AFL Round 19

[Cartman88]

Hi Guys,

Have a few other commitments for the rest of the week - mainly involving :mj06: so will get my plays in early ....

St Kilda -30.5 vs Geelong
Essendon +8.5 vs Sydney (2 units)
Port Adelaide -10.5 vs Carlton
Collingwood +22.5 vs Kangaroos

Good luck to all.

 

[bombercoops]

Showing faith in the red and black cartman. I like it! Will be trying to pull that one thru with you the whole way. Good luck with the drinking!

 

[MrChristo]

I'm busy today aswell, will chuck some reasons here a bit lately on...

2 x Kangaroos ML (1.41)
Adelaide -35.5

Seriously thinking about Sydney ML. The Bombers had 20 less inside 50's and 2 less shots last week. Sydney's forward line is much more potent than Geelong's...not to mention the rest of their team!

 

[MrChristo]

Adelaide -35.5

Will Melbourne be able to field a side this week?? Massive injury woes and things keep getting worse.
The last 5 games Melbourne have allowed 11.4 more inside 50's per game than their opp, and now face the Crows who av. 13.1 more per game at home. Nasty.
When Adelaide have scored 100+ this season they have won 7 of 8 games (loss away v. Bulldogs) and 6 of those wins have been by 40 points or more.
Melbourne have allowed 105, 166, 137, 104, 101, 176 in their last 6, allowing a goal every 2.73 inside 50's which is the worst in the league.
They've also allowed 116, 138, 112, 145, 125 & 137 in their last 6 at AAMI.
They've lost their last 7 games in Adelaide by an av. of 45.4 points and the last 2 v. the Crows by 73 and 72 points.
The Crows are allowing just 61 ppg at home this season, so some simple maths (my favourite!) would suggest that this one gets very ugly indeed.
Oh, and the Crows will be after revenge for Melbourne beating them earlier in the season. They said the same thing when playing a depleted Bulldog team 3 weeks ago and won by 74.
Like this one a lot.

Kangaroos ML

The 'Roos just keep being under-rated! A legitimate finals team playing a bottom 3 team (2nd lowest %) and paying 1.40? Doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
Knew I should have taken them on the ML last week :cursin: ...they may or may not cover the spread this week, but I can't see them dropping this one.


Really think Sydney are good value @ 1.75.
Essendon have only had 2 very lucky wins in the last5 games. They still have allowed -7.8 difference inside 50's in their last 5 games and relied on their backline (well, just Fletcher really!).
The Bombers have no-one to go with Jolly/Ball and esp. Goodes in the ruck. Their forward line is functioning weel with Hall, O'Keefe, O'Loughlan, Davis and one of the big guys, and they haven't allowed over 91 in 8 weeks.
Sydney only beat the Bombers by 6 points last meeting in Sydney, but had 11 more inside 50's and 11 more shots!
The dome could be Essendon's saviour, but Sydney have won their last 2 there, and with so much more to play for I think they would be expecting to win this one.
Will wait to see what the line does. If the Swans drift out to 1.80 I'll be on for sure.

The Doggies have to be a decent shot @ +15 or so. West Coast's form at the MCG has been ordinary at best....

 

[bombercoops]

Sydney may be the play on saturday night christo but as far as saying that Essendon's last 2 wins have been "lucky" is a bit strong. We had the pies covered by nearly 10 goals at one point in the third quarter and ran out comfortable winners and actually played 4 solid quarters against the cats last week- regardless of how ordinary they may have been.
Melbourne look shot at this stage of the season after their dismal form of late but Adelaide's struggle to run out games when they're well in front might be a factor.
Like Port to make a late surge towards the finals and cover the number against the blues.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Careful Christo.....I think you may have hit a nerve!!

No system plays for a third straight week!! :wtf:

I'll take the Saints ov15.5, both Bulldogs and Eagles Under 39.5 (Doggies may actually scrape in with or without the start), Essendon and Sydney Under 39.5 & my Kangas ov15.5

Have you guys seen the international teams that are in Melbourne to play off for the Australian Football International Cup 2005?? Couldn't tell on the news whether they are here for a piss-up or if they are serious!!

Results ? Round 1:

Japan 13.10.88 def Spain 2.5.17

Ireland 4.7.31 def Canada 3.5.23

USA 9.8.62 def South Africa 4.10.34

New Zealand 8.8.56 def Great Britain 3.4.22

Papua New Guinea 8.11.59 def Samoa 6.6.42

Looks like the Japs are the team to watch!!

 

[MrChristo]

Sydney may be the play on saturday night christo but as far as saying that Essendon's last 2 wins have been "lucky" is a bit strong. We had the pies covered by nearly 10 goals at one point in the third quarter and ran out comfortable winners and actually played 4 solid quarters against the cats last week- regardless of how ordinary they may have been.
Melbourne look shot at this stage of the season after their dismal form of late but Adelaide's struggle to run out games when they're well in front might be a factor.
Like Port to make a late surge towards the finals and cover the number against the blues.

bomber......bomber!...Collingwood had 4 more inside 50's and 4 more shots.....Geelong had 22 more inside 50's and 2 more shots?????
Not lucky wins??? Sorry dude, but my definition of "lucky win" just took a funny turn!

Go the American's! Did anyone see the "hit" by the U&S dude on that poor little South African? Ha! ....I mean Ouch!!

 

[bombercoops]

Christo, the number of times a team goes inside 50 in a game is a clearly a positive factor as to how well they are going forward, however, if a team cannot put points on the board after going inside 50 on a more frequent basis, as was the case with the cats/dons game last week, then how relevent is the stat?? Do you think the cats would rather take 4 points away from that game or the fact that they had more scoring shots and inside 50's than the dons?? I agree with you that the number of inside 50's is a pivotal sign as to how well a team is going forward, but if they cannot take advantage of it due to a poor forward line (whether it be on the day or on a week to week basis) and fail to win the game, then how important is it? I know you use your stats heavily in making decisions as to who to bet on in a given week but I think the inside 50 stat can at times be misleading from a betting standpoint. JMO mate.

 

[MrChristo]

Yeah, obviously Geelong would have rather won the game, bomber, but the inside 50 stat is relates to how well you are travelling, imo.

Ok, maybe they weren't lucky wins....But like I said, they are then effectively relying on Fletcher on shutting down the key opposition forward.
Sydney have much more scoring options/potential than either Collingwood or Geelong, and if the ball goes into their forwad line as many times as Essendon have allowed recently then they will kick a winning score.

Hey, and besides the inside 50 stats, like I also said, both Collingwood and Geelong had more scoring shots!!...I take that last paragraph back....they were both lucky wins!!

(Sorry if that last post came across as a bit gruff mate, I didn't mean it to.)

 

[bombercoops]

No worries mate! Had a kunt of a day at work and read it when I got home. I know you were just trying to make a point and I agree that if Sydney get the ball to their forwards enough in that game, regardless of how well Fletcher plays on Hall, we're going to be in some trouble. Hoping for another competitive effort though so that I don't walk out at half time as I have during a couple of games earlier in the season.
Another cats struggle tonight leaves them looking a very ordinary outfit as they head into the finals. Paw, I know you have a couple of games 'inside 39' this week and you'd want to be glad one of those wasn't tonight with Milne kicking the margin out to 41 after the final siren. I'm sure there were a few blokes who did though. Ouch!

 

[MrChristo]

Hoping for another competitive effort though so that I don't walk out at half time as I have during a couple of games earlier in the season.

Haha. I don't reckon it will be that bad, bomber! ...but Geelong might have shown us last night that last week's win wasn't all that good. 1.82 @ Betfair is a pretty nice price, imo.
Have a good time there tonight tho mate.

Hey PAWA...This bet of ours. Is it for the end of Rd. 22 or the end of the finals? We're a HUGE chance now to sneak into 8th spot. Wouldn't want to see you getting too nervous about finishing 5th and getting barrelled out in the first round!
This is one of the best performances I've ever seen from my Dogs. Getting a bit misty eyed! ...Definately getting thirsty!!!

Good luck with the rest of the weekend guys. :thumb:

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Hey PAWA...This bet of ours. Is it for the end of Rd. 22 or the end of the finals?

I think if you look back it was 'home and away' season. Your bastard dogs could have backed off in the last quarter couldn't they.....dammit!!


Showed once again that this Premiership favourite Eagles team can not win the flag this year. I made this call weeks ago when they snuck in against the Roos. This team simply can't win with any conviction in Melbourne. Any decent team will beat them here come Grand Final day.

Looks like the Saints at this point. Ask yourself who you'd rather have your money on?


Expecting a close one tonight with your mob bomber. I hope they get up so Sydney slide back down into the pack!!

