Oh man!...You've beaten me by abut 5 minutes by the look Coops! :142smilie
Kangaroos SU (2.50)
Perfectly contrasting games last week...Kangas travel very poorly, and gave no real indication of form, despite pulling out a tough, unlikely win.
Dogs came up against a 1/2 strength (1/4?!) Swans, and only had 1 more shot and 3 less I50's.
I still think the Kangaroos are the 2nd or 3rd best team in the comp, but too many away games mask the true results.
Add to all of this the motivation. Kangas still in a dog fight for spots 4-8, while the Dogs have sewn up a top 3 spot, are reportedly overloading training and have announced this week they will be "resting" players.
AND...the Kangas beat them last meeting...3 more shots, 5 more I50's, back when the Dogs were just about at their peak.
Not sure there's too much 2.50 left, but 2.40 is still a crazy price...
...really should be 1.90 each, at best! :shrug:
(Pawa... :0corn )
Sydney -13.5.
Yeah, well, a 1/2 strength Swans team is still good enough to get over Freo at home by a couple of goals.
Not a terrible performance last week, 2 away games, and 2 absolute bogey sides (Coll and Crows) adds up to just 1 win in their last 5.
But, in contrast, they own Freo, winning the last 8 meetings at home, none by less than 14.
Freo's form looks ok on the surface (hence the low spread, imo), but wins against the 2 bottom teams and Port who gave up the previous week.
The Dockers have personel issues of their own anyway...Murphy and Tarrant gone for surgery this week, Hayden still out, Pavlich reportedly needed injections to get up last week.
Despite losing the last 2, Swans have had 23 and 27 shots and were +5 and +3 I50's.
Pretty sure they can beat the Dockers again here.
fwiw mate, I looked and looked at Port too...Showed last week they weren't just going to fade away...
...but -16 I50's!...and 8 less shots, I guess it could have been a lot nastier. (Although, watching, it felt close all game.)
And...(pre-emptive :scared )...I kinda like Melbourne +59.5!
Geelong kicked the last 3 goals in the last 2 minutes last week, made things look worse than what they maybe were...Millburn and Chapman out, Ablett won't bee 100%...
Dees a good record v. Geelong, incuding 'just' a 30 point loss as similar priced 'dogs in rd. 3 @ Kadinia.
But, I guess one thing Geelong continue to show is that it only takes one quarter for them to turn it on, and it's 10 goals in no time...
...scarily enough, they've also covered this number in 5 of their last 6 games! :scared
Don't think I'm brave enough, but I do suspect Melbourne are the play.
Wouldn't mind Brisbane +27.5 if it can drift out that far...
...oh, one other game I'm looking at is again going with the Crows game either under 24.5.
Numbers-wise, it's a very even game.
Last meeting @ AAMI was 9 points, and in fact, 4 of last 6 there have been 22 or less.
Exactly half of Adelaide's games have been under 24.5 (9/18) so on that basis alone the 1.95 is just about right...but last 3 and 5 of last 7...:00hour
(As their forwards have dropped off...or just down!)
The only thing that worries me is the last meeting, in Melbourne were the Crows absolutely belted them...no Burton in that game either...although Porplyzia kicked 3...
And really, a 1.7 first quarter last week, they could have easily beaten Carlton by a lot more.
Think Crows win, but they only have 4 wins by 4+ goals all season...Melbourne, West Coast, Carlton (just 5 more shots)...and Richmond. :shrug:
(PS. I just don't rate Collingwood!
)
