AFL Round 11

pharlap

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The Lucky Country
YTD 11-7 (+5.2 units)

Richmond -5.5 vs Kangaroos

Fremantle +15.5 vs Bulldogs

Sydney -18.5 vs St Kilda
2 units

Adelaide -12.5 vs Brisbane

Collingwood -6.5 vs Melbourne


Bigger than usual card....probably spells trouble.
 

pharlap

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pharlap said:
Adelaide -12.5 vs Brisbane


This line is now closer to -25.5 due to injury concerns in Brisbane. Personally, I will be staying with my original bet only, but I wouldnt stop anybody wanting to try and middle this bet and perhaps get both sides. A 13 point window of opportunity is probably worth it.

All the best.
 

MrChristo

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Sexlexia...
Upto -27.5 even now!

I got on @ -21.5...Don't se how Brisbane score without Brown...compounded even further obviously if Bradshaw is out.

St. Kilda +19.5

Sydney have shown a few signs in the last 2 weeks that they have hit a bit of a flat spot.
Just 4 more inside 50's and 5 more shots v. Hawthorn, but some good (and bad!) kicking made the score look a lot worse than the game actually was...and like I just mentioned, 2 less inside 50's and 3 less shots v. the Kangas.
The Saints had 11 more inside 50's than Melbourne last week!!!...Their scoring has been down all season, but what killed them was Melbourne scoring every 1.57 entries!..with Neitz kicking 8.
Now, of course Sydney have Hall that could quite easily do the same thing, but the thing that will work in their favour this week is the smaller SCG, which will make it easier for their midfield to get back and fill up space.
Interesting to note that in 5 games at the smaller Dome they have allowed a shot every 2.09, 1.88 (Brisbane), 2.67, 2.36 & 2.76 entries...
...outdoors on bigger grounds they have allowed 1.96 (Perth), 1.81 (AAMI), 1.75 (YP), 2.29 (Carlton, MCG) and 1.57 (MCG)...
...so the smaller ground clearly helps them protect their back 6.

Sydney are just 1-2 on their home ground so far, and interestingly, the stats indicate that the smaller ground may be hurting their scoring also.

I really think the Saints are a genuine chance here, and 3 goals looks a generous start to me.

Kangas +6.5

I'm leaning towards them actually being quite good defensively. They have only allowed 26 shots once since rd. 2, the rest 25 or less...and look at the run they've had;
Coll, Crows both very good defensively.
They 'broke out' with 26 and 27 shots against Melbourne and Hawthorn.
Adelaide, Freo @ Subi and Saints in the dome all very strong defensively...and Sydney!, who are just about the best in the business, they had 28 shots.
Richmond are terrible defensively, and I really have to think that the Kanga's will get more shots on the board...Just hopefully they can get the majority of them on-line!!

Also every chance I'll end up playing West Coast -49.5

Opposite ends of 2 bets pharlap...not great!
 

MrChristo

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Sexlexia...
Bulldogs v. Freo under 191.5 (2.70)
192-211 (3.00) as saver


Got the high number I was after.
Dogs still yet to allow 100 in the Dome this season, av. just 92 ppg.
Freo have only scored 100+ in 3 games this season, against the 3 worst defensive teams in the AFL (Carlton, Port and Richmond).
Only one of Freos games so far has gone over 211 (@ Brisbane, who play a very free flowing game, and have a reasonably poor defense), and 8 of 10 have been under 191.
 

pharlap

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The Lucky Country
3-2 for the weekend (-0.3 units)

Realised I was in trouble in the Sydney/St Kilda match when I saw the weather. Thats what happens when you bet early in the week. Not saying it made a difference to the result, but it certainly would have made a difference to my assessment. Still, you take the good with the bad.

YTD 14-9 (+4.9 units)
 
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