The first 'dead' week of the season. No eligible system selections for this round of AFL action.
Time to regroup and come out punching next week!!
:box2:
Time to regroup and come out punching next week!!
:box2:
AFL Systems week #8
- Thread starter PAWAQATSI
- Start date
Well, PAWA...
...here's what I thought about the week...
...maybbe someone can gather something out of this mess! :SIB
I've been very tempted to take Freo +15.5...but only if Clement doesn't play (which I now think he will)...
...Just not sure how Collingwood stop Pav and Taz without him...
...but either way, the stats are interesting reading...Both teams reasonably bad at clearances and contested ball, so no advantage either way in the wet...
...but it hasn't hurt COllingwood at all. Last 5 games they av. -6 clearances a game, but +7 I50's!
Still, I don't think they can give more than 2 goals.
head to heads is also interesting...Freo by 15 as +18.5 'dogs last year at MCG...with remarkably similar road stats to this season.
In fact Freo won 8 of last 10 ats...so they do match up well.
You can't fault Freo's MCG record...won 7 of last 9 there! 2 over COlilngwood, and Melbourne this season.
Still not totally convinced about the 'Pies...beaten Kanga's in the luckiest win ever! Richmond, Ess, Carlton, Brisbane...the win @ Adelaide is the stand out, but Essendon did that too, so how well are the Crows going atm??
Of course, Freo's form line doesn't read much (any?!) better.
Really tough game to judge. Might tip Freo purely for the tipping value...but hard to be convinced either way.
(Good luck Jeffers!)
Crows win (1.47) for me. All Melbourne's "close" 3 weeks (out of 4) have done is made the Crows closer to 1.50 than 1.20 here!
Last week's result was purely due to Kangaroos bad conversion. 42-56 I50's, 25-36 clearances, 6 less shots...
So here we have the team that enters 50 the least (Melbourne) @ just 44 times a game!!...up against the team with the best defense (Adelaide) allowing a goal every 4.66 entries!!
Melbuorne haven't had more than 26 shots all year as it is...Crows allow just 23...very tough to see them cracking 70 points here...***
...other end, they have allowed 29 shots in all but 2 games (av. 31)..and while the Crows are hardly a team to set you alight, they have (quietly?) had 30, 29, 30 shots in their last 3.
Crows have won 6 out of last 7 meetings, and their only game this year at the 'G.
Can't trust them to kick a big enough score to cover a spread, but the win looks very likely.
Kanga's +25.5. Simply, despite all the show, WC have won just 3 games by more than this so far...Freo, Carlton, Melbourne!
They absolutely choked melbourne 2 weeks ago, and have lost 2 of the last 3 (admittedly in tough venues)...but the loss of Kerr is a tough one to overcome...Hanson out too is a big loss.
Quite the opposite to Melbourne, the Kanga's av. the second MOST I'50's in the comp (behind Geelong)...more than the Eagles...
...and as I keep saying, they are scoring machines...had 29+ shots in all but one game.
Kanga's lost in Perth last year by 26, and are going much better now..and before that the Eagles hadn't won any of the previous 5 by more than 24.
Tipping the Kangas to win...will be surprised if they get blown away.
Richmond/Brisbane? No thanks! Richmond's stats are almost identical to Brisbane on the road.
Richmond won last 3...last year at Dome by 82...but it wasn't really the flogging it makes out...
53-60 I50's...but Richmond scored @ 1.62 entries to 2.65...why? Well, Stafford and Simmonds kicked 2 each (Patrick Bowden 2)...Richo 6, so they clearly stretched the Brisbane backline...
won't be as easy this gamewith far less fire-power.
Brisbane were without Brown...Bradshaw kicked 3 from just 8 kicks...you'd expect Brown and Clarke to produce better numbers this time around.
2 terrible defenses, should be some points scored...unless Richmond go the flood which served Essendon so well v. Brisbane when Brown was double/tripple teamed all night.
