Hard to believe it is the final round of footy (regular season anyway) for the year this week. Can't see too much change to the 8 after this weekend except the dons replacing freo in the number 8 spot should everything go according to plan. Hopefully your dogs don't have another trick up their sleeve this weekend christo.
AFL: Round 22
- Thread starter bombercoops
- Start date
Some indifferent lines this week obviously due to the importance of games to certain sides. Even thought the roos are out of it, 46.5 v brisbane is quite generous IMO and your dogs getting close to 6 goals must have you licking your chops 'C'. West Coast big favs in the west also?? Have Melbourne looked that bad in the last month or so??
You're right bomber...lines are hard to play this week.
Unlike most years, just about every team in the top 8 needs to win!!
In 2 cases tho, I think this is a good thing.
Sydney and West Coast....Barring some very strange happenings, will finish 6th and 7th.....Sydney finish 6th it appears they will get a home final.
You can be pretty sure that the Eagles would rather play at the MCG than in Sydney in a final.
Only about 2% separating them too!!...I'm expecting both teams to try and win BIG to get that 6th spot.
No reason why Sydney won't flog Richmond anyway!!...But yeah, Melbourne have been bad!! They looked horrible last week, bomber. Nietz OUT for this game. White wasn't 100% last week. Eagles are absolutely flying right now.
Reckon I'll be playing both fav's on Sat.
Sorry, mate, but the words Doggies and licking of chops, rarely go together these days!! :lol:
Other game I like is the Crows getting 20ish. Derby's are always close, and the Crows have only been beaten ONCE in their last 20 @ home by more than 21!!
Will be back closer to the w'end....Got 3 assignments that need doing NOW!! :cursin:
Unlike most years, just about every team in the top 8 needs to win!!
In 2 cases tho, I think this is a good thing.
Sydney and West Coast....Barring some very strange happenings, will finish 6th and 7th.....Sydney finish 6th it appears they will get a home final.
You can be pretty sure that the Eagles would rather play at the MCG than in Sydney in a final.
Only about 2% separating them too!!...I'm expecting both teams to try and win BIG to get that 6th spot.
No reason why Sydney won't flog Richmond anyway!!...But yeah, Melbourne have been bad!! They looked horrible last week, bomber. Nietz OUT for this game. White wasn't 100% last week. Eagles are absolutely flying right now.
Reckon I'll be playing both fav's on Sat.
Sorry, mate, but the words Doggies and licking of chops, rarely go together these days!! :lol:
Other game I like is the Crows getting 20ish. Derby's are always close, and the Crows have only been beaten ONCE in their last 20 @ home by more than 21!!
Will be back closer to the w'end....Got 3 assignments that need doing NOW!! :cursin:
56-35 (+20.98)
Sydney -24.5
As for reasons outlined above...Sydney will really be after this game to secure a home final. By my calcs, Sydney only have 36 points up their sleave on West Coast to finish with a higher % and claim 6th spot....So they will not let up on the Tiges, not like they have against the better sides.
MCG won't be a problem for Sydney..although they have played there only once this season (10 point loss to Ess), they won 2 of 3 there last year, inc. a 32 point win over Richmond as 2.20 'dogs.
Richmond have lost 13 games in a row, and only been beaten by less than 24 points in 4 of those games!! (Bottom placed Hawthorn, a woefully undermanned Collingwood, Freo @ MCG and Brisbane the week Frawley got the arse!!)
Weather forecast for a fine day...Pretty sure Sydney win this one going away.
Sydney -24.5
As for reasons outlined above...Sydney will really be after this game to secure a home final. By my calcs, Sydney only have 36 points up their sleave on West Coast to finish with a higher % and claim 6th spot....So they will not let up on the Tiges, not like they have against the better sides.
MCG won't be a problem for Sydney..although they have played there only once this season (10 point loss to Ess), they won 2 of 3 there last year, inc. a 32 point win over Richmond as 2.20 'dogs.
Richmond have lost 13 games in a row, and only been beaten by less than 24 points in 4 of those games!! (Bottom placed Hawthorn, a woefully undermanned Collingwood, Freo @ MCG and Brisbane the week Frawley got the arse!!)
Weather forecast for a fine day...Pretty sure Sydney win this one going away.
Collingwood just scrape in as the only 'express' play for this week. A torrid system season record of only 12-12 doesn't say much for the Magpies hopes!
Plenty of 'strong play' qualifiers....Sydney, West Coast, Brisbane, Saints and Essendon. These are 31-16 @ 66% and 16-2 when at home (leaves out Sydney). All are giving considerable points start and I would doubt that they could all cover but most, if not all, should salute in Multi action.
Bris/WC/Saints/Ess @ $1.90
Plenty of 'strong play' qualifiers....Sydney, West Coast, Brisbane, Saints and Essendon. These are 31-16 @ 66% and 16-2 when at home (leaves out Sydney). All are giving considerable points start and I would doubt that they could all cover but most, if not all, should salute in Multi action.
Bris/WC/Saints/Ess @ $1.90
Collingwood pipped by 1 point after having more scoring shots on the night. Typical of this system's season. Would love to be on the right side of these close ones just once or twice!! Would have made a huge difference to the bank. Thems the breaks. 
12-13 means a struggle to hit 50+% with four weeks worth of finals to come.
Pagan has done wonders with this 'motley crew' of hacks wearing the navy blue.
12-13 means a struggle to hit 50+% with four weeks worth of finals to come.
Pagan has done wonders with this 'motley crew' of hacks wearing the navy blue.
Must have been a great game to watch last night. The blues can probably say that they have had a decent season by reaching double-digit wins, something most probably didn't expect them to achieve. Sorry to hear you were on the wrong end of it pawa! Who kicked the last point/s of the game??
