AFL system week #19

[PAWAQATSI]

Season to date: 16 - 13 @ 55.1% --- Bank = 52.8%
(pure system 13 - 9 @ 59%)
Just the one eligible selection from the Express this week.

Saturday at Subiaco we have the two best teams fighting it out for top on the ladder and the upper hand going into the finals. West Coast were embarrassed by Geelong away last week and will enjoy the return to Subiaco. The Eagles have won their last 21 home games against "interstaters" going back to early '04. An amazing record. But this visiting Adelaide team is on a mission and with the headstart have a good chance to run the Eagles close to the line in a tough low scoring defensive affair. A preview of this years Grand Final.

Adelaide +18.5 versus West Coast Eagles

20% on the Crows in a cliffhanger!!

:burnout :burnout :burnout

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Line has drifted in my favour a couple hours before gametime. Might just be the difference in the end.

 

[InSpades]

I need to wait closer to game time when playing the underdog. I keep getting bad lines. I am stuck with +14.5. At least I got (+102) for the vig.

IS

 

[PAWAQATSI]

:hail

Adelaide 82 defeated

West Coast Eagles 72 :spotting:

Well this could just about be the best system pick this season. To point at a team and suggest they could go and threaten a two year home winning streak is quite amazing. I'm proud of this one!!!

Today's game will now guarantee Adelaide well deserved Premiership favouritism. They will be hard to stop from here.

Season to date: 17 - 13 @ 56.6% --- Bank = 62.8%

 

[bombercoops]

Nice hit mate!

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Well that's it for another season of AFL systems. Another "tragedy of circumstances".

Where I started this year with an infusion of two systems....the standard "Express" system that I have been running for years and the new "Hybrid" for the 'tribet' that had tracked well throughout the last 8 years. You may remember that I scrapped the under-performing 'hybrid' halfway through the season when it was 4 - 4 and had cost me 48% of my bankroll to that point. Well since that time it has gone 10 - 1 and would have ended back in the black by now. It finished up 14 - 5 @ 73.6% :cursin:

If I had just rolled all year on pure "Express" plays the ledger would have ended up 14 - 9 @ 60.8% (acceptable by historical standards)
Add to this my attempts to protect my shrinking bankroll mid-season by only playing 10% instead of 20% and you have a wasted season of AFL betting.

I don't want to go back and work out "what could have been" if I'd stayed on the path that I set for myself each season, but I'd hazzard a guess that the bankroll should be around 150%....which I would have been happy with.

I'll go back and wade through the numbers in the off-season and see whether the "hybrid" is worth persevering with next year.

Needless to say that the "Pawamech Express" will be rolling out again next season with what I hope will be even better numbers.

PAWA