AFL Wk. 2.

[MrChristo]

3-0 (+2.9 units.)

Jumping on this one now.....Doggies to win @ 2.57!!!

HUGE odds. I know Rocca is back for the 'Pies, and he will make them a much better team than last week...but I still think the price is based wholly on reputation.
I said it time and time again last year that the Coll'wood midfield isn't good at all....Hold Tarrant/Rocca, you're a long way to winning the game.
Actually expect Rocca to play in the ruck. Fraser was absolutely smashed by Ottens last week, so no reason Darcy wouldn't dominate him.
Harris looks a good match up with Tarrant...Much more athletic than either Croft or Kretiuk are/were.
Not ENTIRELY confident of a win, but definately more than 50/50.....Odds of 2.57 are way out of line.

LOVE another 'dog this week, but will wait as they seem to be still drifting out! :tongue

 

[Pumpkin]

Didn't have a play in the 1st week as it look a little tough, but this week I'll be jumping on Ess @ $2.30

They will have a better line up this weekend and their record at Colonial is good - compared to the interstate matches.

2pts Ess @$2.30 or better

 

[MrChristo]

Port Adelaide SU @ 2.30.

I simply cannot understand this price at all! Opened at 1.90 each, and has slowly been drifting out all week!!! Ifigure this is about as high as it will get...SURELY!!

Are people just blindly backing West Coast because they are at home?...Well that's fine against Victorian teams, but not Port.
The Power have won 6 of the last 7 meetings between the clubs, and the one loss was Rd. 1 last year when Port were EXTREMELY under-done.
Port have won 6 of 9 games all time @ Perth, and this game will also be played at night, negating the heat, another advantage the Eagles might have had.
Yes, Port have some good players out (with Primus likely to miss again too), but the midfield of Brogan in the ruck, P. Burgoine, Carr, Schofield and Kingsley is as good as any going around.
Port will have a definate advantage at both ends of the ground. West Coast struggled to contain Rawlings last week, so how do you think they will go with Tredrea!!
Cornes will be too good for who-ever the Eagles play at CHF, and Wilson/Wanganeen/Cochrane will be able to keep Sampi/Matera quiet.
Can't see anything here other than a Port victory.
2.30 is a crazy price.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Was certainly looking at taking Port with the points Christo but your argument for a straight up win is strong. Will ponder it abit more.

As for your Bulldogs, I will need more convincing against a 'theoretically' superior team in the Magpies. I think they can do enough against the 'doggies' to win.

 

[beast2]

1-2 (-1.1 Units)

Round 2 Plays:
Port +9.5
Have to agree with Christo here. This is a crazy price. Port have won 18 games each of the last 2 seasons and there record in the west shows it holds no fears.

St Kilda -9.5
St Kilda destroyed Geelong last week by 61 , although admittedly not strong opposition while Essendon were defeated by 96 points by Port. These results add up to a play on St Kilda to me.

Kangaroos +9.5
Two teams meet here who had great results in round 1. I can't see any reason why there is a favourite so I must back the underdog.


Other games:
Melbourne - Richmond Neither of these teams I would have any confidence in what they might do at the moment. Richmond are and and should be favorites but I am not going to trust them just yet.

Bulldogs - West Coast Bulldogs were impressive against West Coast and can cause the upset here but something tells me that Collingwood will get the win here especially considering they play Brisbane next Thursday and could be 0-3 with a loss.

Adelaide - Brisbane Being an Adelaide supporter makes me bias here but I will be hugely disappointed if we don't put in a better performance when I travel to AAMI Stadium.

Sydney - Freo is a tough game to call but you would have to favour Sydney with Freo's away record. Not enough for a play a -15.5 though

Carlton - Geelong This a flip of the coin game between two ordinary teams. Anyone who gets involved must be psychic.

Craig

 

[bombercoops]

Think you're on a good thing taking port straight up christo and will also be jumping abourd for the ride. Way to good a price to stay away from.
Never know what the tiges and dees are going to produce on the day but 18.5 points seems like a decent amount and I'm definitely leaning on the dees at this point.
Trends between the saints and dons indicate an essendon win but as you said beasty, last weeks results may very well indicate the level at which the two clubs are at, at this stage of the season. I never bet against my team but the saints look the play IMO.
What are your thoughts on your roos this week pawa?

