AFL Round 4

[Cartman88]

Opening lines (from Centrebet):

19 Apr 19:45 AEST
ESSENDON 1.28
ADELAIDE 3.40

20 Apr 14:10 AEST
COLLINGWOOD 2.35
HAWTHORN 1.55

20 Apr 14:10 AEST
MELBOURNE 1.52
WEST COAST 2.40

20 Apr 19:10 AEST
BULLDOGS 5.00
BRISBANE 1.14

20 Apr 19:10 AEST
SYDNEY 1.48
KANGAROOS 2.50

21 Apr 13:10 AEST
PORT ADELAIDE 1.22
CARLTON 3.90

21 Apr 14:10 AEST
GEELONG 1.50
ST KILDA 2.45

21 Apr 15:40 AEST
FREMANTLE 2.25
RICHMOND 1.58

 

[Cartman88]

Opening lines (from Qld TAB):

19 Apr 19:45 AEST
ESSENDON 1.22
ADELAIDE 3.80

20 Apr 14:10 AEST
COLLINGWOOD 2.55
HAWTHORN 1.45

20 Apr 14:10 AEST
MELBOURNE 1.60
WEST COAST 2.20

20 Apr 19:10 AEST
BULLDOGS 4.85
BRISBANE 1.14

20 Apr 19:10 AEST
SYDNEY 1.55
KANGAROOS 2.30

21 Apr 13:10 AEST
PORT ADELAIDE 1.22
CARLTON 3.80

21 Apr 14:10 AEST
GEELONG 1.50
ST KILDA 2.40

21 Apr 15:40 AEST
FREMANTLE 2.30
RICHMOND 1.55

 

[Cartman88]

Looks to be some nice value on offer in Round 4.

Here are some very early thoughts:

Collingwood have been unimpressive so far but do seem over the odds against Hawthorn who have been equally unimpressive.

Port Adelaide look back to their best and if they can repeat last weekends performance then they should easily cover the spread against Carlton.

St Kilda looks a likely play with the points start they will be receiving against Geelong who are a very ordinary team.

 

[Cartman88]

I have managed to find an edge on most of the games this weekend so I have plays in 7 out of the 8 matches. There are two games which I am really keen on and will back for 2 units:

Essendon -20.5 vs Adelaide
Collingwood +16.5 vs Hawthorn
Melbourne -14.5 vs West Coast
Sydney -14.5 vs Kangaroos (2 units)
Port Adelaide -26.5 vs Carlton
St Kilda +16.5 vs Geelong (2 units)
Fremantle +8.5 vs Richmond

 

[Cartman88]

For anyone who is keen on Essendon -20.5 (available at Centrebet) I would recommend placing their bet sooner rather than later.

Generally there is strong late support for Essendon especially on Fri night matches.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Cartman88

St. Kilda and Geelong

2 very bad teams......could be a nil all draw!!



:nono: stay clear of this one!

 

[MrChristo]

Good luck, Cartman.

I've played 4 games this week, and 3 we agree with 3 of them, so thats a good sign

Have to agree with Pawaqatsi though on St.Kilda.

St. Kilda will be without Harvey, Burke and obviously still Gehrig and Everitt.

I realise that Geelong are poor, but last week Primus absolutely dominated both Capuano and Knobel in the ruck and I expect King to do the same thing this week. Although they are poor up forward, they should have enough ball up there to kick a winning score.....Hopefully not by more than 15

Good luck all.


Essendon -20.5 available at Olympic too ...Get on!

 

[beast2]

Year to Date: 5-5

Round 4 Plays
Essendon -20.5 d Adelaide
Melbourne -13.5 d West Coast
Port -26.5 d Carlton

Craig

 

[PAWAQATSI]

AFL Season year to date 4-8

Hoping to even up the ledger abit in this round!!

