AFL Round 18

[Cartman88]

Two plays for me at the moment:

Collingwood +15.5 vs Richmond
Kangaroos +8.5 vs Sydney

I will have a further look at the Sat/Sun games and might post some more plays on the weekend.

 

[Anders]

Concurring totally with my brother Eric on the above

PLAY COLLINGWOOD +15.5
PLAY KANGAROOS +9.5

Also leaning at this stage to Geelong -16.5, Pt Adelaide -14.5, Brisbane -28.5 and West Coast -8.5 - looking deeper though...

Believe it's that time of the season when desperation and playoff aspirations start to play a much bigger factor than some other capping aspects - hence the initial plays on the two dogs desperate to make the eight.

GLTA

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

record: 20-5 ( 80 %)

yes, totally agree with playoff aspirations and whatnot...

as usual : moneylines for this weekend.

hawthorne
port adelaide
lions
Essendon (hope they get back on track.

good luck to all.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

and one more..this one made me sick:

taking:

St.Kilda

BARF.

 

[Cartman88]

Friday night result:

Richmond 71 Collingwood 51

Felt fairly unlucky to lose this one. In a low scoring match Collingwood lead by 14 points in the 3rd quarter (up by 29 points factoring in the spread). Everything was looking sweet but then Richmond kicked the next 5 goals and end up winning by 20 points.

I am starting to get very frustrated with Richmond who seem to screw me every week !!!!

 

[Cartman88]

Adding 2 more plays for this weekend:

Melbourne +16.5 vs Geelong

This game is being played at the MCG and based on past performances this certainly favours Melbourne. I feel that Geelong have "over achieved" in recent weeks and when I look at their side I still struggle to see how they won 4 from their past 5 matches (mainly against weaker sides). I can Melbourne upsetting them here so the +16.5 spread looks a good bet.

Port Adelaide -14.5 vs Adelaide

In the local SA derby I think Port Adelaide are a better and faster side than Adelaide. If they play their best footy they could win this by a decent margin. The only danger is a possibly let-down following their victory over Essendon but I am not overly concerned about this. They are a confident team at present and I have heard they trained very well this week.

 

[gloveski]

season to date 28-23

Brisbane -27.5
Brisbane have been awesome at home this year and the doggies traditionally struggle at the gabba.

Essendon -28.5

Sheedy has stated all week that he want's revenge for the defeat earlier in the year.Carlton going in with alot of players underdone.Essendon also on the rebound could get nasty.

West coast -8.5
This could be one of the worst games of the year cousin's holds the key and the saints without big bad barry hall may struggle to kick a winning score

good luck to all

 

[nomad]

Anyone interested in Total Points markets might like to look at the line in the Sydney v Kangaroos game tonight.

The NSW Tab have it at 189.5 and I'm surprised at how low they have it pegged. These are two sides who know this ground very well and also how to get points on the board.

The weather looks like providing very favourable conditions and for any of you who like a second opinion then you can take a look at www.cityindex.com.au quote for the game. They currently have it at around the 208 mark.

 

[Anders]

Cheers Nomad

Adding:

Pt Adelaide -14.5
Roos/Swans o189.5

Eric - "fairly unlucky"

We wuz robbed mate

 

[Anders]

Kerist, what a disastrous weekend

May pay to fade this last one

West Coast Eagles -8.5

GLTA

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Kangaroos didn't have any hop, eh?

Get em next time, Anders. GL, man.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

can someone tell me how Hawthorne (named after Nigel...) blows a 40 point lead on home turf to the hapless fremantle team...???

"Hawthorn were without any fit players on the bench in the second half - captain Shane Crawford had a corked thigh, Daniel Chick a hamstring strain, Jade Rawlings an ankle problem and Tim Clarke a suspected broken collarbone."

so should we bet a few more against hawthorne this season...?

 

[Cartman88]

Originally posted by TORONTO-VIGILANTE:
so should we bet a few more against hawthorne this season...?

Quite possibly.

Hawthorn showed they are very vulnerable when affected by injuries. Mid season (Round 9/10/11) they had 3 or 4 of their better players out and lost 3 matches in a row.

I think when you blow a 40 point lead against a Fremantle side who are 0-17 for the year you can't blame it just on injuries. The players on the field thought they had the game won and relaxed.

You must give some credit to Fremantle. They have been far more competitive than their record suggests and they did deserve this win.

 

[Cartman88]

Saturday Results:

Melbourne 103 Geelong 100

Fremantle 106 Hawthorn 90
Sydney 143 Kangaroos 36

Mixed bag for me yesterday. Melbourne came from behind and then hung on to score a nice upset win. Kangaroos were weak and can't offer an excuses when you get beaten by over 100 points !!!!

 

[Cartman88]

Adding one more play today:

Parlay
Port Adelaide & Essendon paying $1.90

The more I look at Port Adelaide the more I like them today. I also expect Essendon to bounce back as they always do when everyone starts doubting them. I don't usually like parlays but this one looks solid to me.

 

[AussieVamp2]

let down situation for hawks in hindsight

not that I would have expected a loss

but with no chick/crawford= no defense in midfield - cf Essendon slaughter as Cartman suggested

 

[Cartman88]

Sunday Results to date:

Port Adelaide 107 Adelaide 99
Carlton 102 Essendon 95
Brisbane 136 Wstn Bulldogs 103

Couldn't have worked out much worse today really.

My first bet Port Adelaide -14.5 looked like an easy winner until Adelaide came back with a few late goals to sneak within the spread.

My other bet was the parlay on Port Adelaide and Essendon. This also looked very solid in the 4th quarter with Port Adelaide easily in front and Essendon getting 2 goals ahead at one stage. The only thing that could beat me was a late Carlton come back and sure enough they dominated the last 10 mins of the game to secure the win.

This weekend ended up 1-4 on the AFL. It is even more disappointing when if things had worked out just slightly different it could have been 4-1.

[This message has been edited by Cartman88 (edited 08-05-2001).]

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

this week: 2-3

overall record: 22-8

well, what can i say, I'm glad i started lowering my bets last week after the fiasco with essendon...

and it's funny how essendon lost again this week and fremantle won...and West coast....makes me sick..i knew i should have laid off the ST.Kilda pick...
oh well, it's forgotten and we move on to next week.

 

[gloveski]

2-1 for the weekend
season to date 30-24

 

[gloveski]

2-1 for the weekend
season to date 30-24