AFL Round 5
- Thread starter pharlap
- Start date
Good luck pharlap...I think the Blues might just get up, but value gone now, would have loved to get some 2.30/2.25.
I think last weeks win says alot more about Brisbane than about the Tiges...Remember they did the same thing (win @ Brisbane) in rd. 9 last season, before winning just 3 more games (of 13) to finish 12th.
St. Kilda are playing very poorly right now, so I would take that "close" game with a grain of salt...
The other thing is refelcted in the stats so far...Richmond have had the fewest inside 50's in the comp. at just 44 p/game!...even had 2 less than Brisbane last week...
...They've also allowed the 3rd most, so their midfield just isn't getting their hands on the ball enough.
Yes, these are skewed somewhat by the decent teams they've played, but like I said, I think last weeks game tells us a lot more than the final score would suggest.
The Blues did win the round 18 clash last season by 35 points as pretty big underdogs (having lost 11 straight previously!)...
...If I see a 2.20 I might grab it. :shrug:
Fremantle +16.5
Both games last year were extremely tight?Freo won by 5 at home in rd. 21 and the Saints won by 1 point at this ground in rd. 2.
Although Freo haven?t won a game yet in 5 tries in Launceston, they have lost just 2 by more than 10 points?and St. Kilda are 2-4 this number here too. It?s a massive ground and really doesn?t invite big scores being kicked.
Fremantle were beaten by 22 points here in rd. 1 by Hawthorn, but only had 1 less shot and 3 less inside 50?s.
The Saints have been far from impressive so far, with just 2 wins over possibly the 2 worst teams in the comp, and their loss to Port last week really highlighted their ruck and defensive deficiencies.
Kositski was terrible and is likely out anyway, Gehrig still very ?? (likely out), as bad as Freo are, it?s hard to see them not at least keeping this one close, and really, it?s a game they should win.
I was going to be all over the Crows, but now with Ricciuto likely out (Eade thinks he will be, and who knows more about a team than the opposition?
), that leaves a HUGE hole in their scoring ability.
Some quick sums show that Roo, Burton and Perrie have combined for a massive 49.37% of the Crows score this season!!!
I do think they can limit the Doggies, and will certainly put on more pressure than Geelong did last week through the middle, but who will kick their goals??
Will wait for game day...Crows -7.5 if he plays...'under' just about anything if he doesn't.
Also originally liked Melbourne (just as an opinion), but then I looked at the stats!!...
Melbourne are av'ing a whopping 10 less inside 50's per game than their opp! Last week's win was incredibly "lucky" (well, relied on Sydney's lack of scoring)...they had 15 less inside 50's and 5 less shots!
Surprisingly (to me anyway!), the Kanga's had more inside 50's than both Geelong and West Coast, despite losing the games, because a) They struggle to score themselves, and b) Couldn't stop them from scoring. (Obviously!)
...but, Geelong and West Coast (and even Collingwood) are very strong defensive teams...only Sydney, St. Kilda and Adelaide allowed less shots at goal than these two teams last season...and only Adelaide were better defensively (Crows allowed a shot every 2.29 entries into 50, Geelong 2.07, WC 2.13)...
...so, being held to 21, 21 and 19 shots in the last 3 weeks insn't exactly surprising...but in week 1, against a poor Port team they kicked 19.14.
Melbourne have allowed at least 27 shots in all 4 games so far, and haven't topped 100 yet for the season, so I think the Kanga's could be a very live dog.
The only problem I see is that Melbourne won easily as 1.60 favs in Canberra last season, and 9 of the last 10 meetings have been won by the fav, so the books seem to have a pretty good handle on them both.
Anyway...will decide a bit later on...
Collingwood -10.5
Collingwood won by 31 last season here with no Rocca or Fraser, and Tredrea was on fire for Port with 10 marks, which won?t happen this week.
Also Wakelin is out of the Port line-up so they will really struggle to match-up on a tall Collingwood forward line.
Port have lost their last 4 regular season games at the Dome by 31, 56, 40 & 92....all as favs!!
Like Pawa tho, little bit concerned about the 5 day break, but really they are a FAR better side than the Power.
I think last weeks win says alot more about Brisbane than about the Tiges...Remember they did the same thing (win @ Brisbane) in rd. 9 last season, before winning just 3 more games (of 13) to finish 12th.
St. Kilda are playing very poorly right now, so I would take that "close" game with a grain of salt...
The other thing is refelcted in the stats so far...Richmond have had the fewest inside 50's in the comp. at just 44 p/game!...even had 2 less than Brisbane last week...
...They've also allowed the 3rd most, so their midfield just isn't getting their hands on the ball enough.
Yes, these are skewed somewhat by the decent teams they've played, but like I said, I think last weeks game tells us a lot more than the final score would suggest.
The Blues did win the round 18 clash last season by 35 points as pretty big underdogs (having lost 11 straight previously!)...
...If I see a 2.20 I might grab it. :shrug:
Fremantle +16.5
Both games last year were extremely tight?Freo won by 5 at home in rd. 21 and the Saints won by 1 point at this ground in rd. 2.
Although Freo haven?t won a game yet in 5 tries in Launceston, they have lost just 2 by more than 10 points?and St. Kilda are 2-4 this number here too. It?s a massive ground and really doesn?t invite big scores being kicked.
Fremantle were beaten by 22 points here in rd. 1 by Hawthorn, but only had 1 less shot and 3 less inside 50?s.
The Saints have been far from impressive so far, with just 2 wins over possibly the 2 worst teams in the comp, and their loss to Port last week really highlighted their ruck and defensive deficiencies.
Kositski was terrible and is likely out anyway, Gehrig still very ?? (likely out), as bad as Freo are, it?s hard to see them not at least keeping this one close, and really, it?s a game they should win.
I was going to be all over the Crows, but now with Ricciuto likely out (Eade thinks he will be, and who knows more about a team than the opposition?
), that leaves a HUGE hole in their scoring ability.Some quick sums show that Roo, Burton and Perrie have combined for a massive 49.37% of the Crows score this season!!!
I do think they can limit the Doggies, and will certainly put on more pressure than Geelong did last week through the middle, but who will kick their goals??
Will wait for game day...Crows -7.5 if he plays...'under' just about anything if he doesn't.
Also originally liked Melbourne (just as an opinion), but then I looked at the stats!!...
Melbourne are av'ing a whopping 10 less inside 50's per game than their opp! Last week's win was incredibly "lucky" (well, relied on Sydney's lack of scoring)...they had 15 less inside 50's and 5 less shots!
Surprisingly (to me anyway!), the Kanga's had more inside 50's than both Geelong and West Coast, despite losing the games, because a) They struggle to score themselves, and b) Couldn't stop them from scoring. (Obviously!)
...but, Geelong and West Coast (and even Collingwood) are very strong defensive teams...only Sydney, St. Kilda and Adelaide allowed less shots at goal than these two teams last season...and only Adelaide were better defensively (Crows allowed a shot every 2.29 entries into 50, Geelong 2.07, WC 2.13)...
...so, being held to 21, 21 and 19 shots in the last 3 weeks insn't exactly surprising...but in week 1, against a poor Port team they kicked 19.14.
Melbourne have allowed at least 27 shots in all 4 games so far, and haven't topped 100 yet for the season, so I think the Kanga's could be a very live dog.
The only problem I see is that Melbourne won easily as 1.60 favs in Canberra last season, and 9 of the last 10 meetings have been won by the fav, so the books seem to have a pretty good handle on them both.
Anyway...will decide a bit later on...
Collingwood -10.5
Collingwood won by 31 last season here with no Rocca or Fraser, and Tredrea was on fire for Port with 10 marks, which won?t happen this week.
Also Wakelin is out of the Port line-up so they will really struggle to match-up on a tall Collingwood forward line.
Port have lost their last 4 regular season games at the Dome by 31, 56, 40 & 92....all as favs!!
Like Pawa tho, little bit concerned about the 5 day break, but really they are a FAR better side than the Power.
Last edited:
I really think Collingwood is the play of the week.
I would have expected this line to be closer to -20.5
I would have expected this line to be closer to -20.5
Some news out of Adelaide is that Ricciuto is almost certain to mis, and Thompson is also in doubt!
(Neither trained today.)
...can I hear some faint, excited barking somehwere off in the distance...
...(Look up. The top of the ladder is pretty high)
(Neither trained today.)
...can I hear some faint, excited barking somehwere off in the distance...
...(Look up. The top of the ladder is pretty high
)
West Coast -18.5 at HT (1.87).
Brisbane are just about shot, but I prefer the HT bet herre with the smaller h'cap.
The Lions last 6 away games read;
Rd. 16, 2005. @ WC. Lost by 23...down by 35 at the half. ***
Rd. 18, 2005. @ Dogs (DOME). Lost by 28...34 down at HT.
Rd. 20, 2005. @ Sydney. Lost by 84...50 down at HT.
Rd. 22, 2005. @ St. Kilda (DOME). Lost by 139...59 down at HT
Rd. 1, 2006. @ Geelong. Lost by 77...46 down at HT.
Rd. 3, 2006. @ St. Kilda (DOME). Lost by 37...35 down at HT.
*** I watched a replay of this game yesterday and West Coast jumped out to a very early (1st quarter) 40 point lead, where the margin stayed for pretty much the rest of the game.
The 23 points is very deceiving, as Brisbane kicked the last 4 goals of the game in the last 8-9 minutes...It was 47 points with about 10 minutes to play.
Brisbane are living on reputation alone. They have a lot of young, inexperienced players, and the older players are all strugling for fitness and form.
I think West Coast will cover the game -39.5 easily enough, but just incase of a repeat, the HT line looks the safest option.
Full 180!!...
Western Bulldogs +10.5
News out of Adelaide today is that Ricciuto is almost certain to miss...and Thompson didn't train today either.
I did a quick add up of the Crows scores this season, and it turns out that Ricciuto, Burton and Perrie have kicked 49% of their total score so far!!!
