AFL: Round 22

[bombercoops]

Should be a ripper tomorrow night between the pies and crows at the dome. Basically the first week of finals for the crows, knowing that a win will see them safely in the 8, and a loss will cost them a spot in the finals, with the saints playing richmond the next day. Staying away from this one.
Like the cats this week to re-group after last weeks loss to port. Giving up 15.5 to a brisabne side who is now out of the finals picture (bar some extra-ordinary results) appears a good play. Will wait for the other results before loading up here tho.
Also, can't remember the last time sydney were 'dogs' at home to anyone- been quite a while. I know a win doesn't effect their position on the ladder but surely they will want to go into the finals not having lost at home the week before. +11.5?? Quite appealing.....
Can't believe how quick the season comes and goes. Finals next week already! :scared

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Port v Freo game just been suspended at the books coops as the word is out that Freo are dropping key players for breaching alcohol curfews midweek and other disciplinary reasons.

*cough* ..bullshit.. *cough*

Word is that Freo want to get smashed to guarantee hometown rivals, West Coast, don't get a home final in week one!! Port's percentage is same as Eagles. Whichever team wins by the most gets the home advantage. Eagles will be out to crush Hird/Sheedy swansong!!

Port should win by more and claim second position!!

I got the early tip and had a nibble on WC >39 / Port >24 / Hawks / Melb @ $7.21 :SIB

 

[bombercoops]

Wow, hard to believe with Harvey now at the helm. I know finals are out of the equation but still....... below the belt reason for getting flogged- just to prevent the Weagles from a home final. Time will tell with that one I guess.
Nice looking multi tho paw- strong odds. Hawks definitely your key game there for the pay off. Hope it hits for ya mate.

 

[MrChristo]

1-1 last week.
18-11-1 in own thread.
28-20-1 since first posting in Rd. 10.

Yeah, still odds available @ Lassetters, but been crashing all morning. Down to 1.15 now I think, -30ish...

Can't believe how quick the season comes and goes. Finals next week already! :scared

Tell me about it, Coops! I can still vividly remember the opening round...so much promise for a team of quick, skillful young Doggies... :shrug: :mj07:

I'm not convinced on all this Hawthorn hype either Pawa...even with the teams named I dfon't think there's a hell of a lot between them, far less considering the SCG?

Richmond +17.5 a defninate...best I can see currently is 16.5, and I'll be on that I reckon.
Down to one thing...the MCG...well, more-over any venue that is exposed to the elements!
In games outside the dome this season, St. Kilda av. an amazingly low 67 ppg!!
45 I50's, a shot every 2.17 for 20 shots per game...tough to see them holding Richmond to a score low enough to win by a big margin.
As I've mentioned before, Richmond have had a horror draw, playing 6 of the top 7 in the last 8 games...and won the other 2!
They lost by 17 points last meeting, but that was at the Saints preferred home at the dome...
...St. Kilda have played 7 of their last 9 at the dome...and I guess unsurprisingly have lost the two away from 'home', and even so a winning margin of exactly 16.5 in their last 6 wins (at all grounds) hardly inspires confidence.

OK....Sydney, 2.60 @ home?!...not just "home", but SCG home? Yeah...might be missing O'Loughlan, Buchanon, Kennelly...resting Hall...
...but Barry back...and it's at the SCG?!...where they've won and covered 9 of 10 spreads.
They av. +7 I50's, hold teams to 20 shots and win by 50 points!
Clearly personel makes a difference, but in what figures to be a low scoring, defensive slog, the home team is being amazingly under-rated here, imo.
Hawthorn's form? Last 9 games, 5 wins...Collingwood with 7 less shots!! Richmond, Essendon, Brisbane (just 4 more shots @ MCG) and Doggies...all bottom 7 teams.
Sydney haven't been great either, but just 1 of last 6 at SCG, and 12 point loss @ WC and a draw @ Brisbane look a lot tougher tasks than hosting Hawthorn.

Kangaroos @ 1.30 is a joke...a good, funny joke that is!!

Collingwood v. Adelaide under 192.5

Seems a very big total for a Crows game.
They've gone over this number just twice all season, and they were both due to some very, VERY straight kicking...a combined 35-17 v. Freo, and 34-18 v. Essendon.
Collingwood look to be getting back to some decent defensive form, allowing just 26, 26, 25 and 21 shots in their last 4.
The last 7 meetings (2003) have ALL been under this amount, av. 158.2!
There really shouldn't be too many more than 100 I50's in this game, so with any semblance of 'normal' kicking, we shouldn't see too many points.
(In fact they are the lowest and 3rd lowest teams for accuracy!)

Good luck guys.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Hope you're right about the Sydney v Hawks game Christo. My Roos should slot straight into 4th with the double chance. :SIB

If the Crows get it done tonight then the Saints will have nothing to play for against the Tigers and that start looks juicier.


That Adelaide total has got me interested. Will go find me some of that! Praying for Crows in a low scoring slugfest!!

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Christo......I must commend you on bringing up the Adelaide total tonight. I went back and had a closer look and you were spot on! No way was that total gunna be surpassed in a 'finals type' game.

I loaded up a fair bit on it and didn't have to sweat one little bit!

Between todays NFL (most of them yours), my system pick and this total.....I have cashed a fair few grand in the last 12 hours! :mj06:

You played a big part in the pillaging mate so thanks.

A big day indeed. :spotting:


:toast:

 

[bombercoops]

You guys seem to have started the weekend on the right note- solid! I guess the Mrs deserves some special wining and dining this weekend paw now that you've been cleaning the books outta $$$!
Adding, Richmond ML for tomorrow. Saints shouldl be deflated now that the crows are in.....

 

[MrChristo]

:00hour :00hour Indeed!

It's funny with that total...I usual right down limits for unders/overs I would like to take during the week...
...I know some will be close to being plays, while some are just unrealistic.

I nearly wasn't even going to bother checking last night, 'cause I had 190 jotted down and thought there'd be no way in hell they'd be that generous!! :mj07:

Good thing I did.

No need to sweat at all, but man, putting up with a combination of Schwartz and Watson is enough to make you turn the tv off!! (Sound down at the very least!)

ok...no motivation for the Saints today. Let's hope they play like it

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Roos blow out the bulldogs to grab 4th spot and the double chance!! WOO-HOO!! :00hour

:jump:


dance2 dance2 dance2



Hey Christo.....we'll trade ya Leroy Brown for a slab of Gatorade!! :142smilie

 

[MrChristo]

You can keep the big, angry lump. **

Now, not saying I expect the Kangas to win next weekend...
...but Geelong opening @ 1.16?!!! :nono:
Egan in doubt, Mooney not 100%. Bartel??

Will be jumping on the 'Roos +high 20's at this rate for sure! :SIB

** Actually how about we give you Eagleton, McMahon to sweeten the deal. They are currently trading at far less than that slab.

 

[bombercoops]

Congrats to your roos on a solid season pawa. 4th spot, who woulda thought?? Especially after you told me early in the year that they were going to be horrendous this season- lol! Looks like a tidy opening weekend of finals........good match-ups!