AFL wk.1

[MrChristo]

Rightio then...here we go!

Obviously a little early for any selections yet, not knowing any team make-ups yet, but wondering if anyone has any feelings on this weekends games?

PAWA, what do you think of the Roo's chances?

I think it's a horror round to open up....A lot of key injuries.

The only sure winner I see is Freo, but the -36.5 might be a bit steep....although it is forecast to be mid to high 30's.

Was hoping for the Doggies to get a few more points.

At this stage looking at Freo -25 @ 1.55, Geelong +16.5 and Port -18.5...But as I said, bit hard without named teams.

Just thought I'd get a thread started anyway...Hopefully we can get off to a good start to the year.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

I do fancy my Kangaroo's chances against Adelaide MrC and like yourself was expecting some more points. Will look closer when the teams are named.

Still much homework to do as I have been lazy in the off season. Looks like a few late nights ahead of me.


I'll just be taking the odd nibble until week 3 when the 'Express' rolls out!! :brows:
Will be backing up the ute for this years bankroll

 

[MrChristo]

ok....We're off.

Record 0-0!

Sticking with the Freo game. Sticking with the -24.5 @ 1.55 (2 units).
Will be tough for Carlton with 9 new players!!..Hell, it's gunna be tough for everyone over there in Perth. Freo have won the last 2 meetings @ home by 28 points, so I'm not going to mess with the handicap which is now upto 34.5. 4 goals should be an easy enough margin.

Sydney +22.5

Sydney won both meetings last year..inc. a 14 point win @ the Gabba....And although they did lose the Prelim Final to Bris by 44, it was very much closer than that the whole way.
Now, Ball is in from the last meeting, and Brown is out for Bris.
Every chance Sydney win this one outright...love getting 22.5. Should be close either way.

Port Adelaide -18.5

Port won the last meeting by 39 @ home, and this is virtually the same team on paper....In fact Primus is IN and no-one of any note is out.
Essendon are missing Barnard, Jacobs, Mark Johnson and Wellman from that side (and likely Solomon too). BIG ask for players like Bradley, Richards, Bullen and Winderlich to perform against a strong Port team. Add to that Ess dismal travel record and the -18.5 looks very gettable.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

With you on two of those MrC.....

Happy to get points with Sydney who should play em tough.
Port giving just the 3 goals is a 'banker' me thinks!! That Bomber travelling record is atrocious.
I'll be taking my Kangas as well.

Only 'one more sleep'

 

[MrChristo]

Good to see we're on the same page, PAWA

Good luck with the Kanga's. It's the only game I can't decide on this week. I think Adelaide still has the more talented team, but Kanga's did beat them by 10 @ Adelaide at the end of last year.
The one thing that has swayed me to the Crows is the schedule. Adelaide host Brisbane next week and then go to Freo. They know if they lose this game they are a big chance to be 0-3...Not where they want to be. (obviously!).

 

[bombercoops]

Agree with you guys on the swans and port. As you guys said, the dons travel poorly out of state and 3 goals for the home side looks profitable. I also believe that the swans can beat the lions this weekend and as they proved last year, they have no problem travelling to the gabba.

 

[MrChristo]

Just one quick bit on the Crows/Kanga's game. The game in Rd. 21 @ AAMI last year when Kangas beat Adelaide it was pouring with rain...The perfect conditions for the Roos.
Forecast says fine and mid 20's on Sunday...Sorry, PAWA. Starting to think the Crows are good value @ 1.80ish. :shrug:

 

[PAWAQATSI]

I reckon you should stay away from it Christo if thats all that scares you. I'm pretty confident mate.

Also swaying towards the Tigers tonight against Collingwood. Some handy players missing for the Pies and I can't see how they cover the Richmond talls. Have it on good (doctors) advice that Clement can't / won't play for several weeks. Just another Collingwood problem!!

Melbourne for some value also.


Good luck and let the games begin.

 

[beast2]

Round 1 Plays:
Collingwood -7.5
Hawthorn -6.5
Adelaide -4.5

Like West Coast too but will wait to see the first two picks before I commit to another bet

Craig

 

[MrChristo]

Have it on good (doctors) advice that Clement can't / won't play for several weeks.

Hope he's not your GP, PAWA!! I'd be finding myself anyone quick smart.
Teams line up as selected.

Collingwood may be underdone, but Richmond are extremely over-hyped, IMO. No better than last year. I've got a fair bit wagered with some mates that they will finish in the bottom 6.

Anyway....10 minutes away now...Can't wait!! :tongue

 

[nehpets]

collingwood -5.5

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Richmond home in a canter!!

They looked OK after the first 5 minutes. Very tall side and hasn't "chalky" Richardson bulked up?!!
Magpies will struggle until Rocca returns. I think the 'window of opportunity' is closing on this lot.

Sacking my bro-in-law who is an eye specialist at the hospital that Clement goes to!! :shrug:

Onto the Demons tommorrow.

 

[bombercoops]

Good call on the tiges pawa. Good way to start the season. They have missed a decent 'window of opportunity' over the past 2 years but it's hard to say that they won't be around comes years end. Malthouse will whip his boys in shape for another assault on this years flag IMO.

 

[bombercoops]

Also see value in the crows at 1.80 along with the coasters giving up the 8.5. Don't know how you rate your doggies of turning around last years effort Mr C but liking west coast here. Pawa, looked at the draw mate and it looks like the roos/dons match up falls in July for memory. Might have to make plans to get down there for the game if you're keen mate.

 

[MrChristo]

Doggies/Eagles....

Doggies/Eagles....

...all week was thinking about playing the Doggies, bomber, but when the lines cames out at only +8 I held back.
The more I think about it, the more I like the Eagles...And, ironically it's due to our 'super-trade'!!
The Eagles defense has HUGE problems against small, agile forwards because of their own size....but this year with our forward line loaded with Rawlings, Darcy, Morgan and Darcy, I think the Eagles (although young and relatively inexperienced...besides Jako of course!) can match with them well.
We drew with Eagles in Perth last year...Brown kicked 7.
Won @ optus in 2002....Brown kicked 7 and Johnson 5.

Definately a no bet game for me.....
BUT, no matter what happens this week, I can confidently say we won't be 0-2 next week. If we can't beat a Rocca-less, obviously underdone Collingwood @ MCG next week, I'll give the game away.
(Actually kinda hope we get beaten this week....maybe we can start as underdogs next week )

 

[Pumpkin]

A couple of late changes

Primus out for Port and Archer out for the Kanga's

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Going to the 'G' to watch my Roos but not having any $'s on 'em now that Arch is out. It's enough to make me think twice as we'll miss his presence out there. Port can get by without Primus so sticking with the 'Smears'

Geez.....the Demons / Hawk pre-season form sucked me in!! Melbourne were poor today.

Sydney doing alright at the moment.


Good to hear from ya Beasty

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Sydney go down at the death. Ball missed a 'sitter' from in front to win it. Still.....covered with the start so everyone's happy!
Sainters pole-axed the Cats.

Bomber........Essendon vs Kangaroos Friday Night July 2 @ the Dome. We'll tee something up mate.

 

[bombercoops]

Good to see that we all hit on the swans yesterday. 22.5 looked too many from the get go and this proved to be the case. See how today unravels now.

Pawa, should be able to get something worked out for the showdown in early July. Always proves to be a good game between our clubs.

 

[kickserv]

look at all those Aussies.........look at em all

good job so far guys :tongue