Thought I would get the thread started for the week. Strange week last week with alot of the teams who were trailing storming home to get the 'W'. Round 4 already! Geez, the season fly's by.
AFL Round 4
- Thread starter bombercoops
- Start date
Don't think my Kangas can beat Collingwood this week. They have had the wood on us lately. We are just winning 'ugly'.
We are due for a loss.
We are due for a loss.
Leaning towards the Pies myself, PAWA...but wanted +13.5 from a betting pov...don't think I can take them at less than 2 goals....
Rain due, kind of negates Rocca/Thompson, but we know how bad they are when Tarrant does nothing, so who knows?!
All over Adelaide and Geelong, and you'd have to think West Coast -37.5 is a pretty solid bet.
Rain due, kind of negates Rocca/Thompson, but we know how bad they are when Tarrant does nothing, so who knows?!
All over Adelaide and Geelong, and you'd have to think West Coast -37.5 is a pretty solid bet.
Adelaide +19.5
Wow! Can anyone give the Crows some lovin'?! 2 good wins and a close loss to the Eagles, but public perception is that they're still crap.
Adelaide's defense is statistically much better than the Swans' at this stage, only allowing a shot at goal 2.5 every entries into the 50, which is best in the league. They also rebound the ball 60% of the time which is also best.
Adelaide have also had 31 more entries into their own 50 than Sydney, and are slightly better in the clearances.
Adelaide have won 4 of the last 5 meetings, 2 @ the SCG and a loss there last year by 13 points, with O'Loughlan kicking 2.
Really like Adelaide to win this one. 3 goals start is huge!
Geelong -13.5
Geelong are just a much better team than Essendon right now. Hird only about 50% will cancel out Ling being about the same.
The Cats have a big advantage in the ruck, and and even bigger edge in pace in the midfield....And their pace is a big reason they won 6 of 7 @ the dome last year by an av. of 43 points. (Inc. Essendon by 23)
Can't see Geelong being chalenged too much in this one.
Wow! Can anyone give the Crows some lovin'?! 2 good wins and a close loss to the Eagles, but public perception is that they're still crap.
Adelaide's defense is statistically much better than the Swans' at this stage, only allowing a shot at goal 2.5 every entries into the 50, which is best in the league. They also rebound the ball 60% of the time which is also best.
Adelaide have also had 31 more entries into their own 50 than Sydney, and are slightly better in the clearances.
Adelaide have won 4 of the last 5 meetings, 2 @ the SCG and a loss there last year by 13 points, with O'Loughlan kicking 2.
Really like Adelaide to win this one. 3 goals start is huge!
Geelong -13.5
Geelong are just a much better team than Essendon right now. Hird only about 50% will cancel out Ling being about the same.
The Cats have a big advantage in the ruck, and and even bigger edge in pace in the midfield....And their pace is a big reason they won 6 of 7 @ the dome last year by an av. of 43 points. (Inc. Essendon by 23)
Can't see Geelong being chalenged too much in this one.
Hoping to keep my Roos rolling by showing no faith in them again this week!!!
"We are shite!"...
"We have no chance!!"
Might keep 'em undefeated till seasons end at this rate!! :mj07:
Will be at the 'G' on Friday night with the 50 odd thou.
Liked the Crows after looking at the form....loved 'em after the system backed it up. Had a feeling you'd be all over 'em Christo.
Also like the Cats to cover but I'd never give 37 start, even if it is the Coasters @ home where they look invincible. This is probably the week where your Bulldogs decide to kick straight!!
"We are shite!"...
"We have no chance!!"
Might keep 'em undefeated till seasons end at this rate!! :mj07:
Will be at the 'G' on Friday night with the 50 odd thou.
Liked the Crows after looking at the form....loved 'em after the system backed it up. Had a feeling you'd be all over 'em Christo.
Also like the Cats to cover but I'd never give 37 start, even if it is the Coasters @ home where they look invincible. This is probably the week where your Bulldogs decide to kick straight!!
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Liked the adelaide bet at first glance also. Like you said christo, they're not getting too much respect at the moment and sydney getting plenty after their win at the gabba. I like the saints getting the start also and although they haven't played their best brand of footy to date this year, a solid melbourne team may be just what they need to bring it out. 17.5 start looks quite appealing here. Also don't mind freo giving 10.5 even though it is in melbourne. Clearly a much better team than richmond and can't see any reason why they won't get the 'W' here with advantages all over the field. Will post final plays tomorrow.
