AFL Round 9
- Thread starter pharlap
- Start date
Sydney -22.5
Just a big difference in class here. Hawthorn stocks have risen slightly due to Croad back (will he really play though??), but still Sydney have way too much for them all over the ground.
The Hawks 4 wins have come against poor teams and/or poor situations...actaully interesting to note that in their 4 wins they have held the opp to under 100 (av. 71.75) and in their losses they have allowed an av. of 115.75.
Sydney are on fire, scoring freely and winning by decent margins. They won both meetings last season by 63 (home) and 54 at the MCG,and I can't see them having too much trouble handling the Hawks again here.
Essendon -10.5
Will keep fading the rock bottom Port, who give a soft spread here due to Essendon having just 1 win...but they have been very competative against some good teams.
Port, on the other hand, are going from one disaster to another. They have the worst ranked midfield in the AFL, and will now be without Chad Cornes, Peter Burgoine and Kingsley.
Thay have allowed the most points in the comp (allow 30 shots a game!) which will be welcome news to Essendon who have struggled to kick a decent score without Lloyd and Hird.
Port have lost 5 of their last 6 at the dome, by an av. of 52 points, and they won last year's meeting at AAMI by just 19 points as 1.36 fav...Hird didn't play, Lloyd kicked just 1, and Tredrea kicked 5 (which won't happen this weekend with him barely 50% fit and really struggling).
Can't see any reason not to keep opposing a Port who have lost 6 games by more than 5 goals.
West Coast -20.5
I think Melbourne are being over-rated after 2 big wins, but one against Freo who were on a big let down after beating West Coast, and gave up after 1/4 time, and the other v. a terrible (and depleted) Hawthorn, who gave up as well!
West Coast have had 2 tightish wins, but neither game was a close as the score suggested.
They won by 14 v. Collingwood, but had 16 more inside 50's and 9 more shots...won by 21 v. Esseendon, but had 12 more inside 50's and 11 more shots, so both wins could well have been by a lot more.
Just a big difference in class here. Hawthorn stocks have risen slightly due to Croad back (will he really play though??), but still Sydney have way too much for them all over the ground.
The Hawks 4 wins have come against poor teams and/or poor situations...actaully interesting to note that in their 4 wins they have held the opp to under 100 (av. 71.75) and in their losses they have allowed an av. of 115.75.
Sydney are on fire, scoring freely and winning by decent margins. They won both meetings last season by 63 (home) and 54 at the MCG,and I can't see them having too much trouble handling the Hawks again here.
Essendon -10.5
Will keep fading the rock bottom Port, who give a soft spread here due to Essendon having just 1 win...but they have been very competative against some good teams.
Port, on the other hand, are going from one disaster to another. They have the worst ranked midfield in the AFL, and will now be without Chad Cornes, Peter Burgoine and Kingsley.
Thay have allowed the most points in the comp (allow 30 shots a game!) which will be welcome news to Essendon who have struggled to kick a decent score without Lloyd and Hird.
Port have lost 5 of their last 6 at the dome, by an av. of 52 points, and they won last year's meeting at AAMI by just 19 points as 1.36 fav...Hird didn't play, Lloyd kicked just 1, and Tredrea kicked 5 (which won't happen this weekend with him barely 50% fit and really struggling).
Can't see any reason not to keep opposing a Port who have lost 6 games by more than 5 goals.
West Coast -20.5
I think Melbourne are being over-rated after 2 big wins, but one against Freo who were on a big let down after beating West Coast, and gave up after 1/4 time, and the other v. a terrible (and depleted) Hawthorn, who gave up as well!
West Coast have had 2 tightish wins, but neither game was a close as the score suggested.
They won by 14 v. Collingwood, but had 16 more inside 50's and 9 more shots...won by 21 v. Esseendon, but had 12 more inside 50's and 11 more shots, so both wins could well have been by a lot more.
yes taking the sydney swans but not as brave as christo & pharlap, settling for the money line.
will hedge out(betting@breaks) if needed @globalsportsbet.com.au (sorry dont know if can mention this)
interesting that the bombers have come in from avg 1.60 (tuesday) to 1.50
will hedge out(betting@breaks) if needed @globalsportsbet.com.au (sorry dont know if can mention this)
interesting that the bombers have come in from avg 1.60 (tuesday) to 1.50
St. Kilda v. Kangaroos under 185.5 (1.90 Betfair)
Great odds imo. Last years game 193 was scored, but both teams scoring is well down on last season.
Saints D in the dome is great, allowing just 74 ppg over their last 4, and the Kanga's have only topped 87 twice, both against bad teams (Hawthorn and Port)...they haven't allowed more than 26 shots in their last 5 either, so decent defence and some slow play should see this one be a relatively low scorer too.
Brisbane v. Freo over 192 (2.45)
(171-191 as a saver)
Freo's scoring has been down, but their last 5 have been against 3 top defensive teams, they gave up in Melbourne, and the Kanga's slow game plan last week...but they should get back to some scoring today v. a reasonably poor defensive Brisbane, who are allowing a shot every 1.87 entries into their 50. (3rd worst, behind Port and Richmond).
It should be a fast, free flowing game, so good chance of the over hitting, and almost no chance of it being under 172 I wouldn't think.
Great odds imo. Last years game 193 was scored, but both teams scoring is well down on last season.
Saints D in the dome is great, allowing just 74 ppg over their last 4, and the Kanga's have only topped 87 twice, both against bad teams (Hawthorn and Port)...they haven't allowed more than 26 shots in their last 5 either, so decent defence and some slow play should see this one be a relatively low scorer too.
Brisbane v. Freo over 192 (2.45)
(171-191 as a saver)
Freo's scoring has been down, but their last 5 have been against 3 top defensive teams, they gave up in Melbourne, and the Kanga's slow game plan last week...but they should get back to some scoring today v. a reasonably poor defensive Brisbane, who are allowing a shot every 1.87 entries into their 50. (3rd worst, behind Port and Richmond).
It should be a fast, free flowing game, so good chance of the over hitting, and almost no chance of it being under 172 I wouldn't think.
congrats christo on the totals!
seems like your walking to the bank on totals this year?
:walk:
glad we all got up on the swans
seems like your walking to the bank on totals this year?
:walk:
glad we all got up on the swans
