AFL Systems week #10

[PAWAQATSI]

Running late so will slam it down fast

One 'hybrid' found in the 5 games in this split round of AFL.

Geelong over 15.5pts versus Brisbane @ $1.20

Seems like a 'no brainer' with both teams heading in different directions. Expected wet weather may give us a scare though.

Usual 15% thrown down. Now let's quietly roll her out.......:burnout

 

[MrChristo]

I took a combination of Kangas under 24.5 and Crows under 24.5, for effectively 1.83.

I can't split them!
Last 5...Crows 49 I50's for, 49 against...Kangas 52 for, 51 against.
Clearances, Kangas +1, Crows -1
Scoring, Crows every 1.95 entry, Kangas 1.91
Defense Kangas 1.96, Crows 2.10...advantage Crows...

Actually, Crows rate better away from home this season so far...they play a far freer game style, av. 52 I50's and 51 against...don't score so well, but also play tougher D (2.25)
Basically, the stats say that Adelaide warrant slight favouritism...But my numbers show no more than 14 points in it either way, so yeah...the under 15.5 @ 3.10ish does look a solid bet.

Take out the last 2 meetings where the Crows have been big favs, the previous 3 results were 7, 10 & 13 points...
...but I took the safe option given the results so far this year.

ALL (bar the West Coast game) of the Kangaroos games this year have been decided by 24 points or less!!! (but only 2 under 15!)
8 of the Crows games have stayed within 4 goals. (just 3 under 15)

So a combined 18/22 games involving these teams this season have been results under 24.5 points!!!
Books can barely split them...I'll take that 1.83 thanks.


Don't think you have much to worry about @ Geelong, PAWA!!
...I'll be looking at an 'under', but really with no Power, Black hobbling, there's no reason why Geelong won't smash them.
Big spread but -42.5 looks VERY coverable! :shrug:

 

[sardius]

:clap: Great job guys.
Yeah, Cats will win this one, probably by 3-4 goals :mj03:
Brisbane +41? look very tempting.
Good luck!!!

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Geelong 85 smash Brisbane 35

Mech = 4 - 8 @ 33.3%.......Hybrid = 7 - 3 @ 70%.......Overall >> 11 - 11 @ 50%

Bankroll @ 68.6%

Cats inaccuracy in front of goal early did scare me but when they straightened up it got ugly.

Hybrid sits at 7 - 3. The 7 wins have all covered the number. Probably time to just take the spread on these. Memory tells me it hasn't always been this way. Certainly not every year anyways. Really wish my old hard drive hadn't fried itself!!

Something I'll ponder for a while. :mj03:


Only 3 games next week to complete this split round but there is another system pick amongst 'em.

Will cut it loose in a few days.

 

[MrChristo]

I'll take WC -15.5 for $1000 thanks Alex...er, Pawa!! :mj07:

fwiw, I think the other 2 games are going the way of the 'dog

 

[kickserv]

good ole down under football.....ya gotta love it :SIB


especially when the ref does that cool thing with both hands....best gesture in sports :00hour

 

[PAWAQATSI]

West Coast Eagles over 15.5pts versus St.Kilda @ $1.20

No rocket science there! :grins:

The question now is do I take the line instead? The Saints are in disarray. -35.5 over there is spot on in my book.

Will lay 7.5% on the -15.5 tri-bet and the other 7.5% on the line. Will cop the $1.55 average if the line covers.....or the minor loss if it doesn't.

Now let's quietly roll this one out.......:burnout



Yes Kick......our umpires certainly prefer to brag about length....than to do that girly "I surrender" gesture after a touchdown!! :s8:




:142lmao:

 

[InSpades]

Pawa..

Any idea what the Hybrid record against the regular spread was last year?

IS

 

[MrChristo]

Richmond +14.5

Overall, the numbers of these teams are pretty similar...BOTH teams av'ing 46 I50's per game, Richmond allowing 54, Melbourne 55...
...you'd think that would have changes recently?...well, yes...in Richmond's favour!
The last 5 show Richmond with a semi-respectable 46-51...Melbourne blown out to 46-57!!
Even in last week's win they had 9 less entries than Collingwood...but poor effciency up forward cost the 'Pies...more to the point when O'Brien went down they had no-one to cover Robertson.
The other factor is in the ruck. Richmond have been god-awful in the ruck, but surprisingly, Melbourne have been almost as bad...47-89 effective hitouts for the year...16-48 in their last 5!!! (Richmond 18-41)
As I mentioned earlier, I50's identical...efficiency almost the same...both score about the same (obviously!)...the slight advantage to Melbourne in defense (1.85 to 1.71 overall, and 1.89 to 1.69 in the last 5)...but can a Melbourne forward line minus Nietz take advantage?
Melbourne won in a stinker last year by 18 points...but had 4 less I50's...they managed to hold Richmond to a score just every 2.88 entries, which you'd have to suggest is very unlikely this season.

