AFL Round 8
- Thread starter pharlap
- Start date
Good luck pharlap...bit close to call that one for me, but Rocca looks to be out, and the trip back from the West does tend to hurt...
Adelaide -36.5
The Crows have won the last 3 meetings by 70, 52 & 75, 2 of which (the biggest 2 as it happens!) were at the dome....and it seems that indoors is where the Crows play some of their best football.
They have topped 100 in their last 6 games (going back to 2005) at an av. of 115 ppg.
On the other hand, in 3 games there this season, Richmond have scored 52, 77 and 66!...and it doesn't figure to improve this week against one of the tighest midfields and best defense in the AFL.
Adelaide allow just 41 inside 50's per game (best), have 12 more entries per game than their opp (best), and allow just 70 points per game (also best!)
To make things even worst, Richmond have the worst defense in the AFL, allowing 119 ppg, and a shot at goal every 1.77 entries into their 50.
Adelaide have had at least 25 shots at goal in every game except the loss to West Coast, so I really do expect this to be another thumping loss for the Tiges...
...(unless Wallace plays 'safe' and puts on the biggest flood yet seen, which I wouldn't put passed him...either way, I can't see how Richmond kick more than 8-9 goals, and the Crows have the skills and patience to still kick a score)
Kangaroos +24.5
Fremantle just don't win by big enough margins to deserve this kind of spread. Even in games they 'dominate', they still usually manage to let their opp back into the game at some stage.
Only one win in their last 10 games (5 wins) has been by more, and that was at Port this season, who are just about the worst team in the comp, by 31.
The midfields are incredibly close (amazingly the Kangaroos have both allowed and gained exactly 350 inside 50's...50 for and against per game!)...Freo get and allow 49 per game...so with the evenness in the middle it's hard to see how Freo are 4 goals better off at either end.
The Kangaroos have allowed a couple of big scores, but only due to some very straight kicking by Geelong (22.6), Adelaide (18.8), with only really Collingwood dominating them.
The Kangaroos have wonthe last 2 meetings at Subi by 17 and 22 points, both a decent under-dogs, and I think people are taking last weeks belting a bit too seriously, as a lot of teams will get thrashed by the Crows!
Not sure they can win, but think it will be close either way.
Brisbane +13.5
All this talk about Brisbane being on the downward slide, but it's amazing how closely this season has mirrored 2005 for them!
Beaten by Richmond and Sydney at home...Belted by St. Kilda in Melbourne. Beat Hawthorn easily at home...beat Essendon at home!!...
...They went to Port last year and lost by 2 points in a thriller in Rd. 2 (remembering of course that they were last on just one win after rd 5.)...also Tredrea kicked 5 that game which won't happen again.
I said last week that Port have the worst midfield in the AFL...they now average 10 less inside 50's per game than their opp! They've allowed the second most points in the comp.
I think Brisbane are better than their record suggests after playing a pretty tough opening schedule, and as I said earlier, I can't see how the worst team in the AFL is favoured by more than 2 goals.
Sydney -9.5
No coincidence that the Bulldogs two losses this season have come against two of the best midfields.
Adelaide (best, +11.5 inside 50's per game!), St. Kilda (4th, +4)...now they play Sydney who have the second best (+10).
Teams with the stronger midfield can obviously get it and move it forward, but more importantly in the Bulldogs case, they can pressure their opp and limit their forward thrusts...and this is shown in the Bulldogs scoring.
They average 134.4 ppg in their 5 wins, but scored just 55 and 78 in the two losses.
At Sydney last year they scored just 76 points...they lost that game by just 13 points, but you'd have to say that Sydney's attack has been much more potent this season having at least 27 shots at goal in their last 4 games.
Tough game for the Dogs after traveling 2 weeks in a row, and I think the Swans will be too good for them here.
Adelaide -36.5
The Crows have won the last 3 meetings by 70, 52 & 75, 2 of which (the biggest 2 as it happens!) were at the dome....and it seems that indoors is where the Crows play some of their best football.
They have topped 100 in their last 6 games (going back to 2005) at an av. of 115 ppg.
