Afl Round One: Any Thoughts?

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

here's the sched:

Anders, you gotta help me with the order for home team and visitor again.....??? LOL is the home team the first team that's listed???? dammit!!!




just wanted to start this thread early to get some thoughts and ideas from anyone that's gonna be in the HARDCORE AFL GROUP this 2002 season...!!!!


ROUND 1

THURSDAY MARCH 28
Richmond v Collingwood Melbourne Cricket Ground 7:45 PM

SATURDAY MARCH 30
St Kilda v Carlton Colonial Stadium 2:10 PM

Geelong v Essendon Melbourne Cricket Ground 7:10 PM

Port Adelaide v Kangaroos Football Park 7:40 PM

SUNDAY MARCH 31
Sydney v Brisbane Lions Sydney Cricket Ground 1:10 PM

Western Bulldogs v Adelaide Colonial Stadium 2:10 PM

West Coast v Fremantle Subiaco 3:40 PM

MONDAY APRIL 1
Hawthorn v Melbourne Melbourne Cricket Ground 2:10 PM

 

[Cartman88]

TV,

Welcome back for the new AFL season.

You are right that the home teams are listed first although it is important to note that many clubs share the same city and/or home ground (especially in Melbourne) and therefore the home ground advantage at times may not be a big factor.

Here are where the various clubs are based.

Adelaide:
Adelaide Crows
Port Adelaide Power

Brisbane:
Brisbane Lions

Melbourne:
Carlton Blues
Collingwood Magpies
Essendon Bombers
Geelong Cats
Hawthorn Hawks
Melbourne Demons
North Melbourne Kangaroos
Richmond Tigers
St Kilda Saints
Wstn Bulldogs

Sydney:
Sydney Swans

Wstn Australia:
Fremantle Dockers
West Coast Eagles

I haven't had a decent look at the Week One games yet but historically the first few rounds tends to produce plenty of upsets so I will be looking for some value ML plays.

The opening markets should be out around Tuesday.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

thanks for the reply, Cartman88!!!

:toast:

 

[gloveski]

Roll on Round 1

Word of warning leave the Kangaroos vs Port game alone!
With all the happening of the last few days with carey anything could happen in this game.

 

[Cartman88]

The opening odds from the Qld TAB for Round 1. These are generally fairly weak lines but give a good indication of what the lines will be.

There is one bet that I am really keen on but will wait until the teams are finalised before I post the play.

Richmond $1.33
Collingwood $3.00

St Kilda $2.90
Carlton $1.35

Geelong $3.50
Essendon $1.25

Port Adelaide $1.18
Kangaroos $4.25

Sydney $2.10
Brisbane $1.65

Western Bulldogs $1.85
Adelaide $1.85

West Coast $1.80
Fremantle $1.90

Hawthorn $1.20
Melbourne $4.00

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

thanks Cartman88

likin some of those lines....

 

[MrChristo]

Centrebet prices up too now...Not much different.

Just guessing at what the lines might be, there will be 3 games I'll be all over

And Cartman I KNOW one of them is one you're thinking of.....And it's one we don't need to wait for a points line

Bring it on!

 

[PAWAQATSI]

ahhh.......the time is almost upon us...

AFL Season '02 !!! You beauty!!

Yes guys there are a couple of juicy prices on offer and I'll be all over them like flies on a poo-poo platter!!

For now just a note on the disappearing home ground advantage. With a lot of Melbourne based teams sharing grounds such as the M.C.G and Colonial Stadium and most teams coming to terms with the inter-state travel, the once feared home ground advantage is becoming a thing of the past.
In 1997 - 66% of winning teams played at home
In 1998 - 63%
In 1999 - 58%
In 2000 - 56%
And by 2001 the figure was an incredible 50%

So in the past where it held significant relevance when placing down your hard earned, now I feel it is less important. In fact I think it can be something to use in our favour as it still means something to the books. Plenty of bargains will be there for the taking during the season on "road dogs"(as the yanks love to call 'em).

Anyway...I'll be back before Sundays games (where I think the best action is to be had) with my choice plays!!

 

[Cartman88]

PAWAQATSI,

Some interesting stats you have posted on the progressive decline in home field advantage. Even with many Melbourne based teams sharing their home ground it is very surprising to see a 50/50 split across all games played in 2001.