 

[PAWAQATSI]

I'm pretty confident bomber.....just not as much as last week when we hammered the Crows!
Drew with them in pre-season praccy and confident that Roos +points will gain the $'s. Not betting it myself as I just want to watch it.

Still looking at teams etc. for my final selections.

 

[MrChristo]

Well, this looks like the week my girlfriend jumps out to a biglead in the tipping!! (Stop giggling, bomber )

Picked 6 underdogs to win this week Could be a very stressful couple of days!

Fremantle +20.5!!! (1.80 @ SportsTAB) [+15.5 everywhere else]

No reason at all that this won't be a very close game. Sydneyu won at home last season by 14 points after trailing most of the match. Since then, Sydney have lost Cresswell, Schauble and Nick Davis....and not much has come in to replace them!
Freo will miss Cook and Croad (obviously!) from last years team, but get Waterhouse and Sandilands in.....And this is where the advantage is.
HEIGHT.
Sandilands will win the ruck duel and give first use to Fremantle. Sydney's main strength is having Goodes ruck and then run around the field, but with Sandilands winning the ruck knocks, I suspect Pavlich will run with Goodes and neautralise him pretty well. (He only had 12 touches last year!).
Also, Freo will have Simmonds playing FF, and without Schauble, Sydney will be left with James/Bolton or Doyle to match him with! BIG advantage Freo.
Freo's onnly real weakness is CHF, but that won't matter so much on the smaller SCG.
Picked Freo to win, and love getting the points.


Hawthorn WIN @ 1.65

Really like the look of the Hawks this year. Their midfield is superb, and I can't see how the Kangaroos will slow them down.
I know one game doesn't mean much, but Hawthorn had 43 clearences to Melbourne's 24 last week.....Not great news for the Kanga's, who only had 28 themselves last week. (8 less than Adelaide!!).
Everitt will DOMINATE anyone the Kangaroos can put in the ruck. (McKernan!!!...Brown, Hale, Porter??)...and feed Mitchell all game. The Kangaroos midfield gets plenty of the ball themselves, but they are loose so Mitchell, Crawford, Vandenburg etc. should get plenty of it to feed a very potent forward line.
Provided Hawthron kick straight (They missed a heap of easy shots last week, and should have won by a lot more!), I expect them to win this one quite comfortably.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Provided Hawthron kick straight (They missed a heap of easy shots last week, and should have won by a lot more!), I expect them to win this one quite comfortably.

:tongue

 

[bombercoops]

6 dogs this week christo! I bet the Mrs. is loving her chances of getting on top in the tipping after hearing that, and yes, I enjoyed the comment mate. Hope for your sake they come through for you. In regards to the roos/hawks game, I think it will be a pretty close game the whole way through regardless of who wins it. Roos have enough to hang with the hawks and can definitely win this one should they turn up. GL on the pups tonight Mr C.

 

[MrChristo]

Can you believe that out of the 6 upsets I tipped, Melbourne wasn't one of them!

[SIZE=0.5]but the GF did! (But she's a Melbourne supporter, so it hardly counts!.....)[/SIZE]


EDIT: Tonight's result definately strengthens my confidence in the Doggies and Hawthorn.

Sorry, PAWA. This Hawk team will be tough to beat all year.
Archer out again too...Not that that influences things much.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

3-1 (+1.7 units)

Port +9.5 x2u

Multi> Port +9.5 / Adelaide +7.5 / Geelong @ $7.22

Geelong missing a few but Carlton are still the worst team going around and are playing off a trip out west. Winning %s in recent times for these teams first up after playing there is only just in the double digits. Enough for me to throw them into the mix.

Still may play my Roos. Will sleep on it!!


Good luck gents

 

[bombercoops]

Did you have the tigers pawa or drop a game last week mate? Didn't expect the dees to get up by 59 points but it really shouldn't be a surprise considering the lack of consistancy that both teams usually display. On to today.

