AFL; ROUND 17

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TORONTO-VIGILANTE

ad interim...
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Dec 27, 2000
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"...Quo fas et gloria ducunt..."
moneylines again:

record : 16-4 on moneylines (80%)
and as I've said before, i hate spreads...
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early leans (as usual)

GLOVESKI, thnx for the reminder...~~~

leans:
geelong AT HOME
sydney AT HOME
essendon on the road.
collingwood on the ROAD.

i'm sure i got those right now.

[This message has been edited by TORONTO-VIGILANTE (edited 07-24-2001).]
 
C

Cartman88

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Feb 3, 2001
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I have a good look at the Friday night game and I have decided on a bet.

Wstn Bulldogs $2.05 vs Richmond @ Centrebet

This one should be a spiteful game after the Round 2 clash where these sides got stuck into each other both on the paddock and via the media.

I expect the Wstn Bulldogs to keep this one tight and tough as this traditionally has worked well against Richmond. If it is close at halftime I think the Wstn Bulldogs are mentally tougher and should get home.

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Cartman88

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Some early thoughts on the other games:

Geelong $1.18 should beat St Kilda but there is no way I would back them at that price or to cover the spread.

Adelaide $1.90 probably deserve to be slight shorter than this against Melbourne and I may consider backing them after looking more into that game.

Brisbane $1.75 I expect to beat the Kangaroos in a very important match for both sides. They have won 7 straight and will be boosted by a win in Melbourne a couple of weeks ago. They are playing to help their chances of a home final so lack no motivation. On the other hand the Kangaroos will be very disappointed after giving up a 69 point lead against Essendon and may struggle to bounce back. They are playing for their season and also lack no motivation.

Collingwood $1.25 have a chance to get their season back on track against Freo and should come out blazing. I don't think they will get any of my money though.

Essendon $1.28 are just a champion team and they should carry on their winning way against Port Adelaide. I do think this is a danger game for them though, and I wouldn't bet on or against them here.

Hawthorn vs Carlton is 50/50 in my opinion and the bookies have this about right. I favour Hawthorn slightly and would consider backing them if they get out to $2.10 or more.

Sydney $1.15 should beat West Coast at the SCG but I don't think they deserve to be 42 point favourites against anyone. I will seriously look at backing West Coast at the spread here.
 
A

Anders

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Dec 17, 2000
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Have very similar early leans as u do Eric - gee, there's a surprise
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ever think we were separated at birth?
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By the way, do you - or anyone else here - bet totals on the AFL?
 
G

gloveski

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Mar 29, 2001
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rosebery,tasmania,australia
very hard round to cap this one still undecided but have a few stats for those who are interested

Richmond at night 5-2
bulldogs at night 5-4
Recent night form for both teams is loss/win/loss/win
Slightly leaning to the bullies at +5.5 but will wait to see the line ups.
Have a feeling if the Bulldogs are close at the half they will get the points.Some of Richmonds key players seem to go missing after half time but still expect this one to be a close tussle.(beware richmond will probably smoke them in the 3rd qtr now i have said this)
I like the halftime/fulltime bet of
Richmond/bulldogs at 8.00 at centrebet ,may have a small dabble at this one.

Kangaroos at night 1-4
Lions at night 6-2 (alot of night wins at the gabba though).
I feel if King does not play and with an underdone Carey the Kangas may be missing some drive.Really tuff game this one just can't pull the pin one way or the other.

Interested about people thought's on Collingwood I feel after this week it may be time to fade the pies in a big way. they have a tuff run home and it would not suprise me to see them loose most games from here on in (well after this week anyway), it has been beat up in the media a fair bit this week.They have a young side and they faded badly last year there may be a repeat who knows.
Back tomorrow with my plays.
 
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Cartman88

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Originally posted by Anders:
By the way, do you - or anyone else here - bet totals on the AFL?
Click to expand...

I haven't really got into AFL totals mainly due to the lack of books who offer this option.

As far as I am aware only Sportstab offer AFL totals (on selected matches) and with the $1.85 price it doesn't seem worth the effort at the moment.
 
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gloveski

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rosebery,tasmania,australia
year to date 27-22 (55%)
pick 4 2-3 +3.46

only two selections this week at present
Bulldogs +5.5 (centrebet)
Geelong -34.5 (canbet)

Gone for a bit of value in a pick 4 this week
pick 4
Bulldogs
Melbourne
Geelong
Sydney
For a price of 5.14 at canbet
Also a small dabble on the richmond/Bulldogs halftime/fulltime double at 8.00
Goodluck to all
 
A

Anders

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Dec 17, 2000
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Kinda like the Tigers and the under 206.5 - but haven't done enough homework to pull the trigger...

so GL gloveski, make some pingers
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N

nomad

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Anders, what did you want to know regarding the total points market? I've followed this market for the last few years and at the start of the season went 7-0. Cartman is right about the $1.85 lines not being great value week in week out. If you are selective and really only play the ones that you feel are very wrong then the $1.85 can sometimes seem very good value. Once I even stooped to taking the $1.65 when there was a bit of weather around.
 
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Cartman88

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Originally posted by nomad:
If you are selective and really only play the ones that you feel are very wrong then the $1.85 can sometimes seem very good value.
Click to expand...

This is a good point that even $1.85 can be value if the play is strong enough. I guess it comes down to how much time you need to spend doing the sums to come up with that one good total every 2 or 3 weeks.
 
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Cartman88

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Feb 3, 2001
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Unfortunately the bad luck continues to haunt me on the AFL.

I backed the Wstn Bulldogs on Fri night paying $2.05 and they lose by 2 points after looking home in the final quarter. If I had of taken the +3.5 spread (which I usually do in close games) then it would have been a winner.

Then I get stuck at work all day Saturday and didn't get to back Adelaide or Brisbane who both won.

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But today in another day and I do have what appears to be a strong play.

West Coast +40.5 vs Sydney

Whilst I am the first to admit Sydney have been going well lately they do not deserve to start 7 goal favourites against anyone.

West Coast have been quite poor this year but they have been competitive in 3 of their past 4 matches.

Rd 13 vs Melbourne (Home) Won this match
Rd 14 vs Adelaide (Away) Lost by 13
Rd 15 vs Kangaroos (Away) Lost by 44 but played well

I am still trying to confirm the ground conditions at the SCG but this does become an even stronger play if it is wet.
 
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