Ah!!The day of glory or tomrrow's bear claw was this a rally????

[Equity Trader]

Well there is little doubt that today's market gains came on the heals of NYSE, GE and Nasdaq from Cisco,which showed positive earnings,basicly surprising the street.....So what are we to expect when the shorts had their thongs pulled right up through their buttonholes today? Sure was nice to see them get dethonged.....Ok, what next????Oboy, we have tomorrow and today's action doesn't guarantee a positive tomorrow? Not if the trading pattern of late holds true. And what were today's primers along with the above,short covering at it's best,yup they really got whacked.And of course the oversold market and it was time,along with that, there were still some players on the sidelines with cash.lots of cash....

With the slide from the last couple of weeks and these two guy's coming out with positive numbers, a rally would certainly backup an already oversold market.....Will it last?Nope....The spike today was on heavy volume and that means the profit takers and shorty will be back in town tomorrow.....The drop probably won't be so drastic as the rise today,but with heavy volume it is always superseded by a rally...You ask why??Well remember Eron and Anderson and GlobalCrossing,not to forget all the others that will finally make their way into the celebrity pages of who's who of corporate shananigans,it's earnings....Yes,this part,E/R respresents the total makeup of shareholders buying power and will decide the stock price,not some off the wall fluff PR or an unexplained event that leaves shareholders holding toilet paper.........Not even some high flyer (CISCO) with a market cap into the billions, that has already taken the steam out of shareholders equity and won't come back anytime soon...So watch the drop tomorrow.....Oh, and on Cisco,this one as stated above with a huge market cap,well, their status is still in limbo.....

So what's on tap for tomorrow?A test against the
weekly jobless claims and what the economists are predicting will be a 13,000-claim decline from last week?s level of 418,000
claims, the minutes from the last FOMC meeting and a few
other indicators. On Friday, the biggie is the Producer Price
Index and some creative nondiscriptive,but extremely well chosen words from our poker face economists Alan Greenspan.

So,should we sing the rallying cry? Although,today's rally has been decent, It does lack a sustained rally and spikes are for profit takers. So the market's going to be looking for follow-through.Will it hold?Depends on the next couple of days......

Whether tomorrow brings in the profit-takers, the bears and
an equally quick retreat, well, we'll know soon enough.
Chances are, beware the clawed ones.Technology is still very much lagging behind, like a jogger wiping snot from his nose and carry a gunny sack that will just weigh down the forward motion..Unless the nostrils are clean and honed,the lagging indicators will prevail....

See you all on the trading floor.....

Have a good day......

ET

 

[wareagle]

the question is how much will it giv back today. I predict the dow down 125 and the nesdaq down 40. I hope i am wrong!

ps: someone do a little dance for the cotton market! congress is killing us...

 

[Equity Trader]

Ok we took a breather,that was predictable,so what's next??

Ok we took a breather,that was predictable,so what's next??

Wow!! yesterday, most thought that we would be out of the woods,well not quite,but I do think that the infamous bear claw is just that and pawing.......

So what happened today?Just a reality check with a retracing of what might come in the weeks ahead......Anytime a market makes a run,like what we saw yesterday, is indicative of just maybe that the bear market is coming to an end and a great need to consolidate the market as a whole and bring up the slackers....This is bound to happen over the next few
weeks, and buying on the dips,as opposed to selling the rallies. Look for market sentiment to improve, as investors begin to see some positives signs......

From the last few months when warehouses were showing signs of bare shelves,it was just a matter of time that a concentration to beef up these depleting inventories was the first indicator for a rebound.... Although,corporate thinking is still to hold back the hiring,which is always a lagging indicator of coming out of a slowing economy,productivity is moving up...So for the employed that are getting their overtime,it will be short lived before new faces join their ranks....

The Labor Department said the number of workers receiving state unemployment benefits rose by 61,000 to a 19-year high of 3.8 million in the last few weeks.

This is a key reading here.First-time claims for jobless benefits dropped to a two-month low, by 11,000 to 411,000. The four-week average of new claims fell by 7,500 to 428,000.
Those numbers on the first-time jobless benefits dropped, so it appears the slow up in laying off is showing signs that corporations have to fill those empty shelves.....

This is probably are saving grace,since the summer months are considered so so for the markets...If we can just get the umployment figure to a more normal level we will have a nice run in the latter half of 2002 and an ok ho ho ho for the end of the year....

Look for a major recovery around the 2nd-3rd quarter of 2003...


Have a good day
ET