AFL Round 19.....

[PAWAQATSI]

Late start to this round of footy action.

3 'Express' System plays for this week.

First up is my embarrassing Kangaroos team who travel to Sydney and get about 22.5 pts start. Now Archer plays his 250th game and you'd think that if ever his team mates owed him a good hard game, this would be it. Me....I just don't see it coming! We've got within 47 points once in our last five attempts playing up at the SCG. Sydney are playing for a spot in the finals....while we flushed ours down the 'gurgler' last week :flush:

Second eligible play is West Coast getting around 39 pts start against the Brisbane Lions. You can get $2 Brisbane 1-40 so perhaps that is the go as they should bounce back after last weeks upset loss to Sydney.

The last selection is the one I really like.....
Melbourne getting +8.5 pts versus Port Adelaide.
Now these games usually go with the home side but Melbourne have always pushed Port all the way, going down by 17,20,4 and 14...along with a couple of 20 odd pt victories against the 'home' trend. Now Melbourne sit on top of the ladder and are in their best shape to cause the 'away' upset for many years.

I'll post some 'strong plays' plays later.

 

[kickserv]

Pawa.........


I have yet to place a bet on AFL...think time is now......so I'd assume this is a good play???

Sydney Swans -21.5 $1.87 ???


should I play it?? might throw it in on a parlay...let me know....thanks

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Hey Kyle......How goes it mate?

I would stay clear of Sydney giving the points as my system actually goes against them and it is currently on a pretty good winning streak as of late (making up for its dismal start to the season!).
I personally think Sydney cover it....but then again my heart is too close to this game due to my team playing and the fact that I lose confidence in them very quickly! :lol:
Wait and see what the other guys (with an open mind) think.


If you really want to have a punt on a game......take Melbourne with the points against Port. An outright win is on the cards according to my 'key indicators'. :brows:

 

[MrChristo]

Agree, PAWA, that Melbourne are a big chance to win SU....only thing that concerns me is the threat of rain on the day, which I would think would advantage Port quite a bit.

Port's game has been poor in the last couple of weeks.
Way too many handballs, and over-possessing quite a lot.

Looking at the stats they were EXTREMELY fortunate to beat West Coast at home 2 weeks ago.

29 less kicks.
9 less scoring shots.
10 less inside 50's!!!

In fact Port's home record is deceptive:
Horribly under-manned Ess by 96
16th Hawthorn by 81
14th Bulldogs by 55
11th Collingwood (who were 15th at the time) by 17
LOST to 13th Adelaide (14th at the time) by 32!
15th Richmond by 78
5th Geelong by 4!
7th Sydney by 72 (A good win, it must be said)
12th Carlton by 83
10th Eagles by 26

Port down to one ruckman with Brogan out, Pickett and Carr out hurts their already depleted midfield.
They do get Wilson, Wanganeen and Hardik back tho.
Still, Melbourne are flying...but I'll be waiting for game time to see how the weather is looking on the day.

Other games I will be playing are:
Geelong -33.5

A lot of people sem to talking up a Geelong let-down here. Don't understand. It is there first game at the MCG for the year, but still no concern. Richmond are terrible. If they couldn't beat half a Coll side last week they won't get within 10 goals aof a full strength Geelong.
Now Ottens out and Pettifer too. Against the Geelong defense, I'll be surprised if Richmond manage 6 goals....Seriously.

Essendon -30.5

Not much to say in this game really....except the play is again weather dependent. (No play if it's wet).

Adelaide +29.5

Was expecting to get +15 ish!!! As we've seen all year, the Adel midfield is as good as any going around...They simply can't kick goals. But they will have enough of the ball in this game to at least keep it close.
Outside the dome St. K. av. 47 inside 50's a game...allow 49.
Away from home, Crows av. 48 inside 50's...allow 50.

Crows can't kick goals, but St. K. only av. 87 points away from home.
And, I'm expecting some Law of Averages somewhere to start to balance things out here too.....Crows 5.19 last week..Saints 15.4.

Honestly thing the Crows are a decent shout to pinch this game...Hard to see them going down by more than 5 goals.


Sydney/Kanga's?? Hard to go against Sydney...Kanga's haven't beaten them in Sydney since 2000....But equally as hard to take them - the points. Sydney have won 5 games this year by less than 21 points and Kanga's have lost 5 by less than 21 also.
Every chance it's a tight, low scoring game.
Anyway...much better games to be on, that's for sure.

 

[UT-Longhorn]

What do you guys think of Freemantle vs Collingwood? Is Freemantle at home? Should they atleast win rather easily?(not looking at the pointspread, just ML)

Also, what about Brisbane to win over West Coast Eagles? Are they at home?