Jumping on the roos getting a stack from brisbane considering it is anthony stevens last game. 4 units @ +47.5. This will get me back to at least a decent season balance should it hit. Still think your dogs are good value christo.
Jumping on the roos getting a stack from brisbane considering it is anthony stevens last game. 4 units @ +47.5. This will get me back to at least a decent season balance should it hit. Still think your dogs are good value christo.
Careful bomber...Emotion can only get you so far!!
Colbert and Archer out will make it tough for the Kangas to stop Brisbane's forwards. I'd guess Brown gets Brown and Watt gets Lynch (which could get UGLY!!), Pike and Bradshaw will be on much smaller opponents.
Same deal with the Doggies mate...No Harris leaves Bassett on Lloyd. (I'd assume!!!...surely they wouldn't play Hargrave there as named!!...If Hargrave does get the job, look out Fred!!..Lloydy just might kick 40!!!)
As always it will come down to our accuracy at goal...and after a good one last week, I wouldn't be too confident that they can string 2 together.
This is going to sound insane, but I have a sneaky feeling about Freo!!!
Something weird HAS to happen in this last round...Hope for your sake it's the Kanga's that pull the inevitable big upset
Colbert and Archer out will make it tough for the Kangas to stop Brisbane's forwards. I'd guess Brown gets Brown and Watt gets Lynch (which could get UGLY!!), Pike and Bradshaw will be on much smaller opponents.
Same deal with the Doggies mate...No Harris leaves Bassett on Lloyd. (I'd assume!!!...surely they wouldn't play Hargrave there as named!!...If Hargrave does get the job, look out Fred!!..Lloydy just might kick 40!!!)
As always it will come down to our accuracy at goal...and after a good one last week, I wouldn't be too confident that they can string 2 together.
This is going to sound insane, but I have a sneaky feeling about Freo!!!
Something weird HAS to happen in this last round...Hope for your sake it's the Kanga's that pull the inevitable big upset
I guess you're right christo- emotion only carries you soo far! Pawa, not comments on the board at the moment?? I hope you stayed off the bottle last night! Those 4 units I threw at it have obviously not helped my balance as inteneded. Glad I didn't have to watch it for that reason! Would have been nice to see stevens go out on a good note from a team perspective though.
40 goals from Lloyd would be nice 'C' but 7 would be enough for him to capture the coleman again which will be more than satisfactory. A 6 goal opening quarter like last year would be nice!
40 goals from Lloyd would be nice 'C' but 7 would be enough for him to capture the coleman again which will be more than satisfactory. A 6 goal opening quarter like last year would be nice!
No shame in being hammered by 100+ by the GREATEST TEAM EVER bomber. Just think that Stevo deserved better on his final AFL game. This Brisbane mob would hammer the great Hawthorn sides of the 80's :chairshot
My Roos can now look forward to "Mad Monday" :drinky: :142crying :argue: :toast:
My Roos can now look forward to "Mad Monday" :drinky: :142crying :argue:
:toast: You're right paw! This team will have to go down as the best ever you would think, especially if they are to get it done again this year. Scary thought- a team winning it's fourth straight flag! :scared Amazing how they are able to turn it on against any team when it is the business time of the season.
Port -17.5 x 1 unit.
Port -17.5 x 1 unit.
Had a unit on the over 214.5 @ 2.35 in the Ess/Doggies game bomber.
Will give me a reason to hope Llyod kicks a bag!!
(And hope we kick straight again!)
Will give me a reason to hope Llyod kicks a bag!!
(And hope we kick straight again!)
GL with the total 'C'. Will be pulling for you along with what is hopefully a "bag" from Lloyd.
By the way, what's the update with the female and yourself in the tipping currently?? Looking forward to your honest reply! :142lmao:
By the way, what's the update with the female and yourself in the tipping currently?? Looking forward to your honest reply! :142lmao:
The regular season is over and what a great year it has been for my selections going 45-29 (60%) for +11.5 Units.
Adelaide ended the season with a pretty decent effort only going down by 25 to Port despite having no interchange for much of the second half. I do see some positives for the Crows and will be interested to see what trades the club makes in the offseason.
As for the finals, Brisbane are a clear favorite once again and the only other teams capable of causing an upset are Port and St Kilda with Port the team I expect them to meet in the Grand Final.
Bring on the finals
Craig
Adelaide ended the season with a pretty decent effort only going down by 25 to Port despite having no interchange for much of the second half. I do see some positives for the Crows and will be interested to see what trades the club makes in the offseason.
As for the finals, Brisbane are a clear favorite once again and the only other teams capable of causing an upset are Port and St Kilda with Port the team I expect them to meet in the Grand Final.
Bring on the finals
Craig
A good season Beastyboy....well done mate :clap:
All five 'strong plays' saluted for a 36-16 season tally @ 69% / 31-21 ATS @ 59.6%. Essendon & Saints failing to cover. When at home the record is an amazing 20-3 @ 86.9% / 16-7 ATS @ 69.5%
I've only hit on this trend over the last few weeks so haven't taken full advantage of these numbers. Will need to go back over years gone by using the same method to see if it holds up long term or whether its just an 'on' season. Interesting non the less and could be the future foundations of a handy new system. :brows:
All five 'strong plays' saluted for a 36-16 season tally @ 69% / 31-21 ATS @ 59.6%. Essendon & Saints failing to cover. When at home the record is an amazing 20-3 @ 86.9% / 16-7 ATS @ 69.5%
I've only hit on this trend over the last few weeks so haven't taken full advantage of these numbers. Will need to go back over years gone by using the same method to see if it holds up long term or whether its just an 'on' season. Interesting non the less and could be the future foundations of a handy new system. :brows:
