Looks like there are a few appealing games this week. I might be one of those sucked in to taking port minus a goal against the cats. Carlton getting the points might be worth a nudge but it's hard to read how freo will come out after last weeks stellar perfomance! Brisbane being live dogs is something we haven't seen in a while and while the coasters have played well up here at the gabba in recent years, I may have a dabble on the lions bouncing back to some form in front of the home crowd. Like the pies as dogs to handle the dons on monday also.
AFL: Round 5
- Thread starter bombercoops
- Start date
Would you believe we're on completely the opposite side of all of those games, bomber!!
Brisbane being live dogs is something we haven't seen in a while and while the coasters have played well up here at the gabba in recent years, I may have a dabble on the lions bouncing back to some form in front of the home crowd.
No offense mate, but this is the very reason why West Coast are 1.80 for this game and not 1.50 like they should be!
Cartman said last week that Adelaide was the bet of the year so far, but I think West Coast takes the cake this week.
They are so far ahead of Brisbane in every stat there is it's rediculous. They've on the last 2 at the 'Gabba as HUGE 'dogs, and really should not have any problems at all getting over a Brisbane team who are a far cry from the Lions of previous years.
1.80 is a superb price, imo. Definately a play, but will hold, just to see what the line does.
Despite what the stats say, I think Freo -19.5 is a good play this week.
Just like how the game sets up. Carlton off a supposedly 'good' draw, and Freo off a horrible performance.
Freo have been very unlucky...close losses v. Saints and West Coast, and 3 late withdrawals last week, a virus through the club at a place they can't score anyway!
Carlton have played 5 games at Subi since 2002 and lost by 62, 47, 116, 28 and 28.
Freo have won their last 4 meetings by 48 (in Victoria), 47, 28 and 28.
Really think Adelaide are a good bet @ ~1.60.
And Essendon really have to be fav's with Rocca not in the team.
Essendon's big downfall this year has been in the ruck and clearances, but Collingwood are equally as bad in this department.
We saw how Collingwood really struggled to score without Rocca last week...Just can't see them kicking a big enough score to get away from Essendon.
The Bombers have won 8 of last 10 meetings, the 2 losses both coming in heavy, wet conditions.
Given a fine day, it's hard to see the Pies getting up in this one.
St. Kilda -20.5
One play in so far.
Doesn't really need much explaination does it? Tigers 3 crappy wins. Were dominated by both the Doggies and Hawthorn but escaped with ucky wins, then an undermanned Freo @ MCG. Big deal!
Saints won 9 of 10 @ the dome, av. win 53 points...Tiges, 2 of 10, av. loss 41 points.
Saints have won last 3 meetings by 44, 45 and 80 points.
Richmond's defense is still horrible...don't be fooled by the last 3 games playing Freo, who can't score in Melbourne, and two teams that both kicked horribly at goal.
St. Kilda have played outside twice (bad for them), v. Kanga's (who have been very good defensively), but finally broke out with 151 last week.
This one gets very, very nasty!
Good luck evreyone!
Brisbane being live dogs is something we haven't seen in a while and while the coasters have played well up here at the gabba in recent years, I may have a dabble on the lions bouncing back to some form in front of the home crowd.
No offense mate, but this is the very reason why West Coast are 1.80 for this game and not 1.50 like they should be!
Cartman said last week that Adelaide was the bet of the year so far, but I think West Coast takes the cake this week.
They are so far ahead of Brisbane in every stat there is it's rediculous. They've on the last 2 at the 'Gabba as HUGE 'dogs, and really should not have any problems at all getting over a Brisbane team who are a far cry from the Lions of previous years.
1.80 is a superb price, imo. Definately a play, but will hold, just to see what the line does.
Despite what the stats say, I think Freo -19.5 is a good play this week.
Just like how the game sets up. Carlton off a supposedly 'good' draw, and Freo off a horrible performance.
Freo have been very unlucky...close losses v. Saints and West Coast, and 3 late withdrawals last week, a virus through the club at a place they can't score anyway!
