Alfred Dunhill Championship

[Stanley]

Round 1 plays (2pts):

Gregory Bourdy to beat Marc Warren -111 @ Bet365
Opposing a player who finished 149th (of 156) last year, despite entering the event in decent form with finishes of 5th, 18th and 38th in his three previous starts. Bourdy has finished in the top-15 in two of four previous visits to Leopard Creek and has finished ahead of Warren in five of their last seven common events.

Peter Lawrie to beat Marc Warren -110 @ 5Dimes
Lawrie hasn't shown the same form on this course as Bourdy, though he does have one top-20 finish in four previous visits, but he is in even better form than the Frenchman: he had finished 4th and 14th in his previous starts before last week's weather-affected Nelson Mandela Championship. He appears to be another player worth backing against Warren.

Jaco Van Zyl to beat Branden Grace +125 @ Boyle Sports
Grace gets the favourite's odds in this matchup as he has won five times in 2012, but he has a very poor record at Leopard Creek. In four previous visits, he has missed the cut three times and the one time that he made the cut, he finished outside the top-50. With a 3rd place finish at this venue in 2011 alone, Van Zyl is worthy of consideration in this matchup. With finishes of 2nd and 8th in his last two starts, Van Zyl may not be such a large underdog afterall.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Lee tb Gagli -110; Kingston tb Versfeld +100]

 

[Stanley]

Round 2 plays (2pts):

Charl Schwartzel to beat Branden Grace -140 @ 5Dimes
No surprise to see Schwartzel in 2nd place after the 1st round - he has finished 1st or 2nd in five of his last seven visits to Leopard Creek. And coming off finishes of 5th, 3rd and 2nd in his last three starts, he warrants being as 13/8 to win from this position. Grace's record on this course was documented above and he only beat Van Zyl with a three-shot swing in the last two holes. He should find Schwartzel a much tougher opponent.

Charl Schwartzel to beat George Coetzee -152 @ Pinnacle [also available @ Stan James, BetVictor and Boyle Sports]
Coetzee may even be a tougher opponent than Grace, but in neither his current form or his course form does he even come close to Schwartzel. His stats from today were also worse than those of Schwartzel in terms of driving distance, driving accuracy, green in regulation and putts per round. That doesn't leave much of a sign that he will able to reverse the tables tomorrow.

Robert Rock to beat Kristoffer Broberg -150 @ Paddy Power
Obviously, he can't compare to Schwartzel, but Rock is another course specialist: in the last five years, he has finished 17th, 14th, 2nd, 8th and 38th here. He now lies 12th after the 1st round and warrants being a strong favourite against course rookie Broberg who caused quite a sensation on the Challenge Tour this year, but has struggled to transfer that form to the main Tour since he won his 'battlefield promotion' - three missed cuts and a best finish of 27th in six events.

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 plays (4pts):

Steve Webster to beat Scott Jamieson +100 @ Bet365
Both players have carried over their form from last week's 36-hole weather-affected event. They finished 2nd and 1st, respectively, last week and are currently 4th and 8th this week. For Webster, he has played like a top-10 player, ranking 1st this week in greens in regulation and scrambling (plus 5th in driving distance and 21st in driving accuracy), whereas Jamieson ranks 39th in greens in regulation so his ball-striking is clearly not as good as the Englishman's this week. The other issue to take into the weekend is the fatigue factor. It may only have been a 36-hole event last week, but it was his first Tour win and it is very difficult to win back-to-back for even the most seasoned of win veterans.

Danny Willett to beat Thomas Aiken +105 @ 5Dimes
With just one top-20 finish in his last 13 starts and with a record at Leopard Creek that reads four finishes outside the top-50 in the last six years, there is little reason to expect a major improvement from Aiken over the weekend from his current 52nd place position. Willett has shown the much better form recently and is value at these odds.

Joachim B. Hansen to beat Espen Kofstad +110 @ BetVictor [available generally]
These two were 4th and 1st on the Challenge Tour Rankings last year and so earned their Tour Card for the main Tour for 2013. On that basis, Kojstad has been awarded odds favouritism in this matchup, but it is difficult to argue against a player who finished in the top-3 three times in the last four events of the Challenge Tour season. Again, the value should be with the underdog in this 18-hole matchup.

[unofficial rd3 system play: Sterne tb Rock +105]

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 plays (4pts):

David Drysdale to beat John Parry +100 @ William Hill
Parry won the European Tour Qualifying School two weeks ago so has form coming into this event, but he had missed the cut here on both previous visits whereas Drysdale finished 8th two years ago and has finished in the top-30 in four of the last six years. Currently in the top-10, Drysdale looks set to continue his form on this course and in South Africa in general.

David Drysdale to beat Danie Van Tonder -163 @ Stan James, ToteSport, Boyle Sports and BetFred
A surprise to see Van Tonder in the top-10 alongside Drysdale, he has missed his last three cuts on the Southern Africa Tour and has no previous history on this course. A short price, but it is warranted for a player ranked over 500 places higher in the World Rankings.

Steve Webster to beat Kristoffer Broberg -116 @ Bet365 [also available @ William Hill]
Backing Webster again who still ranks 1st in greens in regulation this week, as well as in the top-10 for both driving distance and driving accuracy. Broberg is alongside Webster in 3rd place, but given that his best position after any round on the European Tour this year (7 events) is 19th, he may well find it tougher going in tomorrow's round.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Schwartzel tb Grace -163; Webster tb Horne -125]