Air Canada

[kjls04202]

Can anymore first time winners win this year? If there was any justice then Fred Funk would win this week. Still, since when did justice ever win a Golf tournament.
I just thought I would start you all off this week. Especially because at the minute it is hard to see past the front end of the market with Singh, Funk and Lonard.
There are others on my mind such as Steven Ames who has been playing real good this year and looking at Stan's stats is still in pretty good form but his course form is abysmal.
Greg Chalmers is another risky proposition who enters my mind for this week and next week. The last two named certainly fit the first time winners category.
Any thoughts any one?

 

[milpalm]

One bet for me so far - JJ Henry. Henry was 3rd last week and 10th at the Buick Open. He usually plays well at this time of the year and was 8th in this event 12 months ago. I got 77/1 at Betfair.

 

[steved]

milpalm, we must be reading the same book...
1 ew Henry 50/1, waiting to pounce on any 66/1 going...
I have spotted that Henry's problem has been his putting, but he seemed to be much better last weekend...hope he keeps putter warm for the trip to Canada. When he was 8th here last year he took 12 putts (120) more than winner (108), so I am hoping the putting has clicked into place...
Also, the course has good risk/reward par fives, and JJ is 8th in eagle stats...
5 out of 6 winners were first time winners here...
I think I will join the queue at the payout window ready for Sunday evening!

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1 unit):

Fred Funk to win 16/1 e.w. @ Sean Graham
Don't see too much value in this week's prices, but Sean Graham's offerings are a somewhat out of line with the rest. Couldn't find a large enough price for Lowery, but will take 14/1 and above for Funk. In the form of his life - three runners-up spots in his last five events, plus 4th in the PGA Championship - and has an equally impressive record on this course - 2nd in 1999 and 3rd last year. He is also benefiting from vociferous crows support at the moment. It may be four years since his last win, but he looks very likely to be in contention.

Peter Lonard to win 33/1 e.w. @ Sean Graham
Another player in excellent form. He has finished in the top-20 in nine of his last ten starts - a run that includes three majors - and finished with a closing 67 on Sunday. He did miss the cut last year, but, like Funk, his confidence is so high at the moment that he expects to contend every week.

Shigeki Maruyama to win 40/1 e.w. @ Sean Graham
Won his 2nd PGA Tour title three months ago and has secured two further top-5 finishes in high-ranking events since - 4th in the Memorial Tournament; 5th in the British Open. Very capable of winning this event, particularly as he now has course experience - 21st last year - and would have finished much higher last week had he not had his worst putting week since Hawaii. Looks a good price for someone who has already won this year.

 

[kjls04202]

After deliberating further I do not see any value amongst the front two although their chance is obvious. Lonard seems a reasonable price @ 33/1.
Of my others I am still keen on Ames and Chalmers but I have found another who appeals at the price. John Rollins. He has been in good form all year despite only having one top 5 finish. He is 13th in eagle stats( nicely pointed out steved). He was 14th last week and has been top 25 in four of the last five ups. He has no course form but at 66/1 will be my second bet.

 

[milpalm]

Difficult to ignore the top guys this week. I have gone for Lonard at 25/1 (Betinternet) and Lowery at 24/1 (Betfair). Both players are in fine form and should go close this week.

 

[xodale]

Agree Lowery and Funk are due a win and worth a punt in a weak field - pity my pal Rich B isn't playing

Also like Lowery v Allenby and Funk v Riley in match ups at bet365 Allenby's game looked a bit shakey last week despite good finish and Riley should lose a bit of focus after last weeks win.

 

[Myron]

1 big play for me this week

Shigeki Maruyama e/w for 10 units. This is the type of course Shigeki will revel on.

 

[steved]

some strange additions to JJ Henry for me...you have to try!
0.5 ew Couples 100/1 (Stanley).
Why is Freddie going all the way to Canada with his back? Think of the flight Fred! If he was a horse, one would be wondering why he was making the effort, unless he is still trying to drum up support for his new tour for players who are not old enough to be Seniors, but cannot make the effort required to beat Tiger...
Hope he has a good jockey on board..
0.5 ew Riegger 150/1 (VChandler)
one out of the blue, a real journeyman, in the style of last years winner..not in bad form either, with very hot putter last two rounds last week...

 

[bettingmad]

The dreaded b word just got a mention then...

Has anyone ever sent a bet to betfair but not got what they requested? They are trying to tell me I made an error yesterday transposing my stake and price but I am convinced I sent the correct details.... (can't say what happened only just finished wiping the last set of tears away... don't want to start flooding again)

 

[Myron]

Couples has withdrawn

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Vijay Singh to beat Robert Allenby -111 @ BetandWin
Can't pick Vijay for the outrights again as he's still finding it difficult to stay in the top-5, let alone win, but his form over the last two weeks has been good and this looks an attractive price when it is generally -150 everywhere else.

