Afl: Round 18

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

holy shit everyone, welcome back to me...

might as well get back into this sport and clear the rust off. :shrug:

last time i was in here, it was round 9 methinks.

2003 AFL record: 11 - 6 = +3.67 units

got some time tonite....

lemme dig up some stuff so i can figure out what i missed lately.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

recap: scores from week 17

recap: scores from week 17

this is for my benefit:

round 17 scores:

Friday Night, July 25
West Coast 14.14. 98
Hawthorn 5.12. 42

Saturday, July 26
Kangaroos 16. 8. 104
Geelong 12.14. 86

Melbourne 10.11. 71
Essendon 13.10. 88

Saturday Night
Brisbane Lions 15.13. 103
Port Adelaide 15.14. 104

Western Bulldogs 14.11. 95
Richmond 24.11. 155

Sunday, July 27
Sydney 17. 9. 111
Fremantle 14.13. 97

Collingwood 20.15. 135
Carlton 8.14. 62

Adelaide 22.11. 143
St Kilda 13. 8. 86

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

AFL LADDER: after wek 17

total games / wins / losses / ties

Port Adelaide 17 13 4 (seems like a good bet on the ML)
Sydney 17 12 5 0
West Coast 17 11 5 1
Adelaide 17 11 6 0
Collingwood 17 11 6

Brisbane Lions 17 10 6 1
Fremantle 17 10 7 0
Kangaroos 17 9 7 1
Essendon 17 9 8 0
Hawthorn 17 8 9 0
Richmond 17 7 10 0
St Kilda 17 7 10 0

Geelong 17 5 12 0
Melbourne 17 5 12
Carlton 17 4 13 (bet against on ML and parlay)
Western Bulldogs 17 2 14 1 ( same as above...)

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

some interesting stats and predictions from a certain punter site.....picked up from round 17:

1) The Eagles at home have not lost a game this season while Hawthorn are three from ten outside Victoria in the last two seasons - the three wins all at York Park. The Eagles should bounce back after last week?s loss to Port.

that prediction was RIGHT.
make the eagles perfect at home.

2) Dean Laidley will have made certain the side starts better than last week and they have a good record at Manuka Oval with six wins from eight games. The Cats have just one win away from the Victoria in the past two seasons.

kangs win 7 of nine at home

prediction CORRECT

3) The Bombers are still a big chance for the eight and this is the first of four 'winnable' games. They will be too good up forward while David Neitz must be considered a risk pf missing after last weeks heavy knock. The Bombers have won the last six in a row against Melbourne.

make that 7 in a row now.
PREDICTION WAS CORRECT.

4) The Bulldogs have finally got a win and the Tigers are headed for nine losses in a row. Recent matches between then sides have also been split evenly, confidence will play an important part and this appears to be on the Bulldogs side at present.

Selected BULLDOGS by 11
prediction WRONG.

5) The Lions are bleeding and the loss of Leppitsch will be impossible to cover against a side like Port. Injuries have brought the Lions back to the pack and Port will be keen to retain top position for the finals.

prediction CORRECT.

6) Could be a fast, attacking and high scoring game which the Swans should win because of the home ground advantage. The Swans have won 10 of their past 12 games and are in great form and away from Subiaco the Dockers have won just 2 from 11.

make it 11 of 13 games for the swans.
dockers now 2 from 12 away.

prediction CORRECT.

7) These two sides usually provide a great contest but this time the Pies look far too strong for a Carlton side which are playing youth to build for the future.

prediction CORRECT.

8) The Saints caught Adelaide out in the round two clash recording their first win against the Crows in six seasons. Adelaide will return from a loss to Fremantle desperate to regain some form and can do it at St Kilda?s expense.

adelaide destroyed them.

prediction CORRECT.
_____________________________________________

the reason why i posted these is that i wanted another perspective AND some good home / away stats that i have missed this season.

good luck to all of us this round.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

ROUND 18 games:

FRIDAY AUGUST 1 AEST
Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne
Telstra Dome 7:40 PM AEST

SATURDAY AUGUST 2 AEST
Carlton vs Essendon
Melbourne Cricket Ground 2:10 PM AEST

Fremantle vs Richmond
Subiaco 1:40 PM AWST

Geelong vs Collingwood
Telstra Dome 7:10 PM AEST

Brisbane Lions vs Kangaroos
Gabba 7:10 PM AEST

SUNDAY AUGUST 3 ACST
Adelaide vs Sydney
AAMI Stadium 12:40 PM ACST

Hawthorn vs Port Adelaide
Melbourne Cricket Ground 2:10 PM AEST

St Kilda vs West Coast
Telstra Dome 2:10 PM AEST

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

interesting article from the oddsmakers:

ROUND SEVENTEEN WRAP

Bookmakers have been on the end of another beating this weekend after all eight "money" favourites won. And depending on where you shopped, all seven or eight starting favourites came out on top.

"It was very nasty - every multiple punter gutted us," said Phil Hannah from Sportingbet Australia. "Very tough" was the line from TAB Sportsbet, Global's Gary Walsh lost on every game, making it their fourth consecutive losing week, while Norm Short said "it would have been an absolute disaster had it not been for the rugby - we hardly had a losing punter on our books". Both Short and Walsh both made the point that they can hardly remember a year with so many favourites winning - despite the apparent even nature of the competition.

Notes. Sportingbet Australia were smarting after putting Brisbane out at a best-priced 2.00 versus Port - they attracted a bet of $20,000 at this price... The same shop also laid wagers of $30,000 at 3.50 Fremantle, $100,000 at 1.25 the Collingwood/Adelaide double and $28,000 at 2.01 on Collingwood/Adelaide/West Coast/Sydney... TAB Sportsbet were keen to lay Melbourne - they accepted $15,000 at 3.60 and also $15,000 at 3.20 Geelong... Norm Short was forced to pay out on a mutli of $2,000 at 8.39 of Collingwood and Adelaide 40+ into Sydney/West Coast/Essendon... Global Sportsbet meanwhile, paid out on the popular Saturday afternoon Essendon/Kangaroos double for $20,000 at 1.88 - despite both outsiders holding the lead a one stage.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

anybody have the home / away records for this league?

 

[bombercoops]

Good to have you back TV. Where have you been mate?:shrug: We've been travelling along just nicely down here in recent times mate so jump aboard for the rest of the journey.

 

[bombercoops]

Just read the pawamech post TV and can fully understand your duties at home mate!

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

Good to have you back TV. Where have you been mate?:shrug: We've been travelling along just nicely down here in recent times mate so jump aboard for the rest of the journey.

thanks for the well wishes...!!:toast:

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Welcome back TV
How goes the pooey nappies?!

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

Welcome back TV
How goes the pooey nappies?!

all a part of being a new parent.

 

[MrChristo]

Is this an AFL thread you guys, or a mothers meeting

Only one game I like this week.....WAY too many variables in some one sided games, and also some very tight lines IMO.

Really like the Tiges getting 30ish tho. (Admittedly v. the Dogs) but they showed a bit last week. MUCH better forward line structure, and with Richo running around the middle look a totally different side.
Freo only won 3 games by more than 31 all year.
Richmond shocking record interstate, but only lost by 28 in Adelaide.
Can't see Richmond winning, but too many points on offer for me.

Good luck guys.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

I don't know if one 'breakout' game by the Tigers in 8 weeks is worth jumping on their wagon MrC. Granted its alot of points start but I think it will be to close to the margin to lay down the cash. IMO

 

[bombercoops]

Not many appealing games this week are there. Agree with pawa on the freo/tiges game but good luck if you decide to play it Mr C.
Actually think that Carlton are a good play against the dons because they ALWAYS seem to play a close game regardless of where they are on the ladder. Think the dons get up but the blues are due for a more reasonable performance and I think it will come this week. Sydney getting a stack of points in Adelaide looks OK and think the coasters can cover against the sainters on sunday arvo IMO. No standout games though this week are there.