I think the bookies have made some changes to reflect the above but there will certainly be some juicy road dogs (especially in the ealry rounds when the form is traditionally topsy turvy).

 

[Cartman88]

I'll be back tomorrow with some thoughts on the Thu night game which is Richmond vs Collingwood.

 

[Cartman88]

The first game of the AFL season is less than 24 hours away and it is tough to hold in the excitement ??

Game 1:

Richmond vs Collingwood

I have been looking forward to this game for some time as based on my views of the two teams involved I was expecting some nice value.

Quite simply I feel that Richmond are slightly over-rated this season and I feel that Collingwood are slightly under-rated this season.

Richmond did finish 2nd in the pre-season comp but were not that impressive. The key as always will be the tall forward line featuring Richardson and Ottens and the return of Gasper is a big boost for their defence.

Collingwood have had a quiet pre-season and will come in fresh. Traditionally they are very good starters to the season and will be pleased to have most of their players available after injuries looked set to impact them. They will be without Molloy who is still a fortnight away from returning to the paddock.

There is plenty of unknowns to this matchup and I am going against the public opinion. Collingwood to cover the spread and quite possibly to produce an upset.

Playing:

Collingwood +22.5 @ $1.90 (2 units)
Collingwood ML @ $3.00 (1 unit)

 

[Cartman88]

I also see that they are expecting of crowd of around 85,000 to the season opener.

 

[MrChristo]

Seems our Madjack tips are off to a bad start!!!

Yes, Richmond are slightly over-rated, but Collingwood

I see lines-men are expecting a close first round.....Can't agree.

Will be VERY surprised if ALL fav's don't win well and cover.

The 2 best bets of the week are definately Carlton -18.5 and Hawthorn -23.5.
St.Kilda lost Capuano tonight at training with a shoulder leaving them with Trent Noble to ruck basically on his own, and Melbourne..well...The less said the better

Some big differences in lines....Essendon -24.5 @ Canbet, -28.5 Olympic.
Brisbane -10.5 Olympic, -6.5 Canbet

 

[Cartman88]

Richmond 155
Collingwood 118

Disappointing start to the season. Richmond were quite dominant and whilst Collingwood were covering the spread with a few minutes left they let the game get away.

I think there is some good value in a few of the remaining games and will be back later with some more plays.

 

[MrChristo]

Cartman88

Cartman88

When I said our tips are off to a bad start, I didn't mean the result, I meant the fact that we didn't agree.

I just 'read' it for the first time,and it sounds a bit demeaning :nono:

Not how it was intended.

Lets get some winners with 7 games left!

I really like Adelaide 1.95
Hawthorn -23.5 and Carlton -18.5.

Those will be my weekend plays.....Good luck all

 

[Cartman88]

No problem MrChristo.

 

[Cartman88]

Here are my AFL plays for the rest of the weekend:

Carlton -18.5 @ $1.90 (1 unit)
Essendon -24.5 @ $1.90 (1.5 units)
Brisbane -6.5 @ $1.90 (1 unit)
Fremantle ML @ $1.95 (2 units)
Hawthorn -23.5 @ $1.90 (1 unit)

Good luck to everyone.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Here's my plays for round one AFL action:

Carlton -21.5
Brisbane -8.5
Fremantle +2.5

And my "poo-poo platter" play of the round is:
Adelaide Get all over this one!!


*note* If my Kangaroos can keep within 5 goals of Port I'll be very happy!!

 

[Cartman88]

Very poor start to the AFL regular season for me.

I kept reiterating that topsy/turvy results could be expected and three big upsets did occur with St Kilda ($3.25) Kangaroos ($4.75) & Melbourne ($4.00) all winning. Unfortunately I just wasn't on the right games.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Round 1 AFL Wrap-up

Round 1 AFL Wrap-up

A bit of a rough start to the AFL Season with some real dogs getting home. Who could have seen St. Kilda, Melbourne and the Kangaroos (yea-hah!!) getting the points?!!
Geez...I expect Carlton to finish outside the top 8 but would have thought the Saints to be no match for them first up!! Perhaps the Blues are even worse than I first suspected.

Season to date: 2-2

Bring on Round 2....