AFL......Round 22

[PAWAQATSI]

Season to date 44 - 40

Scarey round this one with all sorts of outcomes changing the final make-up of the 8. My personal leans are for Port Adelaide +6.5 v Brisbane I figure that if they are ever going to beat the Lions, it has to be here and now. Coz' if they can't do it in the last round at their own stadium,there is no point turning up come Grand Final day!!!:nono: Plus Brissy are probably due to drop one anyway.
I expect you scoff at that one MrC!!!! :thefinger

Next up I'll put "the MOZZ" on MrC's Bulldogs Having your Coach say he's had enough with just one game to go for the season has got to fire up these guys for a big performance. I expect that they will do this one to show him up. Personally I think Wallace is a bit over-rated. One Preliminary Final in six years is nothing to write home about in my book!!!! I guess we'll see just how good he is when he turns up at Carlton or Sydney next season...Plus lets remember that Collingwood have been struggling over the last month...Western Bulldogs +6.5 v Collingwood

Next up I like the Saints against the Demons. St.Kilda have been abit stiff in recent weeks as far as wins go but they have fought it out to the end in most. Give me a chunk of St. Kilda +15.5 v Melbourne thanks Mister.....

Last of all I am keen on my Kangaroos to ground the West Coast Eagles up in the cold climate of Canberra. Roos are 5 from 6 at Manuka Oval and we all know that the Eagles turn into galahs when they travel Kangaroos ML v W.C. Eagles



Pawamech System record to date 25-14 @ 64%

The machine has spat out 4 eligible teams that pass the strict "John West" test...and I'm a little concerned by some of them but I go with the flow anyway.

Hawthorn -8.5 v Geelong
Sydney -17.5 v Richmond
Kangaroos ML v W.C. Eagles
Essendon -34.5 v Carlton

Good punting fellas with whatever you take....

 

[MrChristo]

Now, PAWA....I scoff at nothing

That game is going to be a cracker, and you're a braver man than I to try and pick it!

I think I'm going to lurk in the shadows until Sunday.
By then we will know who will finish where.....and where teams WANT to finish

There is a lot of money to be made on Sunday, methinks.

If Geelong and Melbourne both win then Essendon will be sitting firmly and snuggly in 8th position, which (given Brisbane win) is the place to be

I know there are a whole world of if's and but's ATM, but come Saturday night the $$ may begin to fly

BTW, really like the Kanga's too. The price is great due to injuries, but I don't see it hurting you guys that much.
Again, if Geelong and Melbourne both win it will become a huge play for me, given the Eagles will be playing for nothing!

Oh, and one more point....
Depending on the Brisbane/Pawat game, Adelaide amy or may not want to win on Sunday either. They will not want to travel to Brisbane the following week, so if Pawat and Collingwood get up, Adelaide just might not

Good luck on Friday and Saturday mate...build up a healthy stash for Sunday's fun and games

 

[beast2]

Season to Date: 42 -28 (60%)

Round 22 Play
Hawthorn -6.5 d Geelong

We post later with further plays for the weekend.


Craig

 

[MrChristo]

Nice start Craig and Mech

It's thrown my whole weekend betting scheme out of whack

PAWA, if you don't mind me asking......How do you think this will affect the Kanga's/WC game on Sunday?

As I said before I would have put my house on your boys if West Coast were no chance for finals, but now they have some huge motivation, Kanga's a bit thin on the ground....may even rest Harvey for finals????
Of course you still will want to win to finish 5th rather than 6th or 7th, but how do you honestly rate their chances now?
(I see mech likes it, and that's nearly enough to sway me )

FWIW, I also think the Doggies are a good thing tomorrow, although the odds are a little shorter than I would have liked
In 21 weeks of tipping I have gotten them wrong 4 times.....(both times against your mob :moon: ) , so I have a pretty good handle on me Dogs
Big chance of rainy, or at least wet conditions which will suit us, really like the chances of a win here!

Looks like I'll sit out the weekend then, until after the Brissy/Pawat game.....still a reasonable bet in the Freo game on offer

Good luck for the rest of the weekend guys.

 

[beast2]

Here is a writeup for the rest games:

Collingwood v Western Bulldogs
Bulldogs will be fired up after the events of the past week and will have a point to prove. Collingwood are on the other hand are playing for little as either 3rd or 4th will see them travel interstate.

Play Westen Bulldogs 2.00

Port v Brisbane
Its 1 v 2 for the minor premiership and 2 home finals as the losing team will be forced to play at the MCG in preliminary final week. Very hard to call so better to sit back and watch the action

No Play

Melbourne v St Kilda
A very important game for Melbourne needing a victory to guarantee a finals spot. Melbourne were brought back to earth against Sydney last week. St Kilda have managed to keep close to their opponents without winning and therefore at the 13.5 line I say No Play.

No Play

Sydney v Richmond
There is nothing to say on this meaningless game:

No Play


Kangaroos v West Coast
After the friday night result this becomes a game of great importance as a win for West Coast will see them go into the finals. North Melbourne are unbeaten at Manuka Oval and despite injuries can still win this game. West Coast only have one away ein this year so I will stay out of this one.

No Play

Carlton v Essendon
Just how motivated will Essendon be.

No Play

Fremantle v Adelaide
An interesting rematch of the final round last year when Fremantle beat Adelaide convincingly. This time Adelaide is a better team and wants revenge for that game. Also Adelaide want to take winning form into the finals as they blame the lost to Freo last year for the poor performnce in the finals.

Play Adelaide

Craig

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Port win by 6 and Western Bulldogs crush the hapless Magpies
Your turn Sainters

Well done Beasty, though I'd switch from Adelaide to Fremantle if I were you now that the Crows have nothing to play for except injuries :nono:

 

[MrChristo]

Well done Pawa

I'm not convinced about your take on the Adelaide game tho.

You're right, they can't move and will be playing in Brisbane next week, but the talk all week from Adelaide has been about how the loss to Freo at the end of last year hurt the teams confidence for the finals.
I honestly think they will be out to win...Get some momentum up for next week.
Forecast is for a shitty, shitty day with thunderstorms and hail and load of wind. This will benefit the Crows.
Their mid-field being their major strength.....1st in clearances to Freo's 16th!!
The more stopages the better for the Crows.

I like them here, dunno if I'll be on them yet...Interesting to see what the prices do over-night.

Essendon -30 available too.....Deserves consideration

Will post tomorrow morning if anything changed my mind.....and/or my trigger finger

Good luck with the Kanga's mate

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Saints lose by 18...Doh! and the mech gets Sydney up by 40 points against the Tigers.

Pawamech record to 27 - 14 @ 65.8% and a handsome new mech bank of 397% As I said to MrC earlier > If only it weren't a pile of nuts, bolts and transistors......and if only I could change the laws in this backward state.....I'd marry you Pawamech!!!

Still going with Freo to crash the party!

 

[MrChristo]

:shrug: :shrug: :shrug: :shrug:

This (I think) will be the first time we publicly go head to head PAWA.......Take 10 paces and draw

I've found 2.20 for Adelaide...WAY too much I think.
As I said, rain, Bassett and Welsh two big inclusions......Going against big line movements is gold.......I tell you what....I'll take the +8.5 and we can both win

Kanga's can be had for 2.00 now too ...I'm still not convinced, but the wrong team is favoured for sure

Surely Essendon can beat Carlton by 30 :shrug:

 

[MrChristo]

Did take the +8.5

Not taking the Kanga's tho I do think they'll win ...er, if that makes sense :shrug:

One I do like it Essendon to get more possessions than Carlton @ 1.60.
Was 1.65 but when I clicked it has changes ...Still great value...I expected it to be 1.33 or there abouts.

Essendon 4th to Carlton 14th....Ess will now be playing to win......may even 'wax' at the end to save on contests and possible injuries.

You wanna keep a close eye on Mech too PAWA.....Some fancy get-up, a bottle of cheap Champers and a pursuasive friend and she's all mine.....Yaaaaahahhaaaaahhhhhaaaaaa

 

[beast2]

REGULAR SEASON RESULT: 45 -28 (61.6%)

Last Round: 3-0
Since Round 15: 12-2

Well what an end to the season it has been as far as my picking has gone. To finish the season on a 12-2 run and pick 3 winners in the final round is just unbelivable form.

I hope some of the people reading this have used my tips to make some money. I wil be back with my picks for the finals but with fewer games there may not be much opportunity for picking winners.

Craig

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Yes Beasty....a fine end to the home and away season my boy, if ya don't say so ya self! :toast: :clap:

I finished the season with a very poor 46 - 42 record @ 52 odd % dropping just over $500

Certainly one of my worse seasons in recent times. Tried to look for one too many each week me feels!


Then there is my old girl Pawamech who finished the last round with a 3 - 1 call. Missing on only the Kangaroos game

She tells me she can keep going into the Finals and improve on her 28 - 15 @ over 65% record. The mech bank is busting at the seams currently standing at 391% of starting balance!!!!

Will probably ride her home from here during the finals unless something really jumps out at me.

Congrats to MrC with the Adelaide call and the wise choice to stay clear of the Roos game. I have a feeling you did alright this week

Take it easy until next week fellas where the Finals await us.

*MrC e-mail me your NFL likings if you don't post on the relevant threads