Not sure it will happen. No real idea who will win...Brisbane did beat Carlton at the dome this year..are Richmond any better?
Swans -23.5. Won the corresponding game at the SCG last year by 43. No Lloyd, but will it matter against this D?
Sydney allow just 42 I50's a game at home...(+9), 20 shots!..and have won each of their last 6 at home by 27 or more!! (Winning all ats)
Essendon allow 57! (Most in AFL by a way!) (-6).
Sydney should be able to bottle Essendon up, and have far too many chances to score themselves.
Port/Hawks stats don't tell me much...although we've seen in the 4 weeks that the Port D is nowhere near as good as it first seemed!!
Hawthorn defense does appear to be very solid, allowing just 23 shots/game at over 2 entries per...
History is a worry, Port won last 7 meetings by 40, 57, 4 (MCG), 81, 52, 118 and 96 at home last season!
...again (I do seem to say this every week for the Hawks!!)...I'd prefer to have them +15ish...
(1.40 for +24.5?)
Hawthorn have lost 8 of their last 9 genuine road games tho...
*** 7.00 for the lowest round score looks value.
Doggies win @ 1.40
Too simplistic to say they play the Blues?! Probably...but Doggies seem same old team...
...lose against teams that bottle them up and allow few scoring chances.
Carlton have worst defense in the AFL, allowing 33 shots @ 1.68 per entry!
Despite some people's concerns, Dogs record at MCG is very good, won 5 of last 6 and topped 100 in all the wins (loss to Crows)...had 30 shots and scored 110 v. Hawthorn who are FAR superior defensively (and overall, let's be fair!) to Carlton.
Dogs won last 3 meetings by 30, 46 and 25. McMahon back in, Griffen better than 50/50...
...meh, they play the Blues.
St. Kilda +25.5.
Geelong stats all overblown by the Richmond game, but still not totally sold.
St. Kilda a differebt team in the dome...very good defensively, haven't allowed 100 in their last 9 there!...and allow just 4 I50's a game there this year.
Geelong have beaten Carlton and Richmond there...but lost to the Dogs in rd. 1, scoring just 93.
5-4 to Geelong last 9 meetings, but no game has been more than 19 points Geelong's way
2 outdoor losses have undervalued the Saints...esp. last week where they had +3 I50's, and just 1 less shot, despite their terrible scoring record on the road.
Remember they beat Sydney convincingly at the dome just 3 weeks ago.
More points than I was expecting, and will gladly take the 4 goals +.
So, I'm on:
Crows win
Kangas +25.5
Sydney -23.5
Dogs win
St. Kilda +25.5
...here's what I thought about the week...
...maybbe someone can gather something out of this mess! :SIB
I've been very tempted to take Freo +15.5...but only if Clement doesn't play (which I now think he will)...
...Just not sure how Collingwood stop Pav and Taz without him...
...but either way, the stats are interesting reading...Both teams reasonably bad at clearances and contested ball, so no advantage either way in the wet...
...but it hasn't hurt COllingwood at all. Last 5 games they av. -6 clearances a game, but +7 I50's!
Still, I don't think they can give more than 2 goals.
head to heads is also interesting...Freo by 15 as +18.5 'dogs last year at MCG...with remarkably similar road stats to this season.
In fact Freo won 8 of last 10 ats...so they do match up well.
You can't fault Freo's MCG record...won 7 of last 9 there! 2 over COlilngwood, and Melbourne this season.
Still not totally convinced about the 'Pies...beaten Kanga's in the luckiest win ever! Richmond, Ess, Carlton, Brisbane...the win @ Adelaide is the stand out, but Essendon did that too, so how well are the Crows going atm??
Of course, Freo's form line doesn't read much (any?!) better.
Really tough game to judge. Might tip Freo purely for the tipping value...but hard to be convinced either way.
(Good luck Jeffers!)
Crows win (1.47) for me. All Melbourne's "close" 3 weeks (out of 4) have done is made the Crows closer to 1.50 than 1.20 here!
Last week's result was purely due to Kangaroos bad conversion. 42-56 I50's, 25-36 clearances, 6 less shots...
So here we have the team that enters 50 the least (Melbourne) @ just 44 times a game!!...up against the team with the best defense (Adelaide) allowing a goal every 4.66 entries!!
Melbuorne haven't had more than 26 shots all year as it is...Crows allow just 23...very tough to see them cracking 70 points here...***
...other end, they have allowed 29 shots in all but 2 games (av. 31)..and while the Crows are hardly a team to set you alight, they have (quietly?) had 30, 29, 30 shots in their last 3.
Crows have won 6 out of last 7 meetings, and their only game this year at the 'G.
Can't trust them to kick a big enough score to cover a spread, but the win looks very likely.
Kanga's +25.5. Simply, despite all the show, WC have won just 3 games by more than this so far...Freo, Carlton, Melbourne!
They absolutely choked melbourne 2 weeks ago, and have lost 2 of the last 3 (admittedly in tough venues)...but the loss of Kerr is a tough one to overcome...Hanson out too is a big loss.
Quite the opposite to Melbourne, the Kanga's av. the second MOST I'50's in the comp (behind Geelong)...more than the Eagles...
...and as I keep saying, they are scoring machines...had 29+ shots in all but one game.
Kanga's lost in Perth last year by 26, and are going much better now..and before that the Eagles hadn't won any of the previous 5 by more than 24.
Tipping the Kangas to win...will be surprised if they get blown away.
Richmond/Brisbane? No thanks! Richmond's stats are almost identical to Brisbane on the road.
Richmond won last 3...last year at Dome by 82...but it wasn't really the flogging it makes out...
53-60 I50's...but Richmond scored @ 1.62 entries to 2.65...why? Well, Stafford and Simmonds kicked 2 each (Patrick Bowden 2)...Richo 6, so they clearly stretched the Brisbane backline...
won't be as easy this gamewith far less fire-power.
Brisbane were without Brown...Bradshaw kicked 3 from just 8 kicks...you'd expect Brown and Clarke to produce better numbers this time around.
2 terrible defenses, should be some points scored...unless Richmond go the flood which served Essendon so well v. Brisbane when Brown was double/tripple teamed all night.
Not sure it will happen. No real idea who will win...Brisbane did beat Carlton at the dome this year..are Richmond any better?
Swans -23.5. Won the corresponding game at the SCG last year by 43. No Lloyd, but will it matter against this D?
Sydney allow just 42 I50's a game at home...(+9), 20 shots!..and have won each of their last 6 at home by 27 or more!! (Winning all ats)
Essendon allow 57! (Most in AFL by a way!) (-6).
Sydney should be able to bottle Essendon up, and have far too many chances to score themselves.
Port/Hawks stats don't tell me much...although we've seen in the 4 weeks that the Port D is nowhere near as good as it first seemed!!
Hawthorn defense does appear to be very solid, allowing just 23 shots/game at over 2 entries per...
History is a worry, Port won last 7 meetings by 40, 57, 4 (MCG), 81, 52, 118 and 96 at home last season!
...again (I do seem to say this every week for the Hawks!!)...I'd prefer to have them +15ish...
(1.40 for +24.5?)
Hawthorn have lost 8 of their last 9 genuine road games tho...
*** 7.00 for the lowest round score looks value.
Doggies win @ 1.40
Too simplistic to say they play the Blues?! Probably...but Doggies seem same old team...
...lose against teams that bottle them up and allow few scoring chances.
Carlton have worst defense in the AFL, allowing 33 shots @ 1.68 per entry!
Despite some people's concerns, Dogs record at MCG is very good, won 5 of last 6 and topped 100 in all the wins (loss to Crows)...had 30 shots and scored 110 v. Hawthorn who are FAR superior defensively (and overall, let's be fair!) to Carlton.
Dogs won last 3 meetings by 30, 46 and 25. McMahon back in, Griffen better than 50/50...
...meh, they play the Blues.
St. Kilda +25.5.
Geelong stats all overblown by the Richmond game, but still not totally sold.
St. Kilda a differebt team in the dome...very good defensively, haven't allowed 100 in their last 9 there!...and allow just 4 I50's a game there this year.
Geelong have beaten Carlton and Richmond there...but lost to the Dogs in rd. 1, scoring just 93.
5-4 to Geelong last 9 meetings, but no game has been more than 19 points Geelong's way
2 outdoor losses have undervalued the Saints...esp. last week where they had +3 I50's, and just 1 less shot, despite their terrible scoring record on the road.
Remember they beat Sydney convincingly at the dome just 3 weeks ago.
More points than I was expecting, and will gladly take the 4 goals +.
So, I'm on:
Crows win
Kangas +25.5
Sydney -23.5
Dogs win
St. Kilda +25.5
Always a good read Christo. You should throw it down here more often.
Can't remember you ever being more complimentary about my Kangas!! You do have a soft spot for them after all!
I'm on my boys with the points, Rich 1-39 in a winnable game for them, Port ML and Geelong minus points. A few multi combos as well.
GL to us all
Can't remember you ever being more complimentary about my Kangas!! You do have a soft spot for them after all!
I'm on my boys with the points, Rich 1-39 in a winnable game for them, Port ML and Geelong minus points. A few multi combos as well.
GL to us all
Thanks mate...yeah, think I will post from now on...
...just not sure whehter to "tread on your toes" in your thread or maybe just have a seperate thread called AFL Thoughts or something...
...anyway...
Brisbane v. Richmond 190+ (2.00)
Pretty crappy price for a (3-way) total, but great number, imo.
Richmond's D is terrible...in fact both teams are really struggling down back...last 5 games they have allowed scored every 1.67 (Rich) and 1.72 (Bris) entries!!...further still, Brisbane allow a score every 1.68 away from home.
Richmnond have hit 200+ in 8 of their last 10 at the dome...the Adelaide snore-fest was one that didn't...
...Brisbane 9 of last 10 been 190+.
Just 4 of Richmond's games have been under 1990 this season...Sydney, West Coast, Adelaide...and Essendon last week although they kicked 12.20!
Richmond have allowd 29+ shots in all but one game...Brisbane allowed 30.5 in their last 7.
Brown up one end will be helped out enormously by Clark and Johnson back...
Richo at the other!
Scores. Lots of them!
See we're head to head on the Sunday arvo game PAWA...
Oh well..hopefully we'll both be up enough by then not to care! :00hour
...just not sure whehter to "tread on your toes" in your thread or maybe just have a seperate thread called AFL Thoughts or something...
...anyway...
Brisbane v. Richmond 190+ (2.00)
Pretty crappy price for a (3-way) total, but great number, imo.
Richmond's D is terrible...in fact both teams are really struggling down back...last 5 games they have allowed scored every 1.67 (Rich) and 1.72 (Bris) entries!!...further still, Brisbane allow a score every 1.68 away from home.
Richmnond have hit 200+ in 8 of their last 10 at the dome...the Adelaide snore-fest was one that didn't...
...Brisbane 9 of last 10 been 190+.
Just 4 of Richmond's games have been under 1990 this season...Sydney, West Coast, Adelaide...and Essendon last week although they kicked 12.20!
Richmond have allowd 29+ shots in all but one game...Brisbane allowed 30.5 in their last 7.
Brown up one end will be helped out enormously by Clark and Johnson back...
Richo at the other!
Scores. Lots of them!
See we're head to head on the Sunday arvo game PAWA...
Oh well..hopefully we'll both be up enough by then not to care! :00hour
