AFL: Round 17

[nehpets]

Sydney +17.5 @ freo,
sydney don't get blown out often, freo are slightly overated as it is, swans form is fine, very competitive in 15 pt loss @ geelong last week, this match shouldn't be as difficult.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Freo, on their own dung hill, have rolled the Swans the last 2 times by 26 & 27pts. Can't see any good reason why they won't cover the lesser points this time around.

I think there will be easier fish to catch this week, but good luck if you are having a crack at this one Steve.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Hawthorn to sack its coach within the hour....and about time too!!

Unfortunately they are playing my Kangaroos this week.....so the $3 on offer for them is now very tempting given history of teams winning straight up after chopping the main man. The 20+ points on offer must be taken.

Why the hell did they have to pick this week to do it??!!! :cursin:

 

[MrChristo]

All hype PAWA.
Kanga's will SMASH the increasingly woeful Hawks.
1) Winning record of teams who sack a coach is only about 50% in the last 20 years.
2) This move is hardly going to inspire any pride/confidence in the team. I guess you've seen by now Crawford's reaction to the news when he showed up at training Wed. He was furious that the media was told before the players, and said something along the lines of "But I guess that's how the club is going atm".
As I said, hardly inspiring stuff.

Anyway...I have faith in your boys, PAWA! Think 1.40 is an outstanding price for the 'Roos.
Also 1.30 for Geelong is extremely generous!!!

YTD: 38-29 (+16.75)

Also reckon I'll take Port and Melbourne to cover the -37.5, but will wait to se how conditions are on the day.

Originally liked Sydney +17.5 myself, but as PAWA says, they have covered that the last 2 years....Mind you, they are hardly in the same form as previous years. Even last week they had 10 LESS inside 50's than the Crows!!!
BUT, having said that, Sydney are a lot like the Crows, in that if you can keep Hall down then they have trouble scoring.

Good Luck this week gang.

Kangaroos/Geelong/Brisbane/Melbourne/Port @ 2.60 (2 units)

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Schwabby to coach on until seasons end.

Still think that they have a dip this week and push my spasmodic Roos!!

I'll stay away and hope it goes according to ladder positions!

 

[MrChristo]

4 losses in their last 9 games. Melboburne by 18 (good result), Geelong by 10 (good result), Collingwood by 27 (shocker admittedly!), Carlon by 8 (predictable enough).
Hardly spasmotic, PAWA!

Besides...if consistancy is what you're after, look no further than the Hawks! Won 1 of last 15! That's pretty consistant! Lost their last 6 at the MCG by an av. of 53 points (inc. to the Roos by 29 in Rd. 2)..and allowed 100+ in all of those games.
Really, I think you can sleep easy mate!

Adding: Melbourne -37.5

Brown didn't train Wed nite with a 'strained' calf. They could be the first team ever to get less than 20 inside 50's if he doesn't play!! Even if he does I can't see them getting within 10 goals of th Dees. Weather forecast fine. Hard to see anything other than a BIG win for Melbourne.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Second week in a row without any express plays.

Do, however, get five 'Strong Plays' (19 - 11 @63%) in Brisbane, Collingwood, Port, Geelong and Melbourne. Understandable given the many 'one-sided' matches this week.

I like the Saints to cover 3 goals against a very average Essendon (face it bomber!) @ their favourite 'feasting' ground in the Dome on Friday night.

Geelong and Melbourne also look like good covers.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Christo

Are your Bulldogs a chance against a depleted Magpies lineup?

:shrug:

 

[MrChristo]

Have to be a chance, PAWA.
Tarrant, Rocca and Didak kicked 9 of their 15 goals when we played them last time. But, I think we have thrown in the towel for the year, so I'm not really temped by the 2.50.

Neitz to kick more goals than Richo/Kingsley/Tredrea/Fevola @ 3.75

I expect Melbourne will kick a big score in this game. Nietz kicked 9 goals when they met in Rd. 2. Tredrea won't kick more than 4, Fevola will be on the best full back in the league. Richardson won't get enough of the ball and Kingsley won't kick many. Great value, IMO.

Heading off for the w'end for a Christening!! (Well, more for the piss up afterwards ).
Hope the good run continues for us all!

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Where did you get the Neitz wager?

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Geez......Hird and Fletcher confirmed as non starters in tonights clash for the Bombers.

Load up on the Sainters!!!! Over 15.5 gets $1.85!!

 

[beast2]

Year to Date: 34-23 for +7.6 Units

Round 17 Play
St Kilda -19.5 d Essendon

Craig

 

[MrChristo]

Nice hit with the Saints, guys.
Unfortunately one of the down sides to being away is not getting any late team news! :cursin:

PAWA, the Neitz bet is at Centrebet....Exotics....Most goals kicked on SUNDAY ONLY.

I assume it's still there, on stupid old dial-up, so will take me 5 minutes to check!

LOTS of $$ on Kanga's and Dogs today I see, both coming in LOTS!!

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Saints last night was a great hit and never looked in doubt. They just love playing @ the Dome!

A wet day here in Melbourne. Hoping my Roos come to play and keep some multis alive.

Thanx Christo.....found it. Only Treaders can stop us!

 

[UT-Longhorn]

anyone have any thoughts on the Magpies/Bulldogs match?

 

[UT-Longhorn]

Should the lions win quite easy over the crows today?

 

[beast2]

Round 17
Brisbane -45.5 d Adelaide (2 Units)
Brisbane will destroy Adelaide as Adelaide have had the flu and there have been even more changes to an already depleted side.

Craig

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Umm........is there another word that means more than 'destroy'?!!

189 to 48 :scared

I hope your guys still have the bug when my Roos hit town next week Beasty!!

 

[beast2]

Other words for destroy: annihilate, butcher, cream, crush, dismantle, exterminate, kill, maim, multilate, ravage, ruin, shatter, slay, smash, total, trash, wipe out.

All the above can describe what Brisbane did to Adelaide. Seriously, that was an absolute disgrace and I'm not even sure the flu is excuse for that performance. I expected Brisbane to win easily but that just became embarrassing in the second half being outscored 21 goals to 2.

The only saving grace from the wreck is that I collected on my 2 unit bet.

Craig

 

[beast2]

Sunday Plays
Geelong -25.5 d Carlton
Melbourne -37.5 d Richmond

Craig