 

[MrChristo]

Game by game?

Game by game?

Dogs v. Melbourne. Dogs have to be a sneaky chance at some big odds (2.70ish). Dees have as many height probs as we do and Darcy signing should be big boost for the Dogs.
Problem being the venue. Dogs lost last 9 at the phone dome...Melbourne won 11 of 14.
They have only beaten Carlton and St. Kilda in the past 10 weeks tho!!....Impossible to bet either way.

Richmond...will play at +34.5. Too many points.

Carlton v. Ess. Realistically Bombers should win by 150. Sunny day, MCG where 5 of last 6 Ess. wins have been by 37 or more (4 by 50+).....Bombers win but margin too tough to call. No value in 1.10 either.

(Other game I have my eye on!)..Geelong +30.5 v. Collingwood. Cats will be best defence Pies have faced for a long time. Also Rd. 3 was the first time Collingwood had beaten Geelong by more than 21 points since 1988!! (20 games!!) (And as I recall Cats were infront at 3/4 time??). Presti, Clement and Cloke out hurt Coll backline significantly.
Just on Rd. 3 also...Tarrant took the game apart in the last 1/4, but Harley missed that game

Bris v. Kangas. With Kangas defense as it is, Bris could kick 200...but not firing all that well at present so no bet.

Crows v. Sydney. Looks the closest spread of all! No Ball will hurt Swans alot. Crows by about 5 goals in right. (hardly 1.20 shots v. the 2nd top side tho!)

Hawthorn v. Port. Port flying, but have only won 3 of 14 at MCG. Too scary for me...esp. after their horrible display v. Melbourne earlier this year. Tough to take Hawks tho with no Holland, Barker, Dixon and maybe Crawford.

St. Kilda v. West Coast. Who ever wins, covers! Simple. When St. Kilda lose they get flogged! Lowest loss this season has been 26 points However they have beaten the Kangas and Brisbane at the Dome this year...And more importantly, the Eagles last season at a similar price. No Gardiner, Fletcher or Embly REALLY hurt the Eagles.
Realistically value is with the Saints at 3.20ish...But West Coast with too much to lose.

How's all that grab ya

 

[bombercoops]

Nice rundown Mr C. Think you pretty much covered it all mate. Like the stat on the cats and was actually thinking about that today as I remember we were all over them early in the year. Hard to put money on though with the pies flying at the moment. Not much to get excited about this weekend. Pawa, any system specialties mate? Think parlaying some favs might be the go for the week.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

The faves do look all the rage this week guys. Multi heaven again I suspect. Melbourne are tempting giving just 13 pts and I think Collingwood will rip into Geelong. My Kangaroos came very close to being a system selection so will be having a few on them with the points. Adelaide looks to be the stand out of the round giving 4 goals to Sydney. The two South Australian sides have equal best spread records for this season, winning 12 of 17 @ 71% success rate. Interesting to note that Brisbane has the worst, covering just 4 of the 17 @ a pathetic 24%. Port had me tempted but 2 weeks on the road and a shocking MCG record scares me. West Coast should cover against the Saints.

Good luck everyone with whatever you take.

 

[bombercoops]

Can hear em' going wild in Footscray at the moment! The dees have all but fallen asleep Pulling for you Mr C!

 

[MrChristo]

:drinky:

Ooooohhhhh yeeeahhhhhh!

Lovin' this.

Girlfriend gone to sister's for the night....sit here and get raucously drunk by myself watching the second half on TV. (And then probably the replay on Fox!)

WWWWWOOOOOOOOOOOOFFFFFFF :Yep:


btw....Cloke out for Pies, and Burns left training early! But no indication of why?? Holland left early also.

Malthouse: The coach said it would be inevitable that his team could not sustain its impressive recent form until the end of the season....

Cats still +30.5.

Going with it, and also a smallish dabble on the Saints @ 3.20