Here goes for Round 8 of the AFL. Once again I am posting my plays early as I am working later in the week. As always you may want to shop around because better prices may be available.
Friday May 18 at MCG 7:40pm AEST
Richmond $1.25 (-25.5) vs Adelaide $3.75 (+25.5)
No Play
Richmond are starting quite short at $1.25 and probably deserve to given their strong 5-2 start to the season. In their matches prior to last weeks beating by Essendon they had won only against the Kangaroos West Coast & Collingwood so their form is perhaps not as strong as everyone thinks. Richmond are boosted by the return of Torney & Rogers, but the question is how much will last weeks big loss affect their confidence. Adelaide have won 3 of their last 4 matches, with their only loss being a competitive game against Hawthorn. They will really miss Robran in their defensive line if he does not play. Richmond traditionally dominate this matchup, and whilst I expect that to continue I think Adelaide will make it interesting. I reckon the bookies have the line about right here so no play on this one.
Saturday May 19 at Manuka Oval Canberra 1:40pm AEST
Kangaroos $1.90 (pk) vs St Kilda $1.90 (pk)
No Play
It has been a disappointing start to the year for the Kangaroos, but they have started to show patches of form in the past 2 matches. Wayne Carey is still not 100% fit but is starting to become a factor. St Kilda have played ok the past 3 weeks including a nice win against Sydney and a close loss to Hawthorn. It is also Nathan Burkes 300th and they will be keen to do the job for him. The game is being played in Canberra which is a neutral ground, and I really can?t see that much difference between the 2 teams. With both paying under $2.00 at present, I can?t see any value here.
Saturday May 19 at Optus Oval 2:10pm AEST
Carlton $1.60 (-11.5) Brisbane $2.30 (+11.5)
Playing Brisbane +11.5
Carltons form has been inconsistent this year with their record reading WLWLWLW. Except for their win over Essendon in Round 3, they are not playing as well as 1999 and 2000. However I would not be surprised if they start putting it all together in the coming weeks. Brisbane I do rate highly but they are not playing as well as they can. They have won their past 3 matches against what I consider weak opposition but winning form can help build confidence within the team. They do have Power and Scott back for this week, but unfortunately Leppitsch is still out. This looks like a close game to me, and the only reason Brisbane are paying $2.30 is because of their poor record in Melbourne (although they did win at this ground in 1999). I think Brisbane are well worth a bet ATS, but would just prefer if they could shift the GABBA to Melbourne for the weekend !!
Saturday May 19 at MCG 2:10pm AEST
Hawthorn $1.13 (-41.5) vs West Coast $5.75 (+41.5)
No Play
Hawthorn are the only undefeated side remaining in the AFL and it is very hard to see an injury plagued West Coast side changing that. Hawthorn just keep doing the job but I?m sure deep down they are already starting to focus on Essendon in Round 9. I can see Hawthorn winning this game comfortably. However they will want to leave something in reserve for the following week, so they may not play as hard in the last part of the game if they are well ahead. Not a great game to bet on in my opinion.
Saturday May 19 at Footy Park 7:40pm AEST
Port Adelaide $1.25 (-25.5) vs Collingwood $3.75 (+25.5)
No Play
Port Adelaide continue to impress hammering West Coast in WA last week. They have only lost one game all season (Ansett Cup included) and they are winning by some big margins. Their loss was against Essendon and they showed some fight in that game. Collingwood are going better than their 3-4 record suggests as they have had a tough draw to date. Their losses were all very close mathces against the Kangaroos (2 pts) Essendon (8 pts) Richmond (15 pts) and Hawthorn (4 pts). The close loss last week may harm their confidence. With Port Adelaide winning by big scores and Collingwood losing by close scores this is a tough one to work out so I am going to leave it alone.