 

[bombercoops]

Christo, if you're not in Royal Hobart hospital right now then you're probably at the bar sucking back a bunch of cold one's. Tough loss mate considering they looked good things at the half. Hope you had them getting the points. Saints look the play tonight IMO.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

4-2 (+2.5 units)

Port home in a thriller which is good news for all. Adelaide screw up my multi but I'll run again with the Cats outright @ $2 for 1u anyways.

Christo......once you sober up and look at your team in the cold light of day you will come to realise that no other team in history has been so cruel to their supporters. The Western Bulldogs do not know how to win a game of football when they actually get into a winning position......and the sooner you change teams......the better off you will be both mentally and spiritually. I for one could not cope with what they put you doggie supporters through!! :nooo:


bomber....I dropped one on the Demons last week against Hawthorn.

 

[bombercoops]

Well, good to see we snuck the port game home. Hoping for your sake C that you had some $$ on the port line as well as straight up. Good to the see the saints get a win also How bad are the dons playing at the moment for anyone who has seen the last two games? Pawa, you said they were terrible last week and I can't imagine the picture was any prettier last night.

 

[MrChristo]

Don't talk to me about the Dogs, or the Royal Hobart!!

After taking a horrible beating in the afternoon (you are 100% PAWA...Not sure how/why I do it ), I decided to double up on Port on the ML.
5 goals up with 10 minutes to play, and only a Doggie-type performance would lose it from here, right?
West Coast (as you know) lose by 3 points.....after hitting the post 3 times in the last 5 minutes....ALL from 25 metres or closer!!!!!!!!

Too much stress for a placid little guy like me!

Dunno how you feel about Carey these days, PAWA, but he is struggling badly! Doesn't seem to be any run in the legs at all. All day he tried to stand his ground and wrestle with Michael, and was comprehensively beaten all day.
Crows will not win many games if they persist with Carey as a lone forward.
In fact, Crows will be a good go against for a little while anyway. McLeod looks out of shape (literally looks fat?!!), and Ricciuto has a bad foot injury...He only kicked left foot in training during the week and only kicked the ball twice yesterday!!
(Wish I had have known all this before the weekend! )

 

[bombercoops]

Congrats on your roos pawa! Looking pretty good early in the season which i'm sure you're quite happy about. Wish I was on them in hindsight.

 

[beast2]

Round 2 Result: 3-0 for +2.7 Units
Year to date: 4-2 for +1.6 Units

Port +9.5 WIN
Very glad I had the +9.5 in this as towards the end of the game as always felt safe during the last quarter.

St Kilda -9.5 WIN
Essendon tried to bully the younger St Kilda side and came off second best. Essendon may not be as good as some off the pre season predictions.

Kangaroos +9.5
Kanagroos jumped to an early lead and were able to hold of each of Hawthorns challenges before winning relatively easily.

Other games:
As predicted the Melbourne - Richmond was a game you could not trust either team and Melbourne by 60 proved that.

The less said about my team Adelaide the better. Brisbane's 8 goals to 1 in the first quarter says it all.

The Bulldogs must learn to win. They probably should be 2-0 instead of 0-2. Collingwood were probably lucky that the Bulldogs kicked so badly. (Rawlings kicked 3.7)

As expected Sydney won at home after a second half burst.

Finally, Geelong has to be the worst team in the AFL based on today's performance. They will be getting a priority pick at the end of the year based on that.

Craig

 

[MrChristo]

4-3 (+1.2)

What a horrible week! (Although, seems everyone else did well enough! )

Yep....under-rating the Roos as always! Looking very good PAWA. Furrito did a great job on Crawford!
And Grant, Simpson and Colbert all more than pulling their weight in my Fantasy Team

Freo were at a bit of a disadvantage due to the weather conditions, but made no difference betting wise, as they really faded out badly in the last 1/4.

Plan B...Go against Crows and Geelong and Essendon.....Get on Kangas and St. Kilda.....ALWAYS TAKE THE POINTS ON OFFER IN A DOGGIES GAME!!!!!