AFL Round 21:

bombercoops

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Maybe a little over reaction to the dons loss on the weekend and I know injuries aren't great for us right now but 40.5 points is alot for friday nights game IMO. Dogs play very much the opposite of the crows in style of play but we have enough speed of our own to be able to hopefully keep up for a while and cover the number. First one out of the gates is therefore;

Essendon +40.5
 

MrChristo

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Sexlexia...
Waiting for team news tonight...

...but yeah, looks like they have about 24 players to pick from!
(And none of them are over 5'10! :142smilie )

Maybe McVeigh back which will be big...

I do agree I nearly fell off the chair when I saw +40 tho!
(I had Essendon +18 as a play! :scared ...can injuries really account for an extra 4 goals?? :shrug: )

The other 2 games that stood out to me are Freo +20.5 which I'm still weighing up...not sure how much stock to put into Freo last week...maybe they've put the cue in the rack...

...but West Coast +39.5 looks a definate play for me. :0corn
 

bombercoops

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I spared a thought for west coast also christo but not a fan of backing a team that's only won 3 games this year- never know what you're going to get I guess.
Yep, about 24 players to choose from mate. Large issues in the ruck so if we get smashed in the clearances like last week, things could get messy.
 

MrChristo

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Sexlexia...
West Coast +38.5

West Coast's last 4 games have been statistically quite good, the main difference being that they have finally got something going up forward, av. a shot every 1.85 entries compared to 2.02 for the season!
The possible inclusion of Hansen will help that even more...
...and that's where Hawthorn have fallen down all season. Allowing a shot every 1.78 entries...1.44 last week to Richmond.
Eagles have been ok at home all season, just -4 I50's per game, now with a decent forward line shuold be dangerous.
Hawthorn have travelled 3 times and snuck 3 wins, but all by 15 or less.
Hodge out (kicked 3 last meeting)...and the Hawks 'only' won that last meeting by 57, despite WC being terrible on the road.


Sydney @ Collingwood either under 24.5 (1.97)

7 of the last 9 regular season meetings have been within this number...and the other 2 games there were only 4 shots diffference, despite the 25 an 29 point margins.
Nothing between the teams form-wise (last 4) and Sydney road games tend to be close, low scoring games.
4 of their 6 games outside of NSW have ended 19 or less...3 games that Sydney have played in the dome this year have been +2, 0 and -2!!
...and...Collingwood's last 5 have all been inside 19 points at the venue!
 

MrChristo

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Sexlexia...
Carlton +19.5

Just too many points now...not too sure why this line keeps rising?!
The games Carlton have struggled with this year have been against good defensive midfields...but even at home where they are at their best, they still allow over 47 I50's (more than Port!)...
...and in their last 4 games they are av'ing just 46 themsleves, compared to Carlton's 55!
Brisbane won the first meeting in Melbourne by 32, but had just 3 more shots...
Carlton off a bg loss but against a genuine top 4 team at their peak...
...big chance to win, but should be close either way.
 

bombercoops

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Nice call on the blues christo. Atmosphere at the game was great considering I was sitting in the carlton members section. Strange game from half time and can't believe they came back to win! Impressive effort. Fev 'sooked' for most of the night and didn't get too involved with the game.
Looking forward to a couple of these games today! GL with your roos paw. Big mountain to climb against the benchmark- let's hope they can keep it close.
 
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