AFL Round 17

[Cartman88]

Geez hard to believe we are only a few weeks away from finals action - looking at the run home I actually think that there are 7 teams fairly safe to make the Top 8:

West Coast
Adelaide
Geelong
Sydney
Kangaroos
St Kilda
Brisbane

The final spot looks tighter - probably leaning towards Melbourne (even if they can win 1 of their next 4 you would expect them to win in Rd 21 and Rd 22 - and with the percentage advantage this might be enough to sneak in).

As for this weekend I have 4 plays:

Port Adelaide -27.5 vs Richmond (2 units)
West Coast $2.00 vs Sydney
Adelaide $1.95 vs Kangaroos
Melbourne +19.5 vs Fremantle (2 units)

 

[PAWAQATSI]

I agree with the Port play C-man. They have been belting teams at home and Richmond's record over there is shocking.

Think maybe West Coast are due to drop one and Sydney @ home are a likely spoiler. Sydney Under 39.5

A lot of money coming for my Roos versus Adelaide. I think Adelaide in a close one. Under 39.5

I thought Melbourne would stand up last week but they were shite!! They have bigger problems inside and I wouldn't bet them with Bombercoops money!!! :142lmao:

Have you taken some of the Cats for the flag yet?? oke

 

[MrChristo]

Going for a 2 unit multi of St. Kilda/Port/Geelong and Brisbane @ 1.91.

Really can't see too many problems for any of them this week.
Would think that both Brisbane and Port cover their spreads, but I'll play it safe.

Lot of money coming in for the Roos because of some injury news/concerns in SA. Goodwin named but I can't believe that he'll play. Biglands/Bassett/Rutten didn't train on Tuesday (final session today I guess), and apparently Bock is a definate starter, so someone down back might not have come up.
Tough one to call, imo. Would have been all over the Crows a a month ago. Now your boys have to be a good show, PAWA.

My original thought was to take Melbourne +, but they have no backline! I know Freo have only beaten the Dogs and Carlton, but Pavlich and McPharlin should have another HUGE day, esp. with Polak and Bell both being named.
In the last 5 games the Dees have allowed a goal every 3.13 entries into their 50. Second worst, better only than Carlton.
Not sure I can trust either team, but it should be a very high scoring game either way.

Good luck guys.

 

[bombercoops]

Wouldn't bet with my money either ay Paw? Can't blame you mate, I'm struggling to pull the trigger at the moment myself. Going to the bris/dons game cartman?? I'll be there in full force to witness the flogging! Can't wait!

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Going for a 2 unit multi of St. Kilda/Port/Geelong and Brisbane @ 1.91.

Exactly what I was doing Christo. Throwing the Roos and Hawks in another one for abit more value. Multis are the go this week I reckon.

I'm going out to see the Roos on Sunday. Starting to get a little confident on 'em winning to be honest!! Take both Under 39.5 and skim the profit perhaps?? Should be low scoring and close.


***Forgot to mention that there are no eligible system selections for this week!!!*** :mj13:

 

[bombercoops]

Doggies looking good at the half christo. See if they can hang in there down the stretch.
Taking West Coast $1.95 & the dees +18.5

 

[PAWAQATSI]

So how'd ya go last night bomber?? :brows:

Did you need to pull out a paper bag for her head??!! :mj07:


:142lmao: :142smilie



Yeah Christo.......good on your Bulldogs. :cursin:

 

[MrChristo]

haha. Yeah, kinda feel the same way Pawa...well, ok, that's not completely true!
(Although, it did hurt financially )

Ryan Griffen. Get on him now for next years' Brownlow!!!

Good luck tonight guys...although bomber sounds like he doesn't need any!

 

[bombercoops]

LMAO! Didn't need any luck last night and to my surprise, and obviously yours pawa, she turned out to be as nice looking as I was led to believe- which is always a bonus!
As for tonight's game which I just got back from, was surprised to see the dons right in the thick of things at 3/4 time. Just about lost my voice when dyson goaled to give us a 2 point lead. Both teams played ordinary and Brisbane are definitely going to need to pick it up if they are to be a threat to the better teams in the comp. As for the dons, well, we're just focused on the VFL prem. at this stage! He, he! Need something to look forward to right?
Nice win by your dogs today christo. It seems they know what's on the line as far as ladder placement at the conclusion of the season!

 

[MrChristo]

Freo/Melbourne over 204 (2.35)

Both teams backlines are pretty ordinary, especially Melbourne's with Miller and Nicholson still out.
Daniher has said he stuffed up by playing Bruce in a tagging role last week and will free up his play makers.
Feo have kicked 20+ goals in there last 2, and Melbourne's defense is no better. They've allowed 90+ in 7 of the last 9.
Melbourne allowed 100+ in their last 4.
Their first meeting this year was 143-129. 100 each looks pretty likely in this one aswell.

 

[Musca]

Just a question...

Just a question...

I see someone posting Melbourne +19.5 my line is 13.5- Is there that mch line movement-- Is this significant line movement...

Just wondering

 

[MrChristo]

Pretty sure the line has been steadily coming down all week....and there was a fair bit of difference (3-4 points) at different books as well.
As far as I know there's no late injury news.