Also, of the 16 goals that the Crows kicked on the Doggies last season at Adelaide, Burton kicked 3, Roo 1, Thompson 1. (Welsh 3 and Hudson 1 who are both out also)
It's a big hole!!
The Bulldogs have won 9 out of their last 10, and score 98+ in eachof those games...admittedly all of those games have been in Melbourne, and 8 at the Dome...but even so, scoring has never really been a problem at Adelaide. They have scored 86+ in 8 of the last 10 there, but allowed an av. of 126!!
The Doggies haven't allowed 100 yet this season (Av. 83), and with their injuries, it is tough to see the Crows scoring significantly in this game.
The Crows are just 5/5 this number at home in their last 10...inc. a 2 point loss to West Coast in rd. 2.
The Bulldogs have very similar attack and defense effeiciency to WC, but average nearly 7 more inside 50's per game than their opp, compared to West Coast's 1.
I just don't see Adealide scoring enough to really punish the Dogs here.
Either a close game, or a Dogs win for me.
Brisbane are just about shot, but I prefer the HT bet herre with the smaller h'cap.
The Lions last 6 away games read;
Rd. 16, 2005. @ WC. Lost by 23...down by 35 at the half. ***
Rd. 18, 2005. @ Dogs (DOME). Lost by 28...34 down at HT.
Rd. 20, 2005. @ Sydney. Lost by 84...50 down at HT.
Rd. 22, 2005. @ St. Kilda (DOME). Lost by 139...59 down at HT
Rd. 1, 2006. @ Geelong. Lost by 77...46 down at HT.
Rd. 3, 2006. @ St. Kilda (DOME). Lost by 37...35 down at HT.
*** I watched a replay of this game yesterday and West Coast jumped out to a very early (1st quarter) 40 point lead, where the margin stayed for pretty much the rest of the game.
The 23 points is very deceiving, as Brisbane kicked the last 4 goals of the game in the last 8-9 minutes...It was 47 points with about 10 minutes to play.
Brisbane are living on reputation alone. They have a lot of young, inexperienced players, and the older players are all strugling for fitness and form.
I think West Coast will cover the game -39.5 easily enough, but just incase of a repeat, the HT line looks the safest option.
Full 180!!...
Western Bulldogs +10.5
News out of Adelaide today is that Ricciuto is almost certain to miss...and Thompson didn't train today either.
I did a quick add up of the Crows scores this season, and it turns out that Ricciuto, Burton and Perrie have kicked 49% of their total score so far!!!
Also, of the 16 goals that the Crows kicked on the Doggies last season at Adelaide, Burton kicked 3, Roo 1, Thompson 1. (Welsh 3 and Hudson 1 who are both out also)
It's a big hole!!
The Bulldogs have won 9 out of their last 10, and score 98+ in eachof those games...admittedly all of those games have been in Melbourne, and 8 at the Dome...but even so, scoring has never really been a problem at Adelaide. They have scored 86+ in 8 of the last 10 there, but allowed an av. of 126!!
The Doggies haven't allowed 100 yet this season (Av. 83), and with their injuries, it is tough to see the Crows scoring significantly in this game.
The Crows are just 5/5 this number at home in their last 10...inc. a 2 point loss to West Coast in rd. 2.
The Bulldogs have very similar attack and defense effeiciency to WC, but average nearly 7 more inside 50's per game than their opp, compared to West Coast's 1.
I just don't see Adealide scoring enough to really punish the Dogs here.
Either a close game, or a Dogs win for me.
Wow...Carlton into 1.95!...That 2.30 early in the week wold be looking nice about now! :cursin:
Found the Kangas for 2.40, so will take that I think. They seem to be shortening fairly well at most Australian books.
Come on Pawa...where's the faith??!!
Found the Kangas for 2.40, so will take that I think. They seem to be shortening fairly well at most Australian books.
Come on Pawa...where's the faith??!!
MrChristo said:Come on Pawa...where's the faith??!!
No faith here brother!!!....we are in a world of pain right now!! :sadwave:
Round 5 Saturday Play
Kangaroos +7.5 d Melbourne
Don't like the look of the Crows at all this week. Injuries are killing us at the moment. Can't bring myself bet on Bulldogs because this is a home game.
I like Geelong and West Coast but neither enough for a bet at the lines.
Craig
Kangaroos +7.5 d Melbourne
Don't like the look of the Crows at all this week. Injuries are killing us at the moment. Can't bring myself bet on Bulldogs because this is a home game.
I like Geelong and West Coast but neither enough for a bet at the lines.
Craig
Round 5 Sunday Play
Collingwood -12.5 d Port
Just scraped in with a win yesterday with the Kangaroos just covering the margin.
As for the crows I could not believe what we did to the Bulldogs. It was amazing the way we completely dominated them with so many players out. The young kids who came in all played well and to have 14 different goalkickers was crazy.
Craig
Collingwood -12.5 d Port
Just scraped in with a win yesterday with the Kangaroos just covering the margin.
As for the crows I could not believe what we did to the Bulldogs. It was amazing the way we completely dominated them with so many players out. The young kids who came in all played well and to have 14 different goalkickers was crazy.
Craig