Vijay Singh to beat Steve Lowery -155@ Five Dimes [2 units]
Leap of faith with the head-to-head stats here. Everything points to a good week for Lowery - current form and course form - but he has fared poorly when playing in the same tournaments as Vijay. The Fijian has a 15-4 head-to-head lead over Lowery in the past 12 months and 4-1 lead over the past 3 months, with the only defeat being by just two shots last week. Lowery may blow hot or cold, but Singh is simply the better player.

Joel Edwards to beat J.J. Henry +100 @ Victor Chandler
A 3rd place finish in the lesser Reno-Tahoe Open is presumably the reason why Edwards is the underdog in this matchup. But Edwards was playing in the NEC Invitational because he is the better player and his record in this event is excellent. He finished 12th and 13th in his two previous starts before winning this event last year.

Steve Elkington to beat Graeme McDowell +110 @ Sportingbet [2 units]
Don't understand this price. McDowell did finish ahead of Elkington last week, but he was only 52nd and missed the cut in his only other start on the PGA Tour - the 2002 Houston Open. McDowell may have made a few headlines when he won the Scandinavian Masters, but it is another thing altogether to bring that form to this Tour. Elkington won't win this week, but should finish in the top-30 to win this matchup.

Bob May to beat Esteban Toledo +105 @ Moneyplays or GoTo Casino
May has been putting some good finishes together in the past couple of months with a number of top-20 finishes and should have a decent week with a top-30 finish on this course last year. Opposing Toledo who tends to either finish in the top-10 or a very long way down the leaderboard. Good for outrights, but opposable for matchups.

 

[lostinamerica]

I have a reputation for showing up at the last minute, and that is not limited to placing wagers. It means I frequently have to offer excuses, and
today the situation was exacerbated when I couldn't make up my mind on Maruyama, and then I had a problem with my computer (or their system) in placing and confirming accurate wagers at 5dimes (small potatoes stuff that is not among my posted plays).

It also turns out that for the second straight week, my futures selections on the U.S. and/or European Tours look a lot like Stan's (while the matchups look nothing alike). I like knowing there is a chance that my hard work might take me to some of the places Stanley frequents.

OUTRIGHTS:

Fred Funk(14/1) for 0.20* e.w. @ 5dimes
Playing with such infectious joy that he almost seems due a win. While nothing this good can last forever, the intersection with his recent course form of this magnitude clearly places him at the top of this field.

Peter Lonard(25/1) for 0.20* e.w. @ 5dimes
I hope I've had him ahead of the curve in order to now catch him at the right moment before an almost inevitable lull catches him. Lousy odds.

Shigeki Maruyama(33/1) for 0.15* e.w. @ Bet365
I just couldn't find a good reason to leave him off my card.

David Gossett(100/1) for 0.15* e.w. @ Bet365
Not much respect in that number, with Geiberger and Parnevik @ 50/1, Baddeley and Quinney @ 100/1, etc. What looks like a kind of a tough pairing on Thursday/Friday might actually set just the right tone.

AND THE REST for 1*:

Weir(6/5) over Parnevik/Paulson (Thursday) @ Bet365
Calcavecchia(-125) over Parnevik (Tournament) @ Infinity
I don't particularly like singling out Parnevik as the opposition, but that's where I ended up.

GL

 

[Myron]

Shigeki looks good after 1 round

 

[bettingmad]

Must be an error....
Eurobet have one off the lead Allenby at 25/1 (4/1 bet365)

Later...
Must be yesterday's prices... tried to partake of a little interest... and got event closed.

 

[Stanley]

Mid-point update:

Singh/Allenby Trails by 6
Singh/Lowery Trails by 5
Edwards/Henry Leads by 1
Elkington/McDowell LOST by 10
May/Toledo LOST by 7

Funk 19th
Lonard 2nd
Maruyama 12th

Back to proper PGA Tour form after last week's sweep in the matchups! Elk started with a triple-bogey and gave up en route to an 80. Vijay will have to improve considerably if some respectability is to be gained with this week's matchups, though with three chances of a reward on the outrights, he may be forgiven this week.

Off for a few days sun, sea & sand, so will update when I get back on Tuesday night :toast:

 

[xodale]

Hard to bear Lowery losing to Craig Parry lookalike Sauers - I think Parry donned a curly 70s style hairpiece to record back to back robberies