Alfred Dunhill Championship

[Stanley]

Round 1 play (6pts):

Robert Rock to beat George Coetzee +138 @ Boyle Sports [also available @ SkyBet and Bet365]
Coetzee is the home player and is under a degree of pressure from home expectation as one of the country's rising stars, but his record at Leopard Creek is not particularly impressive: 18th, 45th and mc, averaging 71.80 around this course. By contrast, Rock has finished 17th, 14th, 2nd, 4th and 8th in the last five years here, averaging almost two shots per round better than Coetzee. With Rock's recent form just as good as Coetzee's there is little other than home advantage to explain these odds.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Rock tb Van Zyl -110; Finch tb Wakefield -111; Velasco tb Wiesberger -110; Drysdale tb Fleetwood +100; Van Zyl tb Coetzee G +100; Rock tb Hugo -167; Rock tb Storm -120; Drysdale tb Hugo -130; Brier tb Korhonen -120]

 

[Stanley]

Round 2 play (4pts):

Hennie Otto to beat James Kruger +110 @ Bet365 [also available @ SkyBet]
Opposing the first round leader who is 0-for-3 in terms of holding onto a lead for another 18 holes when leading after the 1st round; 0-for-3 when leading after the 2nd round; and 0-for-1 when leading after three rounds. Otto has a very good record on this course, including being a former winner here, and won in South Africa last month; he can certainly maintain his first round momentum that saw him finish the day in 12th place.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Fichardt tb Kruger +138; Zanotti tb Goya +100; Hugo tb Kruger +100; Kingston tb Martin -120; Coetzee G tb Van Zyl -120; Zanotti tb Little -125]

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 play (4pts):

Felipe Aguilar to beat James Kruger +105 @ 5Dimes and SkyBet [available generally]
Opposing Kruger who now has a four-shot lead after 36 holes and so is opposed on the same basis as yesterday. Otto should have secured a push today, but took five on the last hole. Aguilar should far better tomorrow; he has a good record from this position and finished 3rd in the Portugal Masters in his penultimate start when also having jumped up the leaderboard to be 2nd after 36 holes.

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 play (2pts):

Fabrizio Zanotti to beat Vaughn Groenewald -138 @ Bet365 [available generally]
Impressive performance by Groenewald to be 11th after 54 holes considering that his previous record in co-sanctioned events is 17 missed cuts from 21 starts, but a six at the last hole today may be an indication that the pressure of being near the lead in such a big event in his career may have an effect on his game tomorrow. Zanotti can cope with the pressure much better as shown by his victory in the Carlos Franco Invitational last time out and should beat a player over 800 places lower in the World Rankings.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Whiteford tb Murray -120; Sluiter tb Norris -130; McLean tb McGuigan -120; Korhonen tb Price -105; Storm tb Fichardt -105; Pavan tb Fichardt -105; Aguilar tb Mulroy +100]