AFL: Round 11

[bombercoops]

Back in Australia so hopefully the wagering will improve compared to the previous weeks efforts now that I can get all the first hand info on the games, in and outs etc. Can't wait to watch my first footy show of the year tonight also. Anyway, back with plays later.

 

[MrChristo]

23-20 (+3.81)

23-20 (+3.81)

Definately a tight week, imo.

Only one game I really like:
Melbourne +19.5

Actually think the Dees can win this one SU, but will take the points.
If we ignore the Brisbane game (when the Lions were extremely undermanned), Freo have won only 4 of their last 13 @ home by more than 20 points.
The games they did win by more they were HUGE fav's:
They beat Richmond by 23 points as 1.14 favs (Rich 4.75)
They beat Bulldogs by 56 points as 1.13 favs (Dogs 5.00)
They beat Carlton by 47 points as 1.13 favs (Carl 5.25)
They beat Geelong by 26 points as 1.16 favs (Gee 4.50) [And were flattered by the score]

Melbourne are no strangers to winning in Perth...Since 2000 they have won 3 of 6 games, losing 2 by only 7 & 5 points.
A loss only to their 'bogey' ground @ Geelong, and a loss last week @ Brisbane are certainly no disgraces.
With Thompson and Green back this week, I really like Melbourne to get very close if not win this game....esp. with the chance for showers...Freo are terrible in the wet.


Still thinking to play a multi....Ess/Adel/Bris/St. Kilda/Geelong @ 2.43. Can't see too many problems there.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Welcome back bomber

Like a moth drawn back to the mesmerising glow of the bug-zapper.......I'm taking Christo's Bulldogs +23.5 versus Geelong for 2 x U!!
5 wins from their last 6 clashes ( a loss by 7pts)gets me thinking that they don't mind playing against the Cats. I'd also expect them to lift abit after last weeks pathetic display. The young Cats team maybe due for an off day.

'Strong plays' are Essendon, Adelaide (no surprises there) and Port too!! :tongue

Melbourne's second week on the road scares me Christo. Last time they did it they got smashed. Granted they are travelling better this year than last. Just a thought.

 

[MrChristo]

Last years Melbourne team is no comparison to this team, PAWA. I'm very confident of this game.

Good luck with the Doggies. Honestly think they will get pumped. 7 changes from the team that beat Geelong in Rd. 1 last year...and 11 goals out of the team!
Rawlings not 100%...Also Harley didn't play for them in the last game.
Simply can't see where our goals will come from. 4 goals is a fair bit tho..hopefully we can keep it close.
Good news...10 games (back to '97) and they haven't beaten the Dogs by more than 21 points....
Bad news...I just don't think we are upto it this time.


Both the Essendon and Adelaide lines are far too high, but there is no way any sane person could back Carlton or the Hawks.

I was pretty surprised at the Brisbane line, tbh.
Was ready to jump all over Brisbane -20ish!!

Port have had a very soft draw so far...only 3 away games, and they have been pumped in 2 of them....But, yeah, having said that, I think the line is a bit high.

Port won by a point up there last year....IN: Johnson, Lappin, Leppitch, McLaren and Hadley.....OUT: Lynch (2 goals), Keating, McRae, B. Scott, Ashcroft and Caracella.

Port...IN: Wilson, Ebert, Thurstans, Lade
OUT: Carr (who tagged Voss...had 23 touches and 4 goals! ), Montgomerie, Primus, Stevens and Paxman.

Playing: Brisbane/Essendon/Adelaide/Geelong @ 1.99.

 

[CranMan]

I choose to begin this week of A.F.L. by wagering at Pinnacle on Collingwood (-260) to make 1 unit.

In reading info. on this match I like the fact that the Magpies are bringing to the match a stable team (consistency) that has won 2 matches in a row. The Eagles have a questionable traveling record, with an associated poor record at the Telstra Dome.

I have an under 4.5 goals wager on the N.H.L. game this evening to make 1 unit; and upon that wager coming in will add more to the Collingwood moneyline.

Dad has been to the casino twice this week and wants to go on Friday night to wager on Smarty Jones to win Belmont on Saturday. I will join the adventure and select the next set of matches later.

May everyone have a safe and profitable weekend!

CranMan The CrazyMan

 

[bombercoops]

Cheers paw! Glad to be home mate.
I also thought the lines were set too high in the adelaide, essendon and brisbane games, but like you said christo, it is hard to back any of the dogs in these games. Think the hawks will cover IMO but would be more than happy if they didn't as it would certainly help with the percentage of the boys from windy hill. Went to the port/bris game last year when port won by a point and 'aka' got roasted by port supporters when leaving the ground at the end of the game. Was one of the funniest things i have seen at a game since a smart'ass doggies supporter was knocked out cold at a final against the lions back in about 98-99. Anyway, going to the game this weekend and was going to take port until I noticed the 'outs' for them this weekend. Hard to travel to brisbane and compete without the likes of montgomerie, primus, carr, stevens and paxman.
Taking the pies tonight minus the points for 2 units in an attempt to make back some $$ from the last few weeks.

 

[MrChristo]

The more I look at tonights game, the more I'm thinking Collingwood thumping.

The Collingwood stats are a bit misleading, given all the injuries they have had...the only thing that is worrying me is that the Eagles were so close to Essendon in Rd. 3.

Collingwood have won 6 of their last 9 games at the Dome by more than 24 points.
But here's the kicker....Since the start of the 2001 season (13 games) the lowest score West Coast have have conceded is 103!!!..@ 132.6!!
3 games there this season and they have allowed a whopping 147.6 ppg!!!
In absolute stark contrast, Collingwood have allowed 100+ only ONCE in their last 9 games indoors!! (To St. Kilda in Rd 8!)

The Eagles flew all 3 emergencies over, and Sampi is not 100%. Will be interesting to see any late changes.

Just think Collingwood are starting to play some good football, and should be too good. Can they win by 20 tho??

I might join you bomber, I think

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Sorry to "mozz" ya Christo but I'm comin' along for the ride!!

Ya can blame me afterwards!!


:moon:

 

[nehpets]

PLAYS are 1-5 units, most commonly 2 units:

sydney +32.5 2 units, will be at this match, cheering for the cover. giving up 32.5 for this away match yet only 45 & 36 for 'home' matches vs carllton and westcoast the previous 2 weeks. i made this line 20-25 pts. have to go with the home dog here.

port +31.5 2 units, instant attraction to a decent team getting this many points. lions at gabba do have the habit of running away with games, but this spread is suprisingly high.

melbourne +24.5 3 units, very interesting line, especially considering freo didn't do much last week. think melbournes 40 pt loss at hands of brisbane can be forgiven... made freo only 8-12 pt faves here.

Unfortunately all these starts had to be taken @ $1.80,
didn't get to hit the openers...

I would recommend a bit on the head to head market too... here I like to make the ATS face value = to the hd to hd face value ...
(eg sydney @ $4.50 for $200 then sydney +32.5 @1.80 for $500)

also leaning to geelong, but not sure i'll lock it in as a play

 

[MrChristo]

Just confirming I took the Pies -21.5.

Hate going for them!

 

[CranMan]

I got "pucked" for 1.17 unit in the N.H.L. last evening, however my Apr. 5th futures wager on Calgary to win it all is still alive (a $10/$440).

So-I added to the Magpie wager for another unit at the now -248

Wager Type: Money Line
Wager Status: Pending
Risk / To Win Amount: 284.00 / 100.00 (USD)
Date Accepted: 3-June-2004
Time Accepted: 7:18:13 PM (Pacific)
Sport/Period: AFL Football / Game
Teams: Collingwood Magpies vs West Coast Eagles
Game Date: 4-June-2004
Wager Line: Collingwood Magpies -284

I look to unload on the Brisbane Lions moneyline on Saturday!

Go Magpies for everyone and have a good weekend.

CranMan The CrazyMan

 

[MrChristo]

Ya can blame me afterwards!!

:cursin:

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Grab a chair Christo :chairshot


I am the "Kiss of Death" and I'm having trouble shaking it off!!!

 

[bombercoops]

This is getting out of control. Starting to understand how you feel pawa. A loss is one thing but to miss by 2.5 points is almost getting too much. I think the tides are due to turn for all of us pretty quick. Will sit back and enjoy my dons pummeling the hawks this afternoon, now that I have the luxury of being in OZ, and will refire later in the weekend. Time for the lot of us to re-group I think. Maybe some XXXX is the best play of the weekend!

 

[PAWAQATSI]

10 - 17 (-5.93)

Ess / Adel / Bris / Saints / Freo @ $2.45 1u

Haw +45.5 / Adel / Bris / Rich +9.5 / Saints / WB +20.5 @ $11.40 for half unit :tongue

GL guys



and hey......Lets be careful out there!!

 

[beast2]

Year to Date: 19-16

Glad I stayed out of the Collingwood match last night. Wanted a line of -15.5 but could only get -19.5 so steered clear which turned out to be a great move.

No time for write ups today.

Saturday Plays
Adelaide -40.5 d Carlton
Kangaroos -9.5 d Richmond

Craig

 

[MrChristo]

Another shocking round boys!!!

beast...Your boys need to be shot!..esp after being so dominant early.

0-2 so far. Still with my best play of the weekend.

Adding....Kangaroos v. Richmond under 194.5 @ 2.30

 

[beast2]

Christo, I agree the Crows should be shot.

Should have been up 8 goals at quarter time with the game over had we kicked staright.

Then to throw it all away over the next three quarters was unbelievable.

In the end, while a win would have been nice, that form means our ladder position accurately reflects where we are at.

I honestly though that we would have been primed playing at home for only the 4th time this year with an 0-3 record so far this year having played Top 4 opposition in Brisbane, St Kilda and Essendon we would have been too strong. Add to this we were playing a Carlton side who doesn't travel that often and had lost by 100 the previous week.

Craig

 

[MrChristo]

Another loser.

0-3

Good call, beast.

This is embarrasing.

Putting another unit on Melbourne tomorrow...try to salvage something out of this rubbish.

Just to let people know...Geelong down to -15.5 @ Canbet!!
Still -21.5 available. Nice middle.
Would like to know what's going on...That's one hell of a plunge on the Doggies! :shrug:

 

[bombercoops]

Played a late unit on the roos and salvaged something from what has been a terrible past few weeks. Just got back from the bris/port game which was boring to say the least. Port look half the side they have been in the previous 2 years as they lacked run out of the backline and through the middle of the ground, and instead, opted for short kicks that more often then not, led to turnovers and brisbane goals. I know they have some key injuries at the moment but they looked far from a side that will contend come seasons end. Very unimpressed.
On a better note, happy to see the dons get a much needed BIG win so as to help the percentage a little. Should be a good game next week providing there are not too many suspensions after what was one of the largest melays I have seen in a while.
Pawa, i bet you were happy to see Rocca produce some vintage form tonight in his 8 goal haul. They ran away with the game like it was 1996 all over again mate.
Christo, going the other way in the freo game tomorrow. Taking freo on the money line for 2 units so hopefully we can find the middle and both collect.