Africa Open

[Stanley]

Round 1 play (4pts):

David Drysdale to beat Sam Little -111 @ Bet365
No point denying that Little was in great form at the end of last year - he won three times in four weeks on the Challenge Tour to secure his European Tour Card for 2012. But other than that purple patch in September-October, he had had just one other top-10 finish all year and would have been heading to Q-School but for those wins. In that sense, the end of the season came at the wrong time for Little and now he returns to the Tour on which he missed 24 of 30 cuts the last time (2010). Drysdale is a solid enough player to back in this situation - made the cut in eight of his last ten starts - and has a decent record in South Africa, but this is mainly a play against Little.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Gonnet tb Pavan +100; Gonnet tb Murray -140]

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:

Jbe Kruger(20/1) e.w.
- -

Damien McGrane(125/1) e.w.
- -

GL

 

[Stanley]

Round 2 play (2pts):

Keith Horne to beat Richard Bland -125 @ 5Dimes
Horne held a dominant 17-8-1 h2h record against Bland in 2011 and while the Englishman may have rediscovered some of his form in the Q-School last year and continued that into today's opening round, he should still struggle to beat Horne on this course. The South African has finished in the top-25 in each of the last three years here (Bland is making his course debut) and again sits in the top-25 after his opening 69.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Kingston tb Norris -125; Quesne tb Nixon -125; Goosen tb Aiken -111; Wilson tb Horne +110]

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Retief Goosen to beat Thomas Aiken -111 @ Bet365
Both players lie 2nd after 36 holes, so it is simply a matter of who is the more likely to go on and win from this position. In this regard, the bookies across the board price Goosen shorter than Aiken, but let's look at how they have performed in this position: Aiken has been in the top-3 after 36 holes on 5 occasions in a European Tour-sanctioned events and shot 75-69-70-74-72; Goosen's last five occasions when in that position on the European Tour have yielded 3rd round scores of 72-69-68-66-71 ... almost three shots better per round than Goosen. Worthy of a small play on the 2009 champion.

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 play (6pts):

Danny Willett to beat Tjaart Van Der Walt -105 @ 5Dimes
Surprised to see such a good price to oppose Van Der Walt who will be paired with two Major Champions, Louis Oosthuizen and Retief Goosen, in the final round. That would be daunting for any player, but particular for one who has never won a Tour event in his 15 years as a professional! The last time that he held the lead was back in 2005 (the South African Open) and he shot 74 in the final round that day to drop to 8th. Willet, in 4th place, should be in prime position to profit from a faltering leader.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Ahlers tb Rowe -130; Elson tb Easton -125; Gonnet tb Kingston -105; Marshall tb Karmis -110; Mulroy tb Coetzee +110; Carlsson tb Da Silva -125]

 

[lostinamerica]

Sunday:

Willett(-105) over T. Van Der Walt

GL