Have a few plays this weekend.
Collingwood have a strong recent record against the Kangaroos (winning 4 out of the past 5) - I like the way they ran over Carlton last week after looking in trouble and this should give them plenty of confidence - I think this game could go either way and I will take the points on offer.
Collingwood +9.5 vs Kangaroos (2 units)
I originally had this as a no bet and in some ways I still think the line is about right ? but Brisbane will be fuming after last weeks after the siren loss ? with Black and Charman back in the side I think they will come out firing and win this by a big margin ? some people are starting to rate Hawthorn a fair side after close matches with Richmond and Essendon but in my opinion they are destined for the wooden spoon.
Brisbane -24.5 vs Hawthorn (1 unit)
West Coast have started the season in good style and are almost certainties to make it 4 on the trot ? expect a comfortable win but will not be laying more than 6 goals as the Wstn Bulldogs have some history of playing well at Subiaco.
Slight lean on Essendon +17.5 and I don't mind betting against a Geelong side who are still being looked at based on last years form ? but will look closer at this one on the weekend.
This week will give a good indication of whether Port Adelaide are suffering a genuine hangover from last year or whether they will quickly turn it around and come back into calculations ? it is their 3rd week in a row at home so travel is not an issue for them ? and when you compare the sides on paper the Carlton backline should really struggle ? very hard to back Port Adelaide after last weeks big defeat but I think the real Port Adelaide show up this week.
Port Adelaide -23.5 vs Carlton (2 units)
Very hard to ignore Adelaide?s good start to the season ? solid effort against a strong West Coast side followed up with an away win against Collingwood and a really impressive thumping of Port Adelaide ? everything went their way but they looked like the good Adelaide side of 2-3 years ago ? tough trip playing in Sydney and at the SCG ? but I had this line 6-7 points shorter than the bookies ? a bit of rain forecast may see the line move in nearer game time so I am jumping on Adelaide now - I rate this the best bet of the season to date ? and looking at some of the other comments it seems most of us agree on this.
Adelaide +20.5 vs Sydney (3 units)
The other 2 Sunday games I am not really fussed on ? lines look about right but will have a closer look on the weekend.
Good luck everyone.
Collingwood have a strong recent record against the Kangaroos (winning 4 out of the past 5) - I like the way they ran over Carlton last week after looking in trouble and this should give them plenty of confidence - I think this game could go either way and I will take the points on offer.
Collingwood +9.5 vs Kangaroos (2 units)
I originally had this as a no bet and in some ways I still think the line is about right ? but Brisbane will be fuming after last weeks after the siren loss ? with Black and Charman back in the side I think they will come out firing and win this by a big margin ? some people are starting to rate Hawthorn a fair side after close matches with Richmond and Essendon but in my opinion they are destined for the wooden spoon.
Brisbane -24.5 vs Hawthorn (1 unit)
West Coast have started the season in good style and are almost certainties to make it 4 on the trot ? expect a comfortable win but will not be laying more than 6 goals as the Wstn Bulldogs have some history of playing well at Subiaco.
Slight lean on Essendon +17.5 and I don't mind betting against a Geelong side who are still being looked at based on last years form ? but will look closer at this one on the weekend.
This week will give a good indication of whether Port Adelaide are suffering a genuine hangover from last year or whether they will quickly turn it around and come back into calculations ? it is their 3rd week in a row at home so travel is not an issue for them ? and when you compare the sides on paper the Carlton backline should really struggle ? very hard to back Port Adelaide after last weeks big defeat but I think the real Port Adelaide show up this week.
Port Adelaide -23.5 vs Carlton (2 units)
Very hard to ignore Adelaide?s good start to the season ? solid effort against a strong West Coast side followed up with an away win against Collingwood and a really impressive thumping of Port Adelaide ? everything went their way but they looked like the good Adelaide side of 2-3 years ago ? tough trip playing in Sydney and at the SCG ? but I had this line 6-7 points shorter than the bookies ? a bit of rain forecast may see the line move in nearer game time so I am jumping on Adelaide now - I rate this the best bet of the season to date ? and looking at some of the other comments it seems most of us agree on this.
Adelaide +20.5 vs Sydney (3 units)
The other 2 Sunday games I am not really fussed on ? lines look about right but will have a closer look on the weekend.
Good luck everyone.
For anyone who's interested in tonight's game, there's a pretty strong rumour that Anthony Rocca is out with a hamstring.
