just an article:
Prediction 2003: we like the Pies
2:20:47 PM Sat 22 March, 2003
Paul Gough
afl.com.au
Collingwood fans may have had their hearts broken recently with painful defeats in last year?s grand final to Brisbane and in the Wizard Home Loans Cup grand final to Adelaide but the ultimate joy for the long-suffering ?Black and White Army? may be just six months away.
While Brisbane will start the 2003 home and away season as deserved premiership favourites after going back-to-back in 2001 and 2002 ? no team has won a hat-trick of premierships since Melbourne in 1957.
And with Collingwood?s enormous scope for further improvement after its rise from ninth to second in 2002 ? the Magpies look capable of going one better in 2003.
That is why I am is tipping the Magpies to win this year?s 2003 premiership with Brisbane second and the two Adelaide clubs ? the Crows and Port - third and fourth respectively.
As for the rest of the top eight ? in order it?s West Coast, Essendon, Hawthorn and Melbourne.
The Magpies may well have been derided by many as being lucky grand finalists last year but their performances in the finals ? wins over Port Adelaide (at AAMI Stadium), Adelaide and then running Brisbane to nine points in the grand final stamped them as top class.
And already their performances during the pre-season show they have no intention of going backwards following only their second finals appearance in the past decade.
The Magpies also not only look to have the hunger to go one better in 2003 but also the personnel.
The addition of Melbourne?s 2000 Brownlow Medalist Shane Woewodin in particular now gives the Magpies? midfield the kind of awesome look that Brisbane?s has had in the past few years.
The Magpies could now rightly claim that a midfield of Nathan Buckley, Paul Licuria, Tarkyn Lockyer, Scott Burns, Shane O?Bree, Mark McGough, Ryan Lonie, the much-improved Rhyce Shaw and Woewodin is now the equal of Brisbane?s all-conquering outfit of the past two years.
Throw in a forward line of Chris Tarrant, Jarrad Molloy, Anthony Rocca, Josh Fraser plus goalsneaks Leon Davis and Alan Didak and the Pies have the strikepower to beat any side.
And while its defence always looks light on for star names - Simon Prestigiacomo, Jason Cloke and James Clement continue to do the job week after week while the Pies look to unearthed another solid defender in Matthew Lokan.
And to cap it off the young Pies? line-up ? all of whom with the exception of Buckley have their best football in front of them - have a great draw with no trips to Perth and return games against likely strugglers Carlton, Richmond and Sydney.
Brisbane remains a clear second pick with the bulk of Leigh Matthews? squad at the peak of their careers.
However the Lions have had their problems during the pre-season particularly the lingering illness to star midfielder Nigel Lappin.
Other key players Jonathan Brown and Chris Scott also enter the season underdone and it is often hard for players to make-up lost ground from the pre-season once the home and away season gets underway.
And after the joys of back-to-back flags ? will the Lions? motivation be as high as those clubs which have not enjoyed the ultimate success recently?
Adelaide rates third but will be desperate to seize its opportunity this year with most of its key players nearing the end of their careers.
As the Crows showed in the Wizard Cup final ? their skill level under pressure is second to none and the addition of Wayne Carey could well be the final piece of their premiership jigsaw.
But there still must be major question marks over Carey?s ability to see out the season along with other key veterans such as Mark Bickley and Mark Ricciuto ? who have both endured injury-marred pre-seasons.
Their fierce locals rivals Port still deserve to be rated the other major contender despite its dreadful pre-season.
The Power have not won a single game so far while star forward Warren Tredrea suffered a dislocated kneecap that could keep him out of the start of the season.
But the Power?s midfield depth remains the equal of any club and they will surely be highly-motivated after failing in the finals the past two years.
However given that like Adelaide, many of Port?s key players are also getting towards the end of their careers ? it could be a case of now or never for Port this year.
Those four teams look a cut above their 12 rivals and it would be a major surprise if the AFL premiership was won by any other club in 2003.
As for the other four teams that will make up the top eight this year ? well, you could virtually mount a case for any team with the possible exceptions of Carlton and Sydney.
However West Coast look the best placed of the remaining clubs to challenge for a place in the top four this season.
The Eagles have slowly built one of the best midfields in the competition ? Ben Cousins, Chris Judd, Daniel Kerr, Chad Fletcher, Drew Banfield and Rowan Jones and have now added Daniel Chick and Damian Adkins.
Their forward line also has potency through Troy Wilson and number one ruckman Michael Gardiner ? who is equally effective in attack ? while Quinten Lynch is a more than handy back-up.
And in Phil Matera ? the Eagles have one of the game?s best goalsneaks.
Defence remains a worry with the club still showing an over-reliance on veteran duo Glen Jakovich and Ashley McIntosh but those two appear revitalised under the coaching of their former skipper John Worsfold.
And don?t forget the Eagles have 12 games in Perth ? where they were near unbeatable last year ? and would only need to pick up a couple of wins in Melbourne to be up near the top four.
Essendon rates next even though there are many who believe the Bombers will slip out of the top echelon this year.
But while there is no doubt the loss of experienced players Chris Heffernan, Blake Caracella, Gary Moorcroft and Justin Blumfield will make it difficult for the Bombers to mount a premiership challenge - how can you possibly tip against them making the eight when they still have James Hird, Matthew Lloyd, Dustin Fletcher, Jason Johnson and Sean Wellman in their ranks.
Hawthorn looks the only team capable of breaking into the eight this year with the Kangaroos the team most likely to make way.
The Hawks were desperately disappointing last year and have had their problems during the pre-season with Nathan Thompson, John Barker, Nick Holland and Richard Vandenberg all likely to miss the start of the season.
But of that quartet only Barker is facing a lengthy spell on the sidelines and the Hawks? midfield ? led by skipper Shane Crawford ? forward line and defence ? led by Jon Hay and Jade Rawlings ? still looks better than the bulk of its rivals.
Melbourne rounds out the eight but looks the most vulnerable of the finalists from last year, apart from the Kangaroos.
Not only do the Demons have five interstate trips ? many other Victorian clubs who will be challenging for a place in the eight only have four ? but they will be starting the year badly undermanned for height in defence with Alistair Nicholson, Craig Ellis and Troy Broadbridge still recovering from knee injuries.
And while last year?s Coleman Medalist David Neitz leads their attack ? their forward line does not appear to have too many other options.
But provided Neitz can match last year?s performance ? the Demons? classy midfield, led by Adem Yze and Travis Johnstone, should be able to secure a fourth finals appearance in six years under the coaching of Neale Daniher.
And what about those teams that will not make the eight in 2003.
Of these Geelong appears the best credentialed but still lacks match-winners, Fremantle is on the improve but is unlikely to win games away from Perth, St Kilda lacks self-belief and its youngsters still look at least a year away from peaking while the Kangaroos will play with spirit but lack quality key position players.
Richmond will struggle to cover the loss of Brad Ottens for at least half the season and still look under-sized in defence, the Bulldogs still lack height in defence and rely on too few, Carlton will improve under the coaching of Denis Pagan but still have a poor list overall and Sydney has a star full-forward in Barry Hall but lack quality in midfield and defence.
My ladder for 2003 is:
1: Collingwood.
2: Brisbane.
3: Adelaide.
4: Port Adelaide.
5: West Coast.
6: Essendon.
7: Hawthorn.
8: Melbourne.
9: Geelong.
10: Fremantle.
11: St Kilda.
12: Kangaroos.
13: Richmond.
14: Bulldogs.
15: Carlton.
16: Sydney.
