AFL: Round 16

bombercoops

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Okay, hopefully last week was some kind of indication that we actually have some profitable weeks to come. Looking forward to what kind of results your system plucks out of the woodworks this week pawa, but an early look at the ML's has me leaning toward the dons on friday night which I think will be a close game and then possibly freo and the swans. All dogs at about the same price and surely one or two of these could have some value in them. Looking forward to checking out the lines here.
On a different note, glad to see Brown rubbed out for 4 weeks for his high shot on Grant. Too many trips to the tribunal in recent times + a lack of respect for a player in the quality of Grant seems adequete enough reason for the punishment.
 

MrChristo

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Sexlexia...
Yeah, PAWA, Scarlett was a strange one. (Mind you, most tribunal decisions are now!)...Tbh, I didn't think there was much in it, but having been reported, I would have thought it was worth a week??

bomber, don't like any of those to get up....In fact will be betting against all of them! :scared

Already taken West Coast/St. Kilda/Geelong @ 3.00 (x2)

West Coast are decent odds @ 1.55. Can't see Essendon winning this game. Eagles have lost only to Freo and Port @ home this season, won 5, inc. good wins over Brisbane and Geelong. They are a young side and are getting better and better each week. players like kerr, Judd, Cousins and Braun have FAR too much pace for the Essendon midfield, and with big players such as Hanson, Seaby and McDougall up forward all starting to play well, they will be hard to stop. Lucas and Hird out for Essendon are HUGE losses.
Essendon won the Rd. 3 game at the Dome by 6 points, but had 4 less shots, and Hird had 34 possessions and 3 goals.
Don't want to mess with the spread because West Coast have won 4 games by less than 10 points this season, and have shown an annoying ability to give up late 'meaningless' goals.

Geelong also good odds @ 1.50. They haven't lost in their last 6 games @ home, and are currently playing great football. I don't think Sydney's wins have been all that convincing...I really don't think they have had a good win all season. The fact that they have only topped 100 points once since Rd.5 says a lot too. Without Hall kicking a bag, Sydney really struggle to score. Goodes down back, O'Loughlan injured and has been poor, Davis carrying injuries. Now, facing Geelong, who (as I said last week) have given up 100+ only 4 times this year.....Rds 1 & 2 when horribly undermanned, and Freo and @ Port)..In fact in their last 5 games they have allowed an average of 66 points!
Again, don't want to mess with the spread in what could be a messy/low scoring game, but fairly confident Geelong wil get the win.

St. Kilda @ 1.29!! :spotting: ...This has to be the biggest over-reaction in sports betting history!! :clap: The Saints have lost 4 out of 5, but as we all surely now know, they are hardly the Layland Bros!! (ie. They aren't so keen on the great outdoors! ;)). Now, again, back in the dome where they have won their last 12, and only 2 of those wins have been by less than 34 points!!! (Both as dogs...to Kangaroos, and Brisbane!!).
Richmond have scraped passed the Bulldogs and Hawthorn in their last 11 games indoors. They have lost 7 straight games and got BELTED by Essendon last week who were without Fletcher, Bolton, Wellman and Lucas and Hird after 1/2 time.
St. Kilda won the Rd. 3 game by 45 points and had 15 more shots!!!
Sure Gehrig, Penny, McGuire are out of the team, but it won't matter as the Saints midfield will dominate! They average over 60 inside 50's in the dome!!...and Richmond have the equal lowest inside 50's in the league (along with Hawthorn) and the least goals.
This one gets really messy and I have no doubt that St. Kilda win this game.

Will also be playing the Saints -28.5
 

MrChristo

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I see Lloyd didn't train tonight guys ;) ...Go Eagels! :firing:

Rest of the games.....

Adelaide -17.5

This h'cap is the result of Freo's remerkably good away form this season....But they have 'only' beaten a horribly under-manned Collingwood, Richmond and Bulldogs.
Crows have been strangely bad all year....They average nearly 11 more inside 50's @ home than there opposition!!..and are now player much freer football under their new coach.
They only kicked 6 goals last week, but only had 2 less possessions than Sydney and 6 more clearances...Sydney just clogged up the Crows forward line on the small SCG.
Freo have been poor all season. They have won only 3 of their last 10, and are really struiggling to run out games.
Freo have won only 1 of 12 all time @ AAMI.
Crows have won 9 of 14 all time match-ups....7 of 7 @ AAMI...Av. win 55 points...Lowest win 21 points.
Adelaide only lost by 9 points @ Freo in Rd. 3...but had one more scoring shot.
Hard to see Freo getting close in this game.


bomber...If you're after an upset:
Carlton?...Have to be a show to beat the Kanga's @ home....Hoping for Carlton +19.5, but don't reckon I'll get it. Remember when Fevola kicks 5 they win! :clap:
Carlton have bounced back from 3 BIG losses with wins this year??

Doggies?? There's definately been worse 5.50 shots out there!! I know I always go on about how bad the Dogs are in the dome, but it might actually be an advantage in this game. This will be Melbourne's first game in the dome this year, since Rd. 18 last year...when guess what??...The Dogs won as 2.85 underdogs!
Melbourne don't appreciate the lack of space...they really use the space on the MCG well... I think this is shown by their lack of success @ Geelong, which is a similar size ground.
Also fair head to head record...Melbourne have only beaten the Dogs twice in their last 25 meetings by more than 33 points!!....Not once since 1995!!
They only won by 10 points @ the MCG in Rd. 3...(Admittedly having 10 more shots!!).
Harris back should keep Neitz quiet...Grant on Holland....Honestly think we can keep them to a reasonable score...and hence giving the Dogs a real chance to win.
+36.5 is a very good show. Will decide on Sunday.


I have no real doubt that Brisbane win (Lynch's 300th!!), but definately wouldn't mess with the spread. 4 games without Brown this year, Brisbane have beaten Sydney by 2 points @ home, won by 21 @ Adelaide, LOST by 59 @ Freo, won by 40 home v. Melbourne. Not the best record!! Also with the chance of rain in Melbourne will advantage Collingwood. Could be tight.

Again, no real doubt that Port win, but given they have won 4 of 17 @ the MCG, it's nearly impossible to take them. They only beat Hawthorn by 4 points last year as 1.35 fav's.
Best left alone, imo.

Hey...Good luck this week guys. :spotting:
 

MrChristo

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Sexlexia...
*cough* (ECHO....echo....[SIZE=0.5]echo[/SIZE]

Where is everyone?

PAWA, bomber, beast, raledet...our biggest Iowa fan, Cranman!! :)

Any strong plays, PAWA?...'system' picks?

I at least expected some abuse for even suggesting the Dogs were a chance?? :scared ;)
 
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CranMan

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Football Friday in the A.F.L.

Football Friday in the A.F.L.

MrChristo -

Thanks for "calling me out"!

I have been "lurking in the bushes" and guess I became "gun shy" of posting my unorthodox moneyline wagering method.

I have been doing okay in M.L.B., tennis, A.F.L., etc. I pulled a "chunk" from Pinnacle in June and am ready to do so for July.

The info. available to me, including your analysis, has me "licking my chops" at the Eagles -185 @ Pinnacle.

The question is how many units to capture!!!

I am going to bed earlier than usual so I can wake up early and listen to the play-by-play (beginning late in the first quarter).

I will post my final wager before I go visit the "Sandman".

As always, may everyone have a profitable weekend.

CranMan The CrazyMan

P.S. I took the Eagles now at -186 to make 1/2 unit ZZZZZZZZZZZZ
 
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bombercoops

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Been down the gold coast christo lapping up the nice warm weather mate but still managed to make it back without a tan! Anyway, call me crazy but considering I am going back to the U.S on monday it's going to be the last time i see my dons in action tonight so i'm going to lay down 1 unit on them + the points. Hoping they send me off on a high!
After looking more thoroughly at things, I agree that geelong is much more the play than sydney but still think freo is not bad + the points. See how tonight pans out first!
Up the dons! :grins:
 

PAWAQATSI

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the land of confusion
Been a busy week for me......

No express system plays for this week.

Two 'strong plays' in the Kangaroos over Carlton and Port over Hawthorn.
My Roos scare me because these are the 'easy' games that we usually drop and Port's record @ the 'G' is too poor to recomend giving that many points start. Both should win though.

I'm on West Coast minus the points to the Bombers, Brisbane over 15.5pts v Collingwood and Adelaide over15.5pts BIG v Fremantle.
I'm also riding Christo's treble. Looks good.

