AFL Round 7
- Thread starter pharlap
- Start date
Why so keen on the Demons Pharlap? :mj03:
Freo are the form side here and thay have a better record at the "G" over recent times. Pavlich is on fire atm too....
Good luck with it.....I just would have thought there'd be some easier games this week.
Freo are the form side here and thay have a better record at the "G" over recent times. Pavlich is on fire atm too....
Good luck with it.....I just would have thought there'd be some easier games this week.
Fairly oblique reasons really. I prefer to keep the exact reasoning to myself as it isnt really something that is easily explained (if I can really explain it at all!!!). Like any game ATS, you can make a good argument for either side. Thats what ATS betting is all about I suppose.
Good luck with your plays.
Good luck with your plays.
haven't made a decision one way or the other but the fact that freo would have had a tough physical encounter with west coast coming off a 6day break from the st kilda match in tassie, add in the emotional/mental fall out from the draw game turned win or freo (vs st kilda) & now having to travel to melbourne to play the demons..
guess i was thinking freo may drained just enough to tip in favour of the demons perhaps? demons not too shabby presently.
who knows, freo may stratagize play to avoid injury if the demons come out hard early with intent? the whole season performance outweighs an away game that will have more significance to the demons.
looking at the money line though, but likely will wait until in-play...
guess i was thinking freo may drained just enough to tip in favour of the demons perhaps? demons not too shabby presently.
who knows, freo may stratagize play to avoid injury if the demons come out hard early with intent? the whole season performance outweighs an away game that will have more significance to the demons.
looking at the money line though, but likely will wait until in-play...
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I agree that Freo are the play Pawa...I wanted +6.5, but I still think they win.
Not too sure how the Derby affects either team the week after...might go back and have a look through the last few years just to make sure.
Other than that, I think the Dogs keep it close, if not win at Port.
We have been out-played by 2 of the best midfields in the AFL...hello Port!...who have the least inside 50's in the comp!
Also Brisbane, but I don't think I'll get 1.80 now (should have jumped earlier). Croad and Crawford out. I talked up the Hawks D last week, but forgot about young Zac Dawson (erm, I mean, I forgot what a quality tall big Thommo is... ).
Realistically, he has only played on 2 BIG forwards this year, Rocca and Thompson...both with horrible results!
Bad news for him is tht they don't get much bigger than Jonny Brown! (or even Brawshaw if they went that way).
Not too sure how the Derby affects either team the week after...might go back and have a look through the last few years just to make sure.
Other than that, I think the Dogs keep it close, if not win at Port.
We have been out-played by 2 of the best midfields in the AFL...hello Port!...who have the least inside 50's in the comp!
Also Brisbane, but I don't think I'll get 1.80 now (should have jumped earlier). Croad and Crawford out. I talked up the Hawks D last week, but forgot about young Zac Dawson (erm, I mean, I forgot what a quality tall big Thommo is...
).Realistically, he has only played on 2 BIG forwards this year, Rocca and Thompson...both with horrible results!
Bad news for him is tht they don't get much bigger than Jonny Brown! (or even Brawshaw if they went that way).
Fremantle +6.5
Hopefully there won't be an Freo letdown after the dramas of the last 2 weeks, but I think the Dockers are the better side here.
The MCG is no concern...they have beaten Melbourne here on their last 2 meetings...they've also won 6 of their last 8 at the ground.
Melbourne have won just one single game in their last 10 by more than 6 points!
Freo midfield is much stronger, and I don't think their backline can hold Pavlich and co.
Bulldogs +12.5
Two decent losses in the last 2 weeks, but against two of the top 3 midfields in the AFL. (Adelaide and St. Kilda)
Port Adelaide have the WORST midfield (statistically of course), having the fewest inside 50's (44.6 per game...-11 compared to their opp!), so I doubt very much whether they can apply the pressure the Dogs have seen over the last couple of weeks.
The Bulldogs record isn't good at Adelaide, but Port are really struggling atm, losing 5 of their last 7 at home...one of those wins by just 4 points.
I think the Dogs will have a much easier time of it this week and shuld be able to at least keep it close, if not win.
Brisbane -4.5
Croad and Crawford both out for the Hawks leaves a big hole...and Jacobs is 50/50 apparently with a sore back.
I think Brisbane will cause the Hawks backline some serious match-up problems with Brown and Bradshaw. Zac Dawson has faced 2 big, strong forwards and had bags kicked on him both times (Rocca and Thompson).
I know the Lions are on the downhill slide, but really this Hawthorn team will be the worst they have faced all season.
Should be to strong.
Crows (~1.40)
Not sure if they will cover the spread, but a very likely win indeed to the Crows who are a FAR beter outfit than the Kangaroos.
Grest odds imo.
Hopefully there won't be an Freo letdown after the dramas of the last 2 weeks, but I think the Dockers are the better side here.
The MCG is no concern...they have beaten Melbourne here on their last 2 meetings...they've also won 6 of their last 8 at the ground.
Melbourne have won just one single game in their last 10 by more than 6 points!