Sunday May 20 at MCG 2:10pm AEST
Melbourne $6.00 (+42.5) vs Essendon $1.12 (-42.5)
No Play
This is a replay of last years Grand Final. Melbourne are presently 4-3 for the season but have not looked very impressive to me. Their 4 wins have been against weaker sides Adelaide Sydney Fremantle and Geelong. They are struggling with injuries with Ward Collins and Walsh all in doubt and still no Farmer. Essendon on the other hand are starting to look like a champion side again and winning with authority. It seems they will be without Mercuri and Alessio but they have enough depth to fill the gaps. Essendon will win this game and probably win it easily, but I don?t see great value with a 42.5 line.
Sunday May 20 at SCG 2:10pm AEST
Wstn Bulldogs $1.70 (-6.5) vs Sydney $2.15 (+6.5)
Playing Wstn Bulldogs ?6.5
This is a home game for Wstn Bulldogs and they have agreed to play it at the SCG. Wstn Bulldogs will gain plenty of confidence from the win over Melbourne and are further boosted by the return of Libba and Curley. They are a good side who I think are about to hit their straps. I have been betting against Sydney for the past few weeks and they have done job for me losing their last 4 matches. Sydney will probably lose Cresswell this week and with no Kelly their midfield is weakened. They are also lacking lacking firepower in the goalkicking dept and rely too heavily on Goodes and O?Loughlin. I am slightly disappointed with the price for Wstn Bulldogs but regardless think they are a strong bet.
Sunday May 20 at Subiaco 4:10pm AEST
Fremantle $1.70 (-6.5) vs Geelong $2.15 (+6.5)
Playing Fremantle ?6.5
Never thought I would see the day when I was backing an 0-7 team starting as favourite but Fremantle are going better than their record suggests. In last weeks thread I listed each game they had played and it shows they have been fairly competitive in all their matches this year. Unfortunately they have often fallen away in the 4th quarter. Geelong have looked ordinary losing their past 5 matches and they are not helped by the loss of Burns and Riccardi this week. I am going for Fremantle to score their first win of the year and wouldn?t be surprised if they do it in style.
Summary of Plays
Brisbane +11.5
Wstn Bulldogs ?6.5
Fremantle ?6.5
If you want to be more conservative you may prefer to take the $1.70 straight up for Wstn Bulldogs and Fremantle.
Good luck to everyone.
Friday May 18 at MCG 7:40pm AEST
Richmond $1.25 (-25.5) vs Adelaide $3.75 (+25.5)
No Play
Richmond are starting quite short at $1.25 and probably deserve to given their strong 5-2 start to the season. In their matches prior to last weeks beating by Essendon they had won only against the Kangaroos West Coast & Collingwood so their form is perhaps not as strong as everyone thinks. Richmond are boosted by the return of Torney & Rogers, but the question is how much will last weeks big loss affect their confidence. Adelaide have won 3 of their last 4 matches, with their only loss being a competitive game against Hawthorn. They will really miss Robran in their defensive line if he does not play. Richmond traditionally dominate this matchup, and whilst I expect that to continue I think Adelaide will make it interesting. I reckon the bookies have the line about right here so no play on this one.
Saturday May 19 at Manuka Oval Canberra 1:40pm AEST
Kangaroos $1.90 (pk) vs St Kilda $1.90 (pk)
No Play
It has been a disappointing start to the year for the Kangaroos, but they have started to show patches of form in the past 2 matches. Wayne Carey is still not 100% fit but is starting to become a factor. St Kilda have played ok the past 3 weeks including a nice win against Sydney and a close loss to Hawthorn. It is also Nathan Burkes 300th and they will be keen to do the job for him. The game is being played in Canberra which is a neutral ground, and I really can?t see that much difference between the 2 teams. With both paying under $2.00 at present, I can?t see any value here.
Saturday May 19 at Optus Oval 2:10pm AEST
Carlton $1.60 (-11.5) Brisbane $2.30 (+11.5)
Playing Brisbane +11.5
Carltons form has been inconsistent this year with their record reading WLWLWLW. Except for their win over Essendon in Round 3, they are not playing as well as 1999 and 2000. However I would not be surprised if they start putting it all together in the coming weeks. Brisbane I do rate highly but they are not playing as well as they can. They have won their past 3 matches against what I consider weak opposition but winning form can help build confidence within the team. They do have Power and Scott back for this week, but unfortunately Leppitsch is still out. This looks like a close game to me, and the only reason Brisbane are paying $2.30 is because of their poor record in Melbourne (although they did win at this ground in 1999). I think Brisbane are well worth a bet ATS, but would just prefer if they could shift the GABBA to Melbourne for the weekend !!
