has been edited by beast2 (edited 06-11-2001).]

 

[Anders]

Beastie - the bookies will only love us for a short time

Frustrating weekend all rd; two goals off going 4-1, Johnson should have won the game for the Hawks and then, as AV said, the Lions forgot to bring their shooting boots when they should have romped home. Should've played my two dogs ML too.
Should've, could've, schmould've ....

 

[Cartman88]

Geez what a tough couple of weeks it has been on the AFL.

I was having a look back through all my AFL plays for the season. After being 21-6 at one stage I am now 24-18. Not too bad overall but very dissapointing considering the great start.

I always use the same method for choosing my plays. Recently many of the games don't seem to be following the form and this makes picking winners very tough.

I'm sure the tide will turn back in our favour shortly.