I'd assume the Pies are going to drift during the day.
I'd assume the Pies are going to drift during the day.
Year to Date: 5-4 for +.5 Units
Sorry no time for write ups
Round 4 Plays
Kangaroos -10.5 d Collingwood
Geelong -18.5 d Essendon
Adelaide +18.5 d Sydney
Richmond +10.5 d Sydney
Craig
Sorry no time for write ups
Round 4 Plays
Kangaroos -10.5 d Collingwood
Geelong -18.5 d Essendon
Adelaide +18.5 d Sydney
Richmond +10.5 d Sydney
Craig
Not going to take the sainters due to their injury dramas but will jump on the freo bandwagon for the week -10.5 against the tiges. Surely they can cover the number if they play half-way decent footy on the weekend.
Plays: Adelaide +19.5
Freo -10.5
Plays: Adelaide +19.5
Freo -10.5
Watched my Roos trip over the line again tonight against the Pies. Tarrant blows the match winning goal in the last minute!! :mj07:
I don't know whether they brought us down to their level or whether we are the worst team to ever be 4-0 at the start of a season?!! We were lucky Rocca went off injured in the second or we would have lost by 5 goals I reckon. But winners are grinners and we'll keep taking 'em!
Melbourne, Geelong and Freo all giving the points start look appealing to me. Adelaide are the big one though.
Good luck fellas
I don't know whether they brought us down to their level or whether we are the worst team to ever be 4-0 at the start of a season?!! We were lucky Rocca went off injured in the second or we would have lost by 5 goals I reckon. But winners are grinners and we'll keep taking 'em!
Melbourne, Geelong and Freo all giving the points start look appealing to me. Adelaide are the big one though.
Good luck fellas
I have alot of catching up to do pawa now that your roos are 4-0. The dons will probably be 1-3 after tonight which will make things tough in regard to our little wager. How are you feeling about it all christo?
LOL! I love it! I'll buy the lycra and put the shorts together! You'll have a complete roos outfit to look forward to paw! May even throw in some socks.
On a serious note, I can't belive that I just watched the hawks dismantle the lions by 46 points. Who would have thought. It would be almost fair to say that the brisbane dynasty is done with after that performance.
For anyone else who watched the footy show on thursday night, how good was it to see Sam put 'aker' in his place about how up himself he is. Loved it as someone had to say it! He won't have much to chirp about this week.
On a serious note, I can't belive that I just watched the hawks dismantle the lions by 46 points. Who would have thought. It would be almost fair to say that the brisbane dynasty is done with after that performance.
For anyone else who watched the footy show on thursday night, how good was it to see Sam put 'aker' in his place about how up himself he is. Loved it as someone had to say it! He won't have much to chirp about this week.
Very hard to believe it was, bomber!
Loving seeing Ryan Griffen looking like a player in his debut, aswell right now.
Just seen the totals for tonights games....over 192.5 Port v. Carlton looks like a decent bet.
The Blues defense has become very undermanned, and they've allowed 105+ in all 3 games.
Port have played 3 very good defensive teams, and the Brisbane game was in a gale.
Carlton have had the 4th amount of shots at goal this year, they've had at least 25 shots in each game, and there's been over 50 total in all 3 games so far.
Forecast for a fine, calm night in Adelaide, and I think it should be a pretty open game.
Go the Cats tonight
Loving seeing Ryan Griffen looking like a player in his debut, aswell right now.
Just seen the totals for tonights games....over 192.5 Port v. Carlton looks like a decent bet.
The Blues defense has become very undermanned, and they've allowed 105+ in all 3 games.
Port have played 3 very good defensive teams, and the Brisbane game was in a gale.
Carlton have had the 4th amount of shots at goal this year, they've had at least 25 shots in each game, and there's been over 50 total in all 3 games so far.
Forecast for a fine, calm night in Adelaide, and I think it should be a pretty open game.
Go the Cats tonight
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Another lot of interesting results yesterday.
Hawthorn smashes Brisbane - geez my bet was unlucky only missing by 70 points !!!!
West Coast and Wstn Bulldogs was one sided - but the team covering the 35.5/36.5 spread chopped and changed a few times late in the game before landing on 36
Geelong gets on a huge roll coming from 20 points down to be 50 points up in approx 30 mins
Carlton come back from 4 goals down to grab a draw with Port Adelaide
I have a slight lean on Melbourne and Fremantle - but have decided that rather than putting money on these borderline games I will put another unit on Adelaide who I rate as one of the strongest AFL plays in the past couple of seasons.