Good luck fellas
 

bombercoops

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That has to be the worst performance I have seen for a first half since I can remember. They played like the worst team in the comp tonight and should have been belted by 100. Good win by the rest of you on the eagles but I thought I would at least have a poke at the dons while I can see em' live. Unfortuately, I wish I'd left yesterday!
 

nehpets

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Just to let you guys know, the NSW TAB has stopped making it's own AFL lines, and now just copies TABCORP's lines. Stopped about 5 weeks ago because they were losing too much money (due to making ridiculous lines)
Couldn't even survive making their own lines at $1.85! how bad is that!
 

nehpets

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Clone lines are bad for the AFL bettor,
now onthepunt is even offering 'live lines' which, like donbest, makes the market move to a consensus line more quickly and offers the punter less variation :(
 

CranMan

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Previous 72 hr. hold wagers

Previous 72 hr. hold wagers

Mr Christo -

I eluded to The CrazyMan's system and here were the best for May, June, and so far in July:

Wager Type: Money Line
Wager Status: Win
Risk / To Win Amount: 3,250.00 / 1,000.00 (USD)
Date Accepted: 28-May-2004
Time Accepted: 10:10:41 PM (Pacific)
Amount Paid: 4,250.00
Sport/Period: AFL Football / Game
Teams: West Coast Eagles vs Richmond Tigers
Game Date: 28-May-2004
Wager Line: West Coast Eagles -325

Wager Type: Future/Prop
Wager Status: Win
Risk / To Win Amount: 3,281.25 / 525.00 (USD)
Date Accepted: 24-June-2004
Time Accepted: 11:08:33 PM (Pacific)
Amount Paid: 3,806.25
Description: Tennis
Mens Wimbledon Championships, London
Rnd 2. Wimbledon Championships 2004, London
T. Dent v S. Pescosolido
T. Dent -625

Wager Type: Future/Prop
Wager Status: Win
Risk / To Win Amount: 4,779.00 / 708.00 (USD)
Date Accepted: 1-July-2004
Time Accepted: 0:00:17 AM (Pacific)
Amount Paid: 5,487.00
Description: Tennis
Woman's Wimbledon 2004, London
Semi Finals Women's Wimbledon 2004, London
S. Williams v A. Mauresmo
S. Williams -675

I would "love" to find an A.F.L. moneyline wager to "dump on" this weekend, however I am ready to pull from Pinnacle and am becoming more sane as each day passes.

I am looking to wager on the following this weekend:

Carlton +15.5 (sorry PAWA - 2 key return for Blues and Roos may be ripe for a letdown)

St. Kilda ML

Brisbane ML

Adelaide ML

Geelong ML

Port ML

Melbourne ML

I am retiring early again this evening in order to get up at 5 a.m. to take my son fishing at my parents farm pond (have been catching bass, bluegill and crappie).

On Saturday evening I am taking the family to their first county fair in Iowa (figure 8 car races) and will be back to catch the Cats vs. Swans match into the first quarter.

Your wagers are always backed up with sound, solid info. and I can't wait to hear the closet door open as you break out the broom this weekend = SWEEP !!!

CranMan The CrazyMan
 

MrChristo

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Didn't go with the Saints -

1/2 unit on Carlton/Kanga's OVER 175.5

Think the total was low due to expected bad weather....looks like a beautiful day over there. 2 bad defenses. Head to heads favour a high scoring game.
 

beast2

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Adelaide Australia
Here is a story if you think your team is bad. I follow Adelaide in the AFL and in the SANFL (South Australia Football League) I follow Glenelg. Glenelg have now failed to win two games in a row since August 1999 (Yes, it's that long) and last night it got even worse. We are 2nd to bottom and were playing Norwood who were bottom and had sacked the coach during the week. The final score was Norwood 17.12 (114) to 1.4 (10). This was Glenelg's lowest score ever and has now dropped us to bottom on percentage.

No Saturday afternoon plays because my alarm failed to wake me and I was still asleep when the matches kicekd off. Of Course I was definitely going to back St Kilda -25.5 and was leaning towards Carlton with the points at home with there record after being thrashed.

Saturday Night Plays
Brisbane -22.5 d Collingwood
Adelaide -17.5 d Fremantle

Craig
 

MrChristo

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Sexlexia...
Love the way I was going to play Saints -24.5 all week....tipped Carlton top win, but didn't back them, but played a stupid total that didn't ever look close!! :mad:

Did notice that last week nehpets, but didn't really think too much of it until this week when their h'cap lines didn't appear until midday Friday!!
Sure is bad news...only real variation now will come from Pinnacle and Olympic. Starting to use Betfair more often, at least you can usually get 1.95 or better. ;)
 

bombercoops

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Been in a hole for most of the year so have decided to load up tonight in order to make some back. Playing bris -22.5 x4 units against the pies. Hoping this can make back some of my $$ that I have pissed away this season. GL all for tonight's game!
 

Mr Hockey

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Well I joined you guys for the hell of it & played Brisbane -23.5 & Adelaide -16.5

I see Brisbane is up 2 at HT, any opinions on the prospect of them covering?
 

bombercoops

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Hockey, we can only hope that the rain stays away in the second half so that the brisbane midfield can use their pace and start to dominate this game. Signs towards half time look much better than early on. Fingers crossed for a big second half!
 
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