AFL:Round 21

[bombercoops]

Can't believe the season is almost over. Have taken a quick look at the lines for the week and a couple of games satnd out, particulary essendon v freo. I know the mighty done have been playing some solid footy of late as the finals approach but 20+ points against a freo side that has proven this year that they are not afraid of playing in melbourne is too much IMO. Pawa and cristo, what do you boys think about this one?:shrug: Will post other plays later in the week.

 

[MrChristo]

Take every fav this week, sit back with a beer and giggle

Essendon included, bomber.

 

[MrChristo]

Bloody weather....

Bloody weather....

...ruining everyone's plans! (Well, mine anyway!)

All things being eqaul Hawthorn beat Carlton by 80+, but will wait until game time, as forecast is for some bad weather.

Adelaide thump the Kanga's. Definately playing Crows -30.5. Ladhams, Massie, Stenglein, Stevens, Welsh...Some
very big IN's there. Kanga's finally with nothing to play for, playing some youngsters.
Crows win big regardless of the conditions.

Liking Essendon -19.5.

I reckon Brisbane will cover the -37.5, but they might not.....No bet.

Collingwood still only beaten 2 teams in the top 8. Sydney won 9 of last 11 v. pies. Too scary for me. Sydney well above the odds at 1.95 IMO, but will they win?

Saints -23.5. Unfortunately won't be here to watch my boys get belted. (Have to play myself ). Let's be honest, on form St. Kilda by 1000! Doggies coming off the Perth trip. Travel 2 weeks in a row. Only problem I see is St. Kilda's record on the road. They have won 1 of 20! away from Victoria. In their defense the interstate teams have all been very strong and have been solid fav's each time.
Dog's have packed it in tho, and given a decent day will get absolutely pole-axed.

West Coast have some massive in's and need a good win. Melbourne have very good record in Perth (and traveling in general). Like Eagles -32.5

Port -29.5. Richmond are ****ed! Port in a canter.

Definately think $$ to be made by playing all the fav's.

Good Luck all

 

[bombercoops]

The other game I also really liked was the saints against the dogs. Not too many points considering both teams form over the past 3 weeks. Port over Richmond also looks favourable. A favs weekend ay Cristo? I hope you are very right come 5 pm on sat afternoon mate!

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Saints and Crows lines are the only two that appeal to me.
I'll sit back and cheer the Pies home with my system play. Jeez......It's going to be hard to yell ROCCA!!!.....TARRANT!!!! and the hardest of all.....BUCKLEY!!!!

 

[bombercoops]

Very true pawa, if you are not a with the pies you are definitely against them. Hope they get it done for you in what should be a ripper on sat night.

 

[The Incentive]

just be careful if taking port - this week. Port realistically have nothing to play for, theyve sticthed up top spot and are going in w/out a ruckman. They have Crows next neek. Of course all things being equal port should flog richmond. Just wouldnt bet your house on it is all.


Really like Coll this week, dont know why. Prob the swans D will struggle with rocca and tarrant and Testra Stadium isnt anything like the SCG advantage.

Time will tell.

 

[MrChristo]

Valid point, Incentive.

Taken Hawks -35.5 tonight.

Prob the swans D will struggle with rocca and tarrant

For Saturday

A few early morning fog in the west. Cloud increasing and rain
developing later in the afternoon or evening.
Light to moderate north to northeast winds, freshening later in the day.

That might help

 

[bombercoops]

Not just a punter but a weather man also christo, I like your work.
Good job on the hawks last night also. I originally thought that the port/tigers game was at AAMI which is why I thought port would be a good play and now that they have top spot sealed up that they may play with a little less 'stick'. On the other hand they may come out guns blazing as they definitely wouldn't want to drop a game to Richmond 2 weeks out from the finals. Staying away is probably the best option. On the saints for sure and considering the crows. Will be sweating the dons game out today in the hope that we can continue the climb up the ladder.

 

[MrChristo]

I will actually be a weatherman for you guys on Sunday for the Doggies/Saints game, bomber. Will look out my kitchen window!

Was a bit frustrated at the Hawks last night being only 21 up with 11 extra shots, but got the job done with ease in the end.

Not playing Essendon today. News that Wellman still out, and now Fletcher doubtful with an ankle scares me. (Although JJ back.)
Freo have a good enough D to keep Lloyd quiet...should be a cracker. Essendon 1-40 better option, can't really see them dropping it.

Weather shit in Adelaide currently, but still taking Crows. Lots to play for to hang onto 2nd spot and a home final. (And no doubt praying for a Swans win to sneak into 3rd )

Port still very good at the Dome. Even playing conservative football should be good enough to beat the Tiges by a wide margin.

 

[bombercoops]

Today's game should be a cracker but think freo have a definite chance of winning it. The dons come out sluggish every once in a while and with freo's leg speed and ability to kick goals could well stun the dons if they come out firing. Thanks for the injury news though cristo as I am now back in texas and therefore haven't seen what is going on with player injuries and weather etc. Fletcher out would be quite a blow. Playing the pies tonight also. Not going to the game tomorrow cristo?:shrug:

 

[MrChristo]

Back in Texas, bomber!

Quick trip home mate. (although time does wizz by these days :shrug: )

Unfortunately (well...probably not! ) I am playing myself tomorrow. Elimination final, so can't really miss it, as much as I want to see the Doggies run around.

Strange day here today. Heavy fog this morning which usually indicates a fine, sunny day....but it lifted only to reveal more fog a little further up!
Doesn't look like raining tho...Good news for the Saints.

Still looks like lots of rain about in Adelaide tho. Heavy wind actually starting to scare me. Definately waiting until I see for myself.

 

[MrChristo]

Belting down in Adelaide.

Scared me off the game.....Looks like an action free, relaxed afternoon. :drinky:

 

[bombercoops]

Christo, was home for 3 and a half months but unfortunately it all came to an end and few days ago. Good thing you stayed away from that adelaide game as the roos arte just about to cause a major upset leading by over 2 goals with 3 minutes to play. How happy are ya pawa? Sleeping giant awakens this afternoon at the 'G' with a thud- and bring on the pies next week!:nono: Playing port(-29.5), St Kilda(-24.5) and collingwood to round out the weekend.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Yes bomber, my Roos despite trying to kick twice as many behinds have pulled off a major upset. Unfortunately its weeks too late!!! They have given me the highs and the lows this year.

The passing today of "Captain Blood" Jack Dyer might spur that hopeless Tigers mob into action against Port Adelaide tomorrow.
Be wary of a lift perhaps.

Now let's get on with the big one tonight......


GO YOU MAGPIES!!!!! RRRAAAAAARRRRGGHHHHH!!!!!!!!

 

[beast2]

Kangas were excellent in the poor conditions and should of won by ten goals with the number of scoring shots they had compared to Adelaide. Rocca kicked 2.4 and King 0.5.

As for Adelaide they had no plan for the wet weather. Kicking wide when should have gone long down the corridor. Worse I've seen them play this year and by all reports can't use the flu as an excuse this week.

Be warned we are getting a clear indication of the saying playing for position on the ladder is never enough motivation for a team to win. Brisbane last week and Adelaide this week are clear examples of teams with second spot on the line not having enough motivation.

Craig

 

[MrChristo]

Collingwood looking good early, PAWA

Great bet (depending on conditions) tomorrow.

Doggies/Saints over 226 points is a whooping 7.00!!
201-225 paying 4.25.

THE worst defense in the league and the 3rd worst......Given a fine day Fraser Gehrig could well kick that on his own!!

Definately Saints -23.5

 

[bombercoops]

Over 226 for $7 is not a bad return at all if it doesn't blow too much down your way tomorrow christo. Might be worth a small investment. Like you say though, saints are definitely the play. Good to see the pies get the job done tonight and win us all some $$. This has to be the tightest season for years as far as where everyone is going to finish on the ladder as there is only one team that knows where they are going to finish. On to tomorrow's games and good luck with your own game cristo!

 

[MrChristo]

Hold everything!

Hold everything!

Today is the worst day I have seen in Launceston for the 5 years I have been here!!

It is pouring and has not stopped since 11 last night. Windy also! A thunderstorm not outy of the question either....One SERIOUSLY bad day.

The ground here is magnificant, but there are 3 games to be played on it today, so it is likely to be very choppy by the time the big boys run out.

DEFINATELY no play on the total......also no play for me on the Saints. (Although Darcy is out for us....but in the conditions that's no biggy!) Ha!..No biggy..get it!!...Sorry, it's 7am :nono:

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Any snow Christo???
Hang on a sec........are you saying that you chose to live in Tasmania!!!


How did you go yesterday?