Air Canada, SBC, car companies big 3

selkirk

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Jul 16, 1999
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from 2002 predictions
11. Air Canada goes bankrupt.
well it happened on April 1, 2003 but it still happened, when I reviewed this was surprised they were still going but thought they would try to IPO some of their divisions, maintenance, regional services and hang on for a year or two more. AC traded at a high of $8 this year, and is now at .98 cents. it is worth nothing. someone today told me they were going to buy it for .95 "just to see what happens". What will happen is this indivual will lose the $3000 gamble it is worth zero.

the company is a great short candidate. in 1999 made a good profit during the takeover battle, Onex, Air Canada, Canadian. The takeover of Canadian along with increased debt helped to kill the company. note I own puts on the stock.


SBC bought this stock back on April 1, sold it before got stopped out, SBC on March 28 announced an increase to their dividend to $1.13 and a special .05 dividend. getting paid 5.60% yield is not bad while you wait for better times. SBC is a small position and I still worry about some of the regulatory rulings that have happened and the ones that maybe be coming in the future.


Though the big 3 domestic car companies should have a nice boost in the share price if the war ends, and sales may also pick up for the summer. I would still avoid this whole sector, these companies are back to 0% financing deals to drive sales or large cash rebates instead of the financing. If any of these companies miss badly with their line up then the stock can get crushed, the one in biggest trouble is Ford. stocks may have a nice run, but would avoid them in the long term.


by the way sold CAE near its bottom :( cest la vie.

thanks
selkirk
 

Franky Wright

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Heaven, oh!!, this isn't it?!
Question Selkirk

Question Selkirk

Been watching your stuff, very good I might add.
Curious, at what price did you buy SBC at? My wife works there and we own some stock, and were looking at aquiring more? not sure though. Am thinking of purchasing 200-500 QQQ to ride out this mini rally, and anyother thoughts you might have on others is always appreciated! :D
 

selkirk

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Jul 16, 1999
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Franky Wright I bought 300 shares of SBC at $20.80 stop loss set at $18. I have traded the stock and held it a few times and for the most part did well, except for the last time when I got stopped out at a lost.

SBC is in much better shape than most of the US telcos but going to keep my position small for now. do not know your weighting or the percentage of your portfolio in SBC, make sure if SBC breaks that you do not have all of your wealth on one stock, still remember stories of people in stocks like Worldcom, and Enron.

would have bought 500 shares but worried about some of the regulatory rulings and general competition.

other telco I own is BCE, cdn. telco, which bought back 20% from SBC of Bell cdn. Defensive stock, safe dividend downside slow revenue, still has held up well in terrible market. new management has done a good job since the $8 billion wasted on Teleglobe from previous managment.

own the QQQs, spiders, diamonds, XIU (cdn), and two that track bonds. I trade these positions but will always have some in all of them. if the war goes good (lets hope) then the market should have a brief rally.

longer term would be worried about (seems always something to worry about) slow US economic growth 1-2% best case is not that good, how much money will be needed to rebuild Iraq and in general the rebuilding plan.

finally concerned about SARS, visited someone in the hospital and it took an extra hour just to get in. Some hospitals in Ontario are shut down, no visitors, many people have to stay home for 10 days. also every day news of one or two more people who died. If this spreads to the US from Asia (now Ontario), it will hurt the US and worldwide economy more. By the way SARS has been compared to the virus of 1918 1920, however it kills 4% the previous one after WW1 killed 25% (the very strong) and was more contagious or so it is thought.

enough rambling but concerned the impact of SARS was looking at a hotel stock (income trust ) and though it has declined will not touch the hotel sector just in case of the worse case.

thanks
selkirk
 
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