Looking for two teams to take on the Moneyline just to win outirght for a 4 team parlay........thanks for any suggestions :clap:

 

[MrChristo]

The 2 best (safest) ML's are Fremantle and Geelong.

Brisbane no value at all, as the West Coast I think are a ligit chance to win the game.

Adelaide a chance. (as above)
Essendon far superior team, but CRAP in the wet. (showers farecast)
Kangaroos a chance.
Dogs/Hawthorn?? Throw a $50 in the air and pick a side.
Melbourne should win. (as above)

 

[UT-Longhorn]

Whoa, wasnt expecting FREEMANTLE to play this poorly, any idea if they will turn it around?

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Freo are being totally outplayed by a more committed Collingwood outfit. Outcoached as well. A big letdown after last weeks big win.

This game is over halfway through the 3rd quarter.

Sorry UT......but they aint comin' back from here.

 

[MrChristo]

Don't you believe it guys....

Collingwood have been POOR in last 1/4's all year....even last Richmond outscored them by 4 goals.

Think Freo are still a reasonable chance here.

 

[MrChristo]

er...yeah, well, guess not!

Freo got absolutely smashed in the middle. Can't see them winning another game for the year....Hoping to get the Eagles at a decent price for the derby, 'cause I reckon they'll pump the Dockers this time around....but anyway.........

50-32 (+18.63)

Confirmed plays:
Adelaide +28.5

Will give you guys a weather update in the morning, but at this stage I reckon it will be a reasonably fine (but cold!) day.

Sorry about the Dockers, UT, hopethings pick up for the rest of the w'end.

 

[kickserv]

ok guys thanks for the input.....I passed on AFL action...but don't worry the Canadian will get one bet in on AFL......and when he does...look out!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[nehpets]

WEST COAST +38.5, and @ 5.50 or so SU ...
thought this would be somewhere around 25! bris lost last week and wce won well ...
wce showing some form

 

[nehpets]

and wce hammered brissy at the gabba, last year I think it was

 

[PAWAQATSI]

3 'strong plays' (25-15 ATS @62.5%) qualify for this round.

Essendon over Carlton today @ the MCG though it is very wet here in Melbourne this morning and the 30 points start becomes more like 40ish in reality! More tempted by Carlton getting 'em knowing how poor the Bombers are in the rain.

Geelong over the hapless Tigers. Similar number to cover at the same ground tomorrow. Big difference between these teams. One is heading to the finals and the other is going nowhere! Geelong should cover it but will wait to see what the weather is like in the morning.

Last one is Melbourne over Port getting points. Two systems pointing to this one.

 

[MrChristo]

Thanks for the weather PAWA.
Def no play on Ess if it's that wet...Reckon I'll still be on Geelong tho.
Beautiful, sunny day down here in tropical Launceston. Weather definately not an issue in this game.

 

[UT-Longhorn]

guys, do you feel GEELONG is alot better chance to win outright versus FREEMANTLE or could GEELONG pull a FREEMANTLE?

 

[MrChristo]

Adealide sneak home, but that's al they have to do

Played: Melobourne +10.5

Think they probably win SU, but lost by 4 in 2002, so I'll go with the safety.
Weather looks fine in Adelaide.

What's it like in Melbourne PAWA? (Or anyone else)

Geelong down to -31.5...Reckon I'll play them in anything other than a snow storm!

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Overcast but not wet Christo here in Melb. There are some dark clouds looming though. My feeling is for intermittent showers today.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Unbelievable night last night as my Roos stage the 5th biggest 3/4 time comeback against Sydney. Down and out by 40 points we kick 9.2 to 2.0 and steal it with 30 seconds left on the clock. UN-FREAKIN-BELIEVABLE!!! :scared Great to see everyone run to Archer when the siren went. A BIG win. This puts us back into the hunt for the finals, especially with Essendon laying down to Carlton yesterday. They can break your heart (see last weeks loss!) one week and then make ya go nuts the next, my Roos.
I'm spewing that I only played this system pick for 5%!!
An unfortunate side-note of this game was the death on the sidelines of Sydney's Head Trainer of a heart attack during the tense final quarter.

I'm on Brisbane 1-39 and hope the Coasters can keep it close along with a combo of Melb +points / 1-39

 

[MrChristo]

Played: Geelong -32.5

Just can't see the Tiges scoring.

Yep. great win by the Roos last nite PAWA. Didn't see it (was watching the Doggies game...which was a surprisingly good game to watch)..but seen the last few goals on replays.

Eagles off to a great start...ame should nearly be over if not for their bad kicking. have to think +35.5 is pretty safe.
(Also anyone watching noticing the HOT goal umpire chick?) :hitit: