1-2 last week.
17-10-1 in own thread.
27-19-1 since first posting in Rd. 10.
You guys are MAD for taking the Kangas at 1.15!!! :scared
I know Carlton don't really want to win...but some niggly signs of an AFL conspiracy last week??...
...The umpiring was so far to the Blues' advantage after HT last week it was getting silly! Could the AFL be doing everything in their power (cough!) to get rid of this talk of tanking, and priority pick debate?? :SIB
Been busy this week...flew up to Canberra on Thursday morning, back late last night...
Strange place. Very, strange place... :shrug:
The Kangaroos last 5 haven't been great statistically...esp. their last 3, admittedly against 3 top class teams...
...but -8 I50's per game is actually worse than Carlton.
Of course their defense still is non-existant, but only trips to Sydney and Brisbane have seen them lose by more than 24 points in the last 7.
The Kangaroos haven't beaten Carlton by more than 30 since the end of the 2003 season...and 1 of those games (Rd. 22. 2005) was without Fev.
The first meeting this season was a 17 point win to Kangaroos @ Carrara, but equal I50's, equal clearances, Carlton had more of the ball...the difference was the Blues' leaky D...
...and I know it's a long way from turning right around, but they are off their best defensive performance of the year by a long way...allowing Ess to score just every 2.21 entries. (They av. 1.68!)
In fact, it's up to 1.82 in their last 5, so it looks like there's been some improvement at least under Ratten.
The Kangaroos have won just 1 game in their last 10 by more than 25 points @ the Dome, and that was against a horribly under-manned Melbourne in rd. 16.
Take no notice of Adelaide's win last week against the struggling Bulldogs (who they always beat anyway.) It was just their second win in their last 6, the other being at home against Port by just 8 points...and that includes a loss at home to 13th placed Freo, and also Essendon who are really struggling right now.
They've struggled all year at home, mainly with kicking a big enough score to win...they av. just 2 more shots a game at home than their opp, and travelling to AAMI certainly doesn't worry the Lions, having won 4 of their last 5 games there, and not lost a game by more than 6 points in their last 9!! (They've been reasonably big underdogs the last 2 wins aswell)
Despite the hickup v. Hawthorn, where they only had 4 less shots anyway, Brisbane are still going aswell as any team in the comp (besides Geelong of course!!)
They av. +13 I50's in their last 5, and when you have J. Brown in your team you're never out of it!
Will gladly take the points here, and a win @ 3.00 is a distinct possibility.
Why are Essendon big favs here? Makes no sense to me at all.
-8 I50's in the last 5...Richmond just -3...in fact they had more forward entries than West Coast last week in Perth!!
Richmond haven't been scoring all that well, but have played some good defensive teams, and Essendon have allowed 31 shots or more in 7 of their last 9!!
Tough to believe, but the last SEVEN Richmond losses have been all by teams in the top 8!!!...bad run! They beat a struggling Collingwood, and I don't see any reason at all they won't beat an equally poor Essendon who have just 2 wins in their last 7, and haven't won a game in the last 12 by more than 12 points!
Combine that with a god-awful MCG record (3 wins in their last 10, none by more than 13), and these odds look way off... :shrug:
Played Brisbane +16 and Tiges +14.5
Good luck guys!