Carlton have played 5 games at Subi since 2002 and lost by 62, 47, 116, 28 and 28.
Freo have won their last 4 meetings by 48 (in Victoria), 47, 28 and 28.
Really think Adelaide are a good bet @ ~1.60.
And Essendon really have to be fav's with Rocca not in the team.
Essendon's big downfall this year has been in the ruck and clearances, but Collingwood are equally as bad in this department.
We saw how Collingwood really struggled to score without Rocca last week...Just can't see them kicking a big enough score to get away from Essendon.
The Bombers have won 8 of last 10 meetings, the 2 losses both coming in heavy, wet conditions.
Given a fine day, it's hard to see the Pies getting up in this one.
St. Kilda -20.5
One play in so far.
Doesn't really need much explaination does it? Tigers 3 crappy wins. Were dominated by both the Doggies and Hawthorn but escaped with ucky wins, then an undermanned Freo @ MCG. Big deal!
Saints won 9 of 10 @ the dome, av. win 53 points...Tiges, 2 of 10, av. loss 41 points.
Saints have won last 3 meetings by 44, 45 and 80 points.
Richmond's defense is still horrible...don't be fooled by the last 3 games playing Freo, who can't score in Melbourne, and two teams that both kicked horribly at goal.
St. Kilda have played outside twice (bad for them), v. Kanga's (who have been very good defensively), but finally broke out with 151 last week.
This one gets very, very nasty!
Good luck evreyone!
Year to date
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Match bets 7-9 (+1.36 units)
Exotic bets 0-2 (-1.50 units)
I agree with Bomber saying that Port Adelaide might be a sucker bet this week but the $1.75 is just too tempting for me despite their recent mixed form and injury/suspension concerns - like the fact they are at home for the 4th straight week and hard to ignore Geelong?s horrible interstate record having lost 17 out of their past 18.
Port Adelaide $1.75 vs Geelong (2 units)
I am still waiting for the Kangaroos to fall over but to their credit they keep finding a way to win ? Hawthorn will be boosted by their big win last week and I think Everitt/Mitchell could give them some edge in the middle - but I think the line is about right and I will stay clear of this one unless Hawthorn drift out by an extra 2-3 points.
I will leave the Fremantle vs Carlton match from a betting point of view ? wouldn?t be surprised if Freo win by 50 but they could just as easily lose the match ? for anyone liking Carlton +19.5 it may be worthwhile taking the points now as there is some rain forecast for Saturday which could see the line come in towards game time.
Sydney and Melbourne both looked vulnerable last week and both have some key missing players ? I rate Melbourne the better side but that is offset by the SCG ? bookies have this 50/50 and I tend to agree so no play.
Very impressed by Adelaide to date and they made all of us of some nice cash last week ? I do have a slight lean on them again this week but not quite enough to pull the trigger just yet ? will get interested if Adelaide get into -8.5 or better.
Brisbane vs West Coast has the makings of a great match - a desperate Brisbane side with Voss/Lappin back facing front runners West Coast who have won their last 2 at the Gabba and have the edge in all key areas including confidence ? hate betting against Brisbane but with West Coast at $1.90 with some books they represent strong value.
West Coast $1.90 vs Brisbane (1 unit)
St Kilda bounced back last week to something like their form of last year and it could be the start of a turnaround for them ? I expect them to kick another big score at Telstra Dome and will be way too classy for a Richmond side that have not faced top quality opposition in their 3 wins.
St Kilda -20.5 vs Richmond (2 units)
St Kilda to kick highest score in Rd 5 @ $4.50 (0.5 units)
The ANZAC day match should be interesting ? Collingwood suffering from numerous key injuries but have been competitive ? Essendon have a very strong recent record in these clashes but I will only consider backing them if they change the match to 3 quarters and revert to the Duckworth-Lewis system - so not likely to have a bet.
Good luck everyone !!!!
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Match bets 7-9 (+1.36 units)
Exotic bets 0-2 (-1.50 units)
I agree with Bomber saying that Port Adelaide might be a sucker bet this week but the $1.75 is just too tempting for me despite their recent mixed form and injury/suspension concerns - like the fact they are at home for the 4th straight week and hard to ignore Geelong?s horrible interstate record having lost 17 out of their past 18.