Melbourne are every bit as bad as Richmond, and I think the price has a bit of "Carlton" about it...2 wins, and suddenly they are a good team??!!
Nope.
Better than Richmond? Maybe....more than 2 goals better? ... can't see it.


Collingwood +15.5

A look at Sydney results so far...
Wins v. WC here (yeah, not bad I guess...but WC have since been poor away from home a lot!)
...Richmond, Brisbane, Melbourne, Port and Doggies...

As I mentioned last week, in the win over Hawthorn, they were statistically smashed...in fact in the last 5 games, Collingwood +4 I50's, Sydney -1...
...now this has to be tempered somewhat by Collingwood's draw too...last 5 have been Carlton, Dogs, Freo, Brisbane, Melbourne...

...but head-to-heads show a good match-up for the 'Pies. Last 4 at this venue have been 2-2, with Sydney wins by just 6 and 1, and a Collingwood win last year by 13 as 2.40 'dogs...
...in fact the av margin between these teams in their last 9 meetings is just 12 ppg!!
Would love Clement to play...can Wakelin, Maxwell and (likely) Cox do the job?...
...the way the Sydney forwards are playing, I'd have to think they might.
Again, in what looks like a very even game, nearly 3 goals will be huge...

 

[MrChristo]

WC allow a super impressive 41 I50's a game at home!!...at an even more impressive 2.34 for about 60 ppg!
Saints strong defensively, allow about 45 I50's pg, but can't score!!
Outside the Dome they av just 44 I50s @ 2.23 (57 ppg!!)...last 5 almost the same (depsite playing 3 of those indoors!!!!)

I think this one pans out like the Melbourne game...Saints simply won't have the ball/forward power to score but I wouldn't think the Eagles could score aswell as they did that day.

Eagles win for sure...-34ish could be close...a score of 100-60 looks about right...
...make of that what you will! :SIB

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Spademan

Don't know exactly how it compared last year because of my hard drive melt down mid season. Lost virtually every bit of research I've ever done.
I do however, remember commenting on how they did seem to be covering the number most times when covering the tribet (-15.5). Someone else, Hawkeye perhaps, did back up the observation at the time.
When I created the hybrid, I was looking & hoping for just that conclusion....but over the 10+ years history there would be seasons on either side of 60% success rate. A few years there were really bad at around 40% if I recall. Covering the 15.5 proved to be the way.

Perhaps last season and this season is purely 'a spike' on the graph & once I start playing the split on both.....'ol Murphy and his law will come and give me a kicking! :shrug:

Never been keen on giving over 30 start on AFL and the Eagles are giving the Saints 34.5 so not the best of weeks to start splitting my bet in my opinion! But I will test it out and see how it goes. I just got $1.22 for the Eagles tribet and the line is dropping as I type. Money coming for the Saints as the showers are forecast for Sunday.

Caveat emptor my friends :nono:

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Agree with Collingwood plus points C.

Will certainly have the magpies in my multi with the +24 option.

GL brother :toast:

 

[InSpades]

Perhaps last season and this season is purely 'a spike' on the graph & once I start playing the split on both.....'ol Murphy and his law will come and give me a kicking! :shrug:

Systems can pull the rug from under a bettor at anytime. Unfortunatley, I can't get the 15.5 lines, so I will have to stick to the moneylines for the hybrid.

IS

 

[PAWAQATSI]

St.Kilda 99 defeated West Coast 76 :com:

Pretty much one of the upsets of the year!! Absolutely unbelievable :shrug:

Mech = 4 - 8 @ 33.3%.......Hybrid = 7 - 4 @ 63.6%.......Overall >> 11 - 12 @ 47.8%

Bankroll @ 56.8%

This is starting to look like a c..nt of a season :s2: