Well...what first looked like a crappy weekend, with lots of close games...now look slike I'm going to have a few bets.
(Fresh off a 0-6 weekend!! :scared )
Essendon/West Coast under 194.5 (1.90)
The Bombers have been pulling out every defensive technique in the book lately. Flooding...tagging defenders (Kennelly last week)...adds up to them having the BEST defensive record in the last 5 games @ a shot every 2.37 entries.
Actually, their record in the dome suggests that they do much the same thing consistantly at 'home', allowing just 90 ppg @ a shot every 2.26 entries this season.
West Coast have really struggled to score on the road as it is. A little over 76 ppg...but their high possession game does stand them in good defensive stead, allowing a shot just every 2.19 entries.
I suspect this game will be much of the same. Plenty of chipping around by the Eagles...Essendon flooding back to play fast break style, but chances are the Eagle's defensive will be up to that job.
Tough to pick a winner, tbh, but don't think it will be a monster score either way.
Hawks/Swans...another low scorer on the cards...will be happy to take an under of around the 180 mark.
Sydney seem to have gone into a very slow (boring!) game style on the road this season, av'ing just 43 I50's, and 42 against! (about 160 points per game).
The Swans have played just one game in their last 10 at the MCG that has gone over 173 total points!
Hawthorn have proven to be a strong defensive team as it is...allowing just 45 I50's in the last 5, and about 75 ppg.
Lean the Hawks, but couldn't take them as favs...under hopefully!
Dogs -5.5
Expecting a much more solid performance after last week's shocker...Brisbane defense every bit (well, almost! ) as bad as Carlton's...allowing a shot every 1.77 entries in their last 5.
Home stats are skewed by 2 good defensive performances early (v. Hawthorn and St. Kilda), but they've allowed 25, 30 and 30 shots in their last 3 at home...to 3 teams who just don't score as well as the Dogs do.
Murphy back is a huge boost too.
Of course, the Dogs defensive midfield pressure (lack of!) is always a concern, but Brisbane have only topped 100 in 3 of their last 10..Brown will be double teamed...either way Harris is a strong match-up for him, and Hargrave/Morris on Mitch Clark.
Dogs look to have too much fire power here...won their last 3 v. Brisbane by 23, 28 and 42...2 @ the 'Gabba.
Carlton/PA...tough to take either team here. Carlton allowing 228 ppg in theri last 5 at the Dome!
Last 5 games show 2 terrible defenses. Blues allowing a shot every 1.67, PA every 1.73!
The good news for Port is that they score every 1.75 entries...the bad news is that in the last 5 games they have entered their 50 the LEAST of any team @ just 44 times per game...which won't win you too many.
Even v. Richmond and Melbourne (allowing 55 each), they entered just 48 and 45 respectively.
Carlton allow 56, but can Port take advantage??
Tough one to read for me...
Crows/Geelong...Well, all year I've been saying the Geelong are yet to beat a team better than them...there may well be a very good explaination for that right now!!!
Not sure I can take them as road favs, but again looking at an under. Crows allow just 45 I50's/game at home.
Geelong have been super defensive last 5, allowing just 46 I'50s, and a shot every 2.34 entries.
Geelong should win I guess...
Kangas +9.5 thanks! Off their first BAD game for a long time...not even that bad...things were very even until the last 20 minutes.
Saints really struggling. Only topped 100 in 2 of their last 10...just 4 wins on the season...Kangas still seem to be under-rated.
Nearly 2.40 for the win looks huge!...I'll take the start...can't see St. Kilda winning by too much if they can get up at all.
Very tempted by the Tiges +30...but the big loss @ Port worries me.
Freo just aren't very good!!...but like Collingwood last week, I can't see Richmond having anyone to stop Tarrant/Pavlich...Polak will go to one...can Bowden run with Tarrant?? Mmmmm...food for thought.
Althugh Freo have won 4 of the last 5 (3 at home), wins have been by only 23, 10, 27 and 11...
...Freo 1-39 paying a pretty handy 2.35!...reckon I'll be tempted by that.
Sure, Melbourne have won the last 3 meetings, but 2 were as big favs...won last year as decent size dogs, but Collingwood were bit over-rated...playing much better this year imo.
Although Melbourne have been in some close games and finally got a win last week, last 5 games show they are still nearly -8 I50's a game (Coll +3.5)..Melbourne allow a shot ever 1.78 entries, Collingwood score every 1.79...Melbourne score every 2.02, Collingwood allow 2.03!!
Just about a mirror image...can't see Melbourne notching up number 2 here.
1.70 for the 'Pies looks very fair indeed.
Nice to see we're on the same page this week, PAWA. :SIB
