AFL Systems week #3

[PAWAQATSI]

Mech = 1 - 2 @ 33%.......Hybrid = 1 - 0 @ 100%.......Overall >> 2 - 2 @ 50%

Bankroll @ 86%


Two Hybrids for this week.

First up on Saturday night...
Sydney Over 15.5pts versus Melbourne @ $1.25
Can the Swans do the right thing this week?!! Both system losses have been at their hands. Surely not a third friggin time?!! :shrug:

Second one is played on Sunday down at Skilled Stadium when my Roos travel down to take on the Cats.
Geelong Over 15.5pts versus Kangaroos @ $1.55
System says my boys will struggle!

Let's ROLL....:slomo

 

[genosays]

Thanks for posting your AFL selections, won some nice coin with your picks last year and will be looking for more this season.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Sydney 109 smack Melbourne 60 dance2

Swans finally do the right thing.


Onto the Cats tomorrow...



No probs geno.....get your fill mate.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Kangaroos 118 defeated Geelong 102 :com:

Bitter sweet victory when your own team costs ya a couple grand. Damn them!!

Bankroll took a 10% hit and its a wasted week.

Mech = 1 - 2 @ 33%.......Hybrid = 2 - 1 @ 66%.......Overall >> 3 - 3 @ 50%

Bankroll @ 76%


This slow start to the season is annoying me. Time to get on a run.

On to next week....

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Pawa:

1) Why do some of the books have that -15.5 line you mention? Anything special about the 15.5?

2) Good luck on your bets. I know you study your stuff, and your track record is strong. Man, you bet aggressively. Far be it for me to give you advice. I know you've made good $ on here in the past.

Thx for posting!

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Chucky...

Thanks for the support mate.

I have only seen Australian books offer the "tri-bet" option on Aussie rules football. That being that there are three possible outcomes in this betting catagory.
1) Home team to win by 15.5pts or more
2) Either team can win by up to 15pts
3) Away team to win by 15.5pts or more

A goal in Aussie rules is worth 6 pts & a 'miss' or 'behind' within range on either side of the goal posts is worth 1pt. Therefore the 15.5pts represents a 2 & a 1/2 goal range. The average winning margin in the AFL would be around the 24pt mark.

My historical data suggests that 'Hybrid' selections will win and win well but not necessarily cover the spread, which is generally high due to the fact that the majority are heavy faves. All I am doing is adding some value to short faves to boost the return. Typically turning a $1.28 > into $1.52, $1.39 into > $1.85 or say $1.66 > $2.12 when you bet that the team will cover a standard -15.5 spread or "win well" by basically more than 2+1/2 goals.

'Hybrids' went 14 - 5 in 2005 & 20 - 6 in 2006

Yes I do attack this aggressively but that is only because I have the historical data to support my theory. The numbers are incredibly strong and it is founded on such a logical base.

I could play them small for 2-3% and make some nice pocket money but I figure why funk around? Go hard and aim towards a minimum double the bankroll at 200%. History shows it will achieve this in a poor season, hit 300% in a good season (last year it finished @ 328% after a peak of 380 odd% betting @ 10% clip)....and its capable of 400% when it pulls a great season out which is every few years.

Very sound foundation gives me confidence. I dont want to buy a new plasma at the end of each season......I want to be changing cars at the end of each season!

Now some will mistake this for big-headed cockiness &/or arrogance :nono: ....but history does repeat and I will be there to cash in when it happens. :yup

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Nice, Pawa.

Your research and confidence is merited.

Continued success, old chap. Hey, where do u live? Close to Melbourne?

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Yeah Chucky, I live in Melbourne