On the other hand, in 3 games there this season, Richmond have scored 52, 77 and 66!...and it doesn't figure to improve this week against one of the tighest midfields and best defense in the AFL.
Adelaide allow just 41 inside 50's per game (best), have 12 more entries per game than their opp (best), and allow just 70 points per game (also best!)
To make things even worst, Richmond have the worst defense in the AFL, allowing 119 ppg, and a shot at goal every 1.77 entries into their 50.
Adelaide have had at least 25 shots at goal in every game except the loss to West Coast, so I really do expect this to be another thumping loss for the Tiges...
...(unless Wallace plays 'safe' and puts on the biggest flood yet seen, which I wouldn't put passed him...either way, I can't see how Richmond kick more than 8-9 goals, and the Crows have the skills and patience to still kick a score)
Kangaroos +24.5
Fremantle just don't win by big enough margins to deserve this kind of spread. Even in games they 'dominate', they still usually manage to let their opp back into the game at some stage.
Only one win in their last 10 games (5 wins) has been by more, and that was at Port this season, who are just about the worst team in the comp, by 31.
The midfields are incredibly close (amazingly the Kangaroos have both allowed and gained exactly 350 inside 50's...50 for and against per game!)...Freo get and allow 49 per game...so with the evenness in the middle it's hard to see how Freo are 4 goals better off at either end.
The Kangaroos have allowed a couple of big scores, but only due to some very straight kicking by Geelong (22.6), Adelaide (18.8), with only really Collingwood dominating them.
The Kangaroos have wonthe last 2 meetings at Subi by 17 and 22 points, both a decent under-dogs, and I think people are taking last weeks belting a bit too seriously, as a lot of teams will get thrashed by the Crows!
Not sure they can win, but think it will be close either way.
Brisbane +13.5
All this talk about Brisbane being on the downward slide, but it's amazing how closely this season has mirrored 2005 for them!
Beaten by Richmond and Sydney at home...Belted by St. Kilda in Melbourne. Beat Hawthorn easily at home...beat Essendon at home!!...
...They went to Port last year and lost by 2 points in a thriller in Rd. 2 (remembering of course that they were last on just one win after rd 5.)...also Tredrea kicked 5 that game which won't happen again.
I said last week that Port have the worst midfield in the AFL...they now average 10 less inside 50's per game than their opp! They've allowed the second most points in the comp.
I think Brisbane are better than their record suggests after playing a pretty tough opening schedule, and as I said earlier, I can't see how the worst team in the AFL is favoured by more than 2 goals.
Sydney -9.5
No coincidence that the Bulldogs two losses this season have come against two of the best midfields.
Adelaide (best, +11.5 inside 50's per game!), St. Kilda (4th, +4)...now they play Sydney who have the second best (+10).
Teams with the stronger midfield can obviously get it and move it forward, but more importantly in the Bulldogs case, they can pressure their opp and limit their forward thrusts...and this is shown in the Bulldogs scoring.
They average 134.4 ppg in their 5 wins, but scored just 55 and 78 in the two losses.
At Sydney last year they scored just 76 points...they lost that game by just 13 points, but you'd have to say that Sydney's attack has been much more potent this season having at least 27 shots at goal in their last 4 games.
Tough game for the Dogs after traveling 2 weeks in a row, and I think the Swans will be too good for them here.
Round 8 Play
Adelaide -38.5 (2 Units)
Adelaide are playing great football at the moment and should have no problem accounting for Richmond by a large margin. If Sydney beat them by 118 and Adelaide have won previous 3 against Richmond by around 10 goals and they are now a better team then they must cover this margin.
Craig
Adelaide -38.5 (2 Units)
Adelaide are playing great football at the moment and should have no problem accounting for Richmond by a large margin. If Sydney beat them by 118 and Adelaide have won previous 3 against Richmond by around 10 goals and they are now a better team then they must cover this margin.
Craig
pharlap said:
If I had known Geelong were going to put their under 10 girls team on the field I may have reconsidered my investment.
COllingwood by plenty.
YTD 8-4 (+5.6 units)