The line is into +16.5 at some places but I can still get +19.5 @ $1.91 at Mansion.
Adelaide +19.5 vs Sydney (1 unit) making it an overall 4 unit play
:scared
Hawthorn smashes Brisbane - geez my bet was unlucky only missing by 70 points !!!!
West Coast and Wstn Bulldogs was one sided - but the team covering the 35.5/36.5 spread chopped and changed a few times late in the game before landing on 36
Geelong gets on a huge roll coming from 20 points down to be 50 points up in approx 30 mins
Carlton come back from 4 goals down to grab a draw with Port Adelaide
I have a slight lean on Melbourne and Fremantle - but have decided that rather than putting money on these borderline games I will put another unit on Adelaide who I rate as one of the strongest AFL plays in the past couple of seasons.
The line is into +16.5 at some places but I can still get +19.5 @ $1.91 at Mansion.
Adelaide +19.5 vs Sydney (1 unit) making it an overall 4 unit play
:scared
Nice hit on Adelaide by all of us. The saints showed they have plenty of options in the badg also by kicking up a towering score against the dees. Pissed that I stayed off them now! Anyways, good to see the dons run out yet another game!! Pitiful display! Freo weren't far behind them either in the effort catergory.
Record for the week: 1-1
Season: 4-3.
Record for the week: 1-1
Season: 4-3.
Another good week going 3-1.
Year to Date: 8-5 for +2.2 Units
Kangaroos recorded a lucky win over Collingwood but unfortunately didn't cover.
Hawthorn smashed Brisbane on Saturday. Hard to believe I was watching it. Can they continue the form in the coming weeks?
West Coast won as expected.
Watching the Geelong Essendon match I nearly gave up when Essendon went 20 up 10 minutes into the third. Then Geelong outscored Essendon 91 to 15!!! in the remainder to win by a mile. Essendon looked very bad in the last quarter and I think you may see a correction in Essendon lines from this week on.
Saw the last quarter of the Port Carlton game and couldn't believe it was draw. Port kicked 4 points in the dying stages when they could have won it and 2.10 for the last quarter. People are starting to question Port after the premiership and this may be reflected in lines in the coming weeks. Expect this to work in our favour.
Being an Adelaide supporter I am thrilled with the way we are playing and after last week to beat Sydney by 41 gives me great confidence for the rest of the year. It was good a number of us collected on this result.
Richmond did as I expected against Fremantle. An easy win against a side who still hasn't learnt to travel and if it weren't for the fact they played matched in WA they would be even further down the ladder.
St Kilda was a surprise to me. Didn't think they could beat the all conquering Melbourne.
Craig
Year to Date: 8-5 for +2.2 Units
Kangaroos recorded a lucky win over Collingwood but unfortunately didn't cover.
Hawthorn smashed Brisbane on Saturday. Hard to believe I was watching it. Can they continue the form in the coming weeks?
West Coast won as expected.
Watching the Geelong Essendon match I nearly gave up when Essendon went 20 up 10 minutes into the third. Then Geelong outscored Essendon 91 to 15!!! in the remainder to win by a mile. Essendon looked very bad in the last quarter and I think you may see a correction in Essendon lines from this week on.
Saw the last quarter of the Port Carlton game and couldn't believe it was draw. Port kicked 4 points in the dying stages when they could have won it and 2.10 for the last quarter. People are starting to question Port after the premiership and this may be reflected in lines in the coming weeks. Expect this to work in our favour.
Being an Adelaide supporter I am thrilled with the way we are playing and after last week to beat Sydney by 41 gives me great confidence for the rest of the year. It was good a number of us collected on this result.
Richmond did as I expected against Fremantle. An easy win against a side who still hasn't learnt to travel and if it weren't for the fact they played matched in WA they would be even further down the ladder.
St Kilda was a surprise to me. Didn't think they could beat the all conquering Melbourne.
Craig
2-0 for the week for me (won't count that total)
YTD: 8-6' +1.56
Just backing up what beast said about Port results working in our favour, I expect there to be 4 very nice bets next week...and there's every chance Port will be one of them.
YTD: 8-6' +1.56
Just backing up what beast said about Port results working in our favour, I expect there to be 4 very nice bets next week...and there's every chance Port will be one of them.