Freo midfield is much stronger, and I don't think their backline can hold Pavlich and co.
Bulldogs +12.5
Two decent losses in the last 2 weeks, but against two of the top 3 midfields in the AFL. (Adelaide and St. Kilda)
Port Adelaide have the WORST midfield (statistically of course), having the fewest inside 50's (44.6 per game...-11 compared to their opp!), so I doubt very much whether they can apply the pressure the Dogs have seen over the last couple of weeks.
The Bulldogs record isn't good at Adelaide, but Port are really struggling atm, losing 5 of their last 7 at home...one of those wins by just 4 points.
I think the Dogs will have a much easier time of it this week and shuld be able to at least keep it close, if not win.
Brisbane -4.5
Croad and Crawford both out for the Hawks leaves a big hole...and Jacobs is 50/50 apparently with a sore back.
I think Brisbane will cause the Hawks backline some serious match-up problems with Brown and Bradshaw. Zac Dawson has faced 2 big, strong forwards and had bags kicked on him both times (Rocca and Thompson).
I know the Lions are on the downhill slide, but really this Hawthorn team will be the worst they have faced all season.
Should be to strong.
Crows (~1.40)
Not sure if they will cover the spread, but a very likely win indeed to the Crows who are a FAR beter outfit than the Kangaroos.
Grest odds imo.
Joining you on the lions 'C' and will probably head to the game on saturday night. A couple of hefty losses to the hawkers as you pointed out and if Brisbane are to win any game sometime soon, you would think this would be the one.
Smashing the coasters on the ML against the pies over in the west also. Think the boys bounce back strongly after the tight loss at home to arch rival freo last week. Has to have been quite some time now since they dropped two succesive games at home and I can't see that being the case this weekend.
Smashing the coasters on the ML against the pies over in the west also. Think the boys bounce back strongly after the tight loss at home to arch rival freo last week. Has to have been quite some time now since they dropped two succesive games at home and I can't see that being the case this weekend.
Geelong v. St. Kilda under 181 (2.90)
[182-202 (3.10 as a saver]
Much higher total than I had expected...and a much better price than I'd hoped!
Seems that many (like me last week!) still doubt the Saints backline, but their record at the Dome is outstanding, allowing just 75 ppg in their last 10 game there.
After a strong start at home, Geelong have failed to top 100 in their last 4, scoring 49, 97, 85 & 81.
The Saints have topped 100 just twice this season, both against 2 poor defensive teams (Port and Brisbane)...and only then with very straight kicking. (18.10 and 19.10), and with Harley back in the Geelong team I think it will be a pretty tight game.
[182-202 (3.10 as a saver]
Much higher total than I had expected...and a much better price than I'd hoped!
Seems that many (like me last week!) still doubt the Saints backline, but their record at the Dome is outstanding, allowing just 75 ppg in their last 10 game there.
After a strong start at home, Geelong have failed to top 100 in their last 4, scoring 49, 97, 85 & 81.
The Saints have topped 100 just twice this season, both against 2 poor defensive teams (Port and Brisbane)...and only then with very straight kicking. (18.10 and 19.10), and with Harley back in the Geelong team I think it will be a pretty tight game.
Round 7 Play
Freo +5.5 d Melbourne
Freo are playing good football to beat both West Coast and St Kilda. Melbourne on the other hand have been extremely lucky with three wins by under a goal. Had luck not been on their side we could easily be talking about a different match here. Add Freos recent record against Melbourne and the play looks strong.
Craig
Freo +5.5 d Melbourne
Freo are playing good football to beat both West Coast and St Kilda. Melbourne on the other hand have been extremely lucky with three wins by under a goal. Had luck not been on their side we could easily be talking about a different match here. Add Freos recent record against Melbourne and the play looks strong.
Craig
pharlap said:
Melbourne 117
Fremantle 58
Easy win for the improving Demons.
YTD 8-3 (+6.7 units)
(cheers Pawa)
Taking Adelaide Over 15.5 v my Kangaroos today @ $1.75.
Crows too good at both ends of the ground and should win by 25+......it could even get very ugly!!
Crows too good at both ends of the ground and should win by 25+......it could even get very ugly!!
Well I was hoping it wouldn't get THAT ugly!!!!!
:mj07:
My Roos are a joke......but at least they aren't on the bottom.......ay Bomber?!!! :142smilie
You're awfully quiet there mate!!
:nono: :sadwave:
:mj07:
My Roos are a joke......but at least they aren't on the bottom.......ay Bomber?!!! :142smilie
You're awfully quiet there mate!!
:nono: :sadwave:
Funny guy huh! Yep, we are a phukin' mess at the moment and I can't believe that I actually felt we would beat the blues yesterday. You guys are not too far behind tho mate and it should be a ripper of a clash in a few weeks time. lol! Will have to fly down for it ay!
Christo, dogs looking the best they have since 97' mate. I'm sure you're a happy man atm after the big win across enemy lines.
Christo, dogs looking the best they have since 97' mate. I'm sure you're a happy man atm after the big win across enemy lines.