Saturday May 19 at MCG 2:10pm AEST
Hawthorn $1.13 (-41.5) vs West Coast $5.75 (+41.5)
No Play
Hawthorn are the only undefeated side remaining in the AFL and it is very hard to see an injury plagued West Coast side changing that. Hawthorn just keep doing the job but I?m sure deep down they are already starting to focus on Essendon in Round 9. I can see Hawthorn winning this game comfortably. However they will want to leave something in reserve for the following week, so they may not play as hard in the last part of the game if they are well ahead. Not a great game to bet on in my opinion.
Saturday May 19 at Footy Park 7:40pm AEST
Port Adelaide $1.25 (-25.5) vs Collingwood $3.75 (+25.5)
No Play
Port Adelaide continue to impress hammering West Coast in WA last week. They have only lost one game all season (Ansett Cup included) and they are winning by some big margins. Their loss was against Essendon and they showed some fight in that game. Collingwood are going better than their 3-4 record suggests as they have had a tough draw to date. Their losses were all very close mathces against the Kangaroos (2 pts) Essendon (8 pts) Richmond (15 pts) and Hawthorn (4 pts). The close loss last week may harm their confidence. With Port Adelaide winning by big scores and Collingwood losing by close scores this is a tough one to work out so I am going to leave it alone.
Sunday May 20 at MCG 2:10pm AEST
Melbourne $6.00 (+42.5) vs Essendon $1.12 (-42.5)
No Play
This is a replay of last years Grand Final. Melbourne are presently 4-3 for the season but have not looked very impressive to me. Their 4 wins have been against weaker sides Adelaide Sydney Fremantle and Geelong. They are struggling with injuries with Ward Collins and Walsh all in doubt and still no Farmer. Essendon on the other hand are starting to look like a champion side again and winning with authority. It seems they will be without Mercuri and Alessio but they have enough depth to fill the gaps. Essendon will win this game and probably win it easily, but I don?t see great value with a 42.5 line.
Sunday May 20 at SCG 2:10pm AEST
Wstn Bulldogs $1.70 (-6.5) vs Sydney $2.15 (+6.5)
Playing Wstn Bulldogs ?6.5
This is a home game for Wstn Bulldogs and they have agreed to play it at the SCG. Wstn Bulldogs will gain plenty of confidence from the win over Melbourne and are further boosted by the return of Libba and Curley. They are a good side who I think are about to hit their straps. I have been betting against Sydney for the past few weeks and they have done job for me losing their last 4 matches. Sydney will probably lose Cresswell this week and with no Kelly their midfield is weakened. They are also lacking lacking firepower in the goalkicking dept and rely too heavily on Goodes and O?Loughlin. I am slightly disappointed with the price for Wstn Bulldogs but regardless think they are a strong bet.
Sunday May 20 at Subiaco 4:10pm AEST
Fremantle $1.70 (-6.5) vs Geelong $2.15 (+6.5)
Playing Fremantle ?6.5
Never thought I would see the day when I was backing an 0-7 team starting as favourite but Fremantle are going better than their record suggests. In last weeks thread I listed each game they had played and it shows they have been fairly competitive in all their matches this year. Unfortunately they have often fallen away in the 4th quarter. Geelong have looked ordinary losing their past 5 matches and they are not helped by the loss of Burns and Riccardi this week. I am going for Fremantle to score their first win of the year and wouldn?t be surprised if they do it in style.
Summary of Plays
Brisbane +11.5
Wstn Bulldogs ?6.5
Fremantle ?6.5
If you want to be more conservative you may prefer to take the $1.70 straight up for Wstn Bulldogs and Fremantle.
Good luck to everyone.