 

[bombercoops]

Hoping they get up aswell paw! 10 mins until showtime and can't wait. The dogs are definitely barking with an impressive display today against the flag fav's. I'm sure that warrants more than just a few quiet one's tonight 'C'. Also, our little comp christo which your have rightfully narrowed to a comp between yourself and pawa, was for the end of the home and away season, with percentage used as a tie-breaker. Might just be a chance yet mate with the dogs to play Richmond, Melbourne, and the pies and the Roos to run into the Saints and Sydney at the SCG. Might have to put the needle and thread down for a couple of weeks and buy some red thread to add to the already half-knitten scalf!

 

[MrChristo]

So many conflicting emotions!!!

Great win that, PAWA. 4 goals in the last 3.22 to get up. Saved my bacon!
Not sure if it's all that impressive form tho, coming into the finals.

The way I figure, the Dogs now are near certainties to fill 8th spot.

Freo play West Coast, St. Kilda and @ Port...unlikely to win 2 of those. (2 at very best)

Port play Adelaide, @ Brisbane and Freo. 1 win, maybe 2, but not 3. OUT.

Geelong: Melbourne, West Coast (home), Richmond. At least 2 wins, maybe 3. Safe.

Brisbane: @ Sydney, Port (home) @ St. Kilda. Will struggle to win 2. (doubt it)

Dogs: Richmond, Melbourne, Collingwood. You would have to think that we wil win at least 2 of those.

If we win all 3 I think we're definates, but 2 wins might just be enough to catch Freo on %.

...which, in turn, makes the Kangaroos @ Sydney game massively important!

I can see it coming PAWA.....

I still really like the Crows for the big one. 2 home finals, and can win in Victoria.

Anyway, finally a decent week on the betting front. 3/3...still slightly down for the year tho (-0.59)

Nice work getting that early line on Port, Cartman. Bit unlucky** not to go 4/4.

** I've been expecting a barage from bomber about luck after Fletcher going off late in the 3rd!

 

[Cartman88]

Nice weekend Christo.

I agree with almost everything you said above - although I think the key to the Wstn Bulldogs making the Top 8 will be whether Sydney beats Brisbane next week - Sydney should start favs but I think Brisbane might go very close at Telstra Stadium - particularly if Brown is back.

I still think West Coast will make the Grand Final and can't see them paying over $3.00 on the day - it could be argued they are still fair value but can't back them as my heart says they will fall short.

St Kilda and Adelaide look the obvious threats - may well come down to who has the best run with injuries over the coming weeks.

 

[bombercoops]

Yep, bit 'unlucky' that Fletch was injured and freed up Hall in that last term Christo! Good effort by the boys but they did look pretty ordinary in the second half of that game. I'm sure the inside 50's tell the story C! lol! Nice finish to the game by the roos paw. I'm surprised you haven't been on here tonight ranting about how good it was! You're probably legless in celebration which is understandable. Finals race tightening up and agree with you guys that it looks like three teams (saints, crows, and coasters) as to who will get ot done this year.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Yes Bomber....still recovering from this arvo's game!! We were out played for 70 minutes by a half strength Magpies outfit and were 'gone' going into time-on in the last. My Collingwood brother in -law bagged the North supporters that were leaving the stadium when we were 22 points down and I said "yeah..what a disgrace", while secretly wishing I could leave with them!! I waved goodbye to my 6-team multi as the Roos and Port were the final legs....Then...."it" just happened again....goal after glorious goal until we hit the lead with just seconds left. I went absolutely ape-shit and the Collingwood scum slumped in their seats in dis-belief!! :mj07: Amazing stuff!!

We didn't deserve it but sometimes you don't deserve to lose either and this makes up for the Eagles "rip-off" a few weeks ago.

Next week the Saints will tear us a new one by 10 goals so take whatever Saints line that is offered!!

They are probably the only team that can go over and beat the Crows at home in a final and they will be too potent up forward for both the Crows and Eagles at the MCG in September. Defensively they are as good as both when playing in Victoria. I think they are the ones to beat folks...providing no more injuries.


Another freaky weekend.....you'd think I'd be used to it!!

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Thompson's pose after kicking the winning goal
What a 'pisser' :mj07:

 

[PAWAQATSI]

:mj07:

 

[MrChristo]

Top 8 will be whether Sydney beats Brisbane next week - Sydney should start favs but I think Brisbane might go very close at Telstra Stadium - particularly if Brown is back.

Not sure about that, Cartman. I reckon Brisbane will sneak in either way because of their %.

Like I said, if we win all 3, then there shouldn't be a problem...otherwise the Port/Freo game in Rd. 22 will be the game.

Hudgton out remember Pawa....Penny not very good. Sav and The Hulk should be able to do some damage.