Like Collingwood +17.5
Port Adelaide -28.5
Fremantle +12.5

And my platter special is (unfortunately) Sydney to easily cover the -15.5 against my Kangaroos. They have belted us the last three times in Sydney and that was while "the King" was still playing with us!! God knows what they'll beat us by without him!!
I'll be hitting this line pretty hard

Good luck fellas

 

[gloveski]

year to date 4-5

Ess -21.5 (Rebound Factor)
Melb -12.5
Syd -14.5
Port -26.5
Rich -8.5

 

[Cartman88]

Friday Night result:

Essendon 122
Adelaide 81



Essendon held a comfortable lead for most of the game and always looked like they were going to cover the spread.

 

[MrChristo]

Just for the record, Cartman....

The game we disagree on is Richmond.

I've taken Richmond -7'.

Their record when travalling anywhere is superb, and although they are missing Richardson and Stafford, they got their season back on track in the last quarter last week, and I think they will be far too strong for the mistake ridden Dockers.

Weather not a factor....24 dg with last showers.

Good luck with all other selctions

 

[Cartman88]

Sat afternoon results:

Collingwood 104
Hawthorn 63

Melbourne 137
West Coast 103

 

[Cartman88]

Sat night results:

Sydney 103
Kangaroos 100



Sydney win but fail to cover the -14.5 spread. It was an amazing finish to this game. With only seconds remaining Sydney were 3 pts down and camped in the forward line when one of the Kangaroo players lost their cool and gave away a free kick to Daryn Cresswell. With the siren gone he kicked the winning goal from 35 metres out. This win will be a huge confidence boost for Sydney who are now 2-2 instead of 1-3.

Brisbane 94
Wstn Bdogs 78

Brisbane carried on their winning ways and now have 20 consecutive wins. It was a tough match though and the Wstn Bulldogs were right in it until the end. Brisbane face Geelong next week at the Gabba and on form they should win by at least 40 pts.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

What a ridiculous way to finish a good game of football. The umpire sees the retaliation and not the whole thing and then hands the game to Sydney with a dodgy free kick in the final seconds....
I'll cop blowing my dough when my team wins, but to do my money and have my team ripped off is just too much.

 

[Cartman88]

Sunday afternoon results:

Port Adelaide 148
Carlton 95



A topsy turvy game which was close at halftime but Port Adelaide blew Carlton away in the second half. There ability to pour on quick points is amazing and todays effort was given more merit considering captain Matthew Primus missed most of the match.

Geelong 166
St Kilda 44



Despite the injuries to St Kilda I still rated them a strong play today (although I did have second thoughts whether they were a 2 unit play). Geez did I get this one wrong. Geelong won by 122 points.

Fremantle 138
Richmond 72



Fremantle are a team I have always said were going to improve in 2002 and today they put up one of the best performances in the clubs history. They will gain plenty of confidence from this victory and it certainly won't be the last upset Fremantle produce this year.

 

[Cartman88]

Overall a good result going 5-2 on the AFL this weekend but unfortunately the 2 unit plays were the losing ones.

I can see some good potential in next weeks matches from a betting point of view. Back in a couple of days with some initial thoughts on Round 5.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Went 3-1 for the weekend.

Collingwood never really in doubt, Port worried me abit at halftime but blew Carlton off the park in the second half and Freo surprising me with the ease of victory over the Tigers.
Sydney was the shattering win for me, failing to cover and also stealing victory from my beloved Kangaroos I was thus forced to double dip on the Port line to chase back some cash even though its a no-no :nono:

Bloody umpires...my 'roos should be 4-0 !!.....it's true...it's true

Season to date 7-9

Bring on round 5......

 

[beast2]

Year to Date: 8-5

Three Easy Winners

Essendon defeated my team Adelaide comfortably. The cover was in little doubt when Essendon kicked 5 straight to 0 at the end of the 1st quarter.

Melbourne were always in control against West Coast but failed to put them away for good until the last quarter.

Port and Carlton were level at the half before Port kicked 7 to 0 to begin the third and were seemingly on the way to an easy victory before Carlton kicked the first three of the last to get within 18 points before Port went on to an easy 53 point win.

Also a great victory to Freo. I tipped them to win but never thought it would be so easy. My preseason prediction of a top 8 finish for Freo doesn't look too bad at the moment.

Craig

 

[MrChristo]

Nice call on Freo, Cartman.

Good job guys