Port Adelaide $1.75 vs Geelong (2 units)
I am still waiting for the Kangaroos to fall over but to their credit they keep finding a way to win ? Hawthorn will be boosted by their big win last week and I think Everitt/Mitchell could give them some edge in the middle - but I think the line is about right and I will stay clear of this one unless Hawthorn drift out by an extra 2-3 points.
I will leave the Fremantle vs Carlton match from a betting point of view ? wouldn?t be surprised if Freo win by 50 but they could just as easily lose the match ? for anyone liking Carlton +19.5 it may be worthwhile taking the points now as there is some rain forecast for Saturday which could see the line come in towards game time.
Sydney and Melbourne both looked vulnerable last week and both have some key missing players ? I rate Melbourne the better side but that is offset by the SCG ? bookies have this 50/50 and I tend to agree so no play.
Very impressed by Adelaide to date and they made all of us of some nice cash last week ? I do have a slight lean on them again this week but not quite enough to pull the trigger just yet ? will get interested if Adelaide get into -8.5 or better.
Brisbane vs West Coast has the makings of a great match - a desperate Brisbane side with Voss/Lappin back facing front runners West Coast who have won their last 2 at the Gabba and have the edge in all key areas including confidence ? hate betting against Brisbane but with West Coast at $1.90 with some books they represent strong value.
West Coast $1.90 vs Brisbane (1 unit)
St Kilda bounced back last week to something like their form of last year and it could be the start of a turnaround for them ? I expect them to kick another big score at Telstra Dome and will be way too classy for a Richmond side that have not faced top quality opposition in their 3 wins.
St Kilda -20.5 vs Richmond (2 units)
St Kilda to kick highest score in Rd 5 @ $4.50 (0.5 units)
The ANZAC day match should be interesting ? Collingwood suffering from numerous key injuries but have been competitive ? Essendon have a very strong recent record in these clashes but I will only consider backing them if they change the match to 3 quarters and revert to the Duckworth-Lewis system - so not likely to have a bet.
Good luck everyone !!!!
Nice stats christo! You guys seem to be all over the coasters and with your stats supporting your 'pick' I'm going to stay away from this one and just enjoy it for the spectate it should be. Taking port with you cartman as surely they will find some form this week. Was leaning on the saints aswell as they seem to look the goods at -20ish. However, still think the pies get up based soley on how bad Essendon are at running out games. As much as i hate to say it, Rocca or no Rocca, the pies have enough in the midfield to make up for his absence by giving themselves enough opportunities in front of goal to win this one.
So far playing: Port -6.5, Saints -20.5 and maybe the pies.
I hate playing against stats christo and your homework on the freo/carlton game is doing enough at this stage to hold me back from taking the points. Especially considering they are coming off a trip to Adelaide.
So far playing: Port -6.5, Saints -20.5 and maybe the pies.
I hate playing against stats christo and your homework on the freo/carlton game is doing enough at this stage to hold me back from taking the points. Especially considering they are coming off a trip to Adelaide.
Port -7.5 d Geelong (4 Units)
I knew there would be an over reaction with Port's recent form in this line but I never expected it to be this good. I may be a sucker with this bet but I can not possibly pass it up and am loading up big on what I think could one of my biggest plays ever.
Will be back with more plays later.
Craig
I knew there would be an over reaction with Port's recent form in this line but I never expected it to be this good. I may be a sucker with this bet but I can not possibly pass it up and am loading up big on what I think could one of my biggest plays ever.
Will be back with more plays later.
Craig
Well it looks like we all got sucked in with Port. The bookmakers must be laughing at all the people who took Port in this one.
I more than anyone else thought they were a certainty to win this game with their home record and Geelongs away record. 1-4 after 5 rounds must be the worst start from a premiership team in a long time. I only heard the game on radio and just can't believe how bad Port are playing.
I think I jinxed this game as soon as I put such a large bet on Port. Hopefully the remainder of the weekend can turn out a little better.
Rest of Round 5
Kangaroos -12.5 d Hawthorn
Melbourne d Sydney
St Kilda -20.5 d Richmond (2 Units)
Craig
I more than anyone else thought they were a certainty to win this game with their home record and Geelongs away record. 1-4 after 5 rounds must be the worst start from a premiership team in a long time. I only heard the game on radio and just can't believe how bad Port are playing.
I think I jinxed this game as soon as I put such a large bet on Port. Hopefully the remainder of the weekend can turn out a little better.
Rest of Round 5
Kangaroos -12.5 d Hawthorn
Melbourne d Sydney
St Kilda -20.5 d Richmond (2 Units)
Craig
You stood on the tracks with a multi-unit play Beasty :nono:
Statistically you will get run down at least 65% of the time mate.
Geelong's backline was terific last night and it was always going to be a tight one.
You'll get it back with the Roos and the Saints.
I'm off to the 'G' to wind up some cocky Hawks supporters!!!
Statistically you will get run down at least 65% of the time mate.
Geelong's backline was terific last night and it was always going to be a tight one.
You'll get it back with the Roos and the Saints.
I'm off to the 'G' to wind up some cocky Hawks supporters!!!
I must not bet against the Express.
I must not bet against the Express.
I must not bet against the Express.
I must not bet against the Express.
The express is back this year at full steam and I will definitely have a double look if I ever dare go against it again.
Adding another play:
Carlton +20.5 d Fremantle
Craig
I must not bet against the Express.
I must not bet against the Express.
I must not bet against the Express.
The express is back this year at full steam and I will definitely have a double look if I ever dare go against it again.
Adding another play:
Carlton +20.5 d Fremantle
Craig
Adding 2 plays on the Sat night games - only slight leans on these but I was waiting to see if the lines moved the way I wanted and they have ....
Adelaide -8.5 @ $1.99 vs Wstn Bulldogs (1 unit) HAD TO EDIT THIS ONE AS I HAD POSTED ADELAIDE +8.5 INSTEAD OF -8.5
Melbourne @ $2.00 vs Sydney (1 unit)
Adelaide -8.5 @ $1.99 vs Wstn Bulldogs (1 unit) HAD TO EDIT THIS ONE AS I HAD POSTED ADELAIDE +8.5 INSTEAD OF -8.5
Melbourne @ $2.00 vs Sydney (1 unit)
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Nice hit on the blues beasty. It's funny how much of a difference a point or two can make. Yep, we all got sucked in to the port game as the express picked up speed. Nice job paw!
Just confirming West Coast (1.93) as a play.
What a fantastic effort by the Bully's last night! Very happy with the result....Just might have to insert some red stripes into that Blue and White scarf yet.
What a fantastic effort by the Bully's last night! Very happy with the result....Just might have to insert some red stripes into that Blue and White scarf yet.
Todays looks like a fairly even matchup and I think there is some value in taking the points - so adding one more play ....
Collingwood +7.5 vs Essendon
Collingwood +7.5 vs Essendon
Well, it would be safe to say that west coast was the right play! Congrats to you guys on em'. Happy to see the dons lift themselves from the bottom of the ladder today with a win and as a result of that, who would have thought that the lions would be sitting on the bottom of the ladder after 5 rounds!! Amazing how things turn around from year to year.
Paw, as a result of the material for your 'shirt' that I'm hand-piecing together costing too much $$, I'm going with a beanie and mits instead. Christo, I can always paint on the red stripes if need be so don't feel left out! BTW, is the Mrs. kicking your ass in the tipping again this year??
Paw, as a result of the material for your 'shirt' that I'm hand-piecing together costing too much $$, I'm going with a beanie and mits instead. Christo, I can always paint on the red stripes if need be so don't feel left out! BTW, is the Mrs. kicking your ass in the tipping again this year??
Na, mate. Up by 4 early...should have ben 5, but I was feeling generous and told her West Coast would beat the pants off Brisbane.
