Alfred Dunhill Championship

[Stanley]

Round 1 plays (4pts unless stated):

Tjaart Van Der Walt to beat Ross McGowan -110 @ 5Dimes
McGowan lost out in a playoff for the Cape Town Open two weeks ago, but this co-sanctioned event boasts a very different field and he had shown no previous signs that he could put together a run of form: he had failed to finish inside the top-40 in any of his previous eight starts and they had been on the Challenge Tour rather than on the main Tour. Van Der Walt finished 7th in Cape Town so he has the form to compete this week and, having made the cut every time has played in this event in the last decade, the South African looks more likely to carry over his form from Cape Town.

Nacho Elvira to beat Oliver Wilson -120 @ 5Dimes [2pts]
Opposing Wilson who won the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, but has failed to finish inside the top-40 in any of his other previous 12 events or in the top-30 in any of his other previous 21 events. That makes it very unlikely that he will repeat his one golden week from the other Alfred Dunhill event on this Tour and so can be opposed with a player who has made his last nine cuts.

 

[Stanley]

Round 2 play (4pts):

Thomas Aiken to beat Richard Sterne -105 @ Bet365 [also available @ SkyBet]
Two players just outside the top-50 after rd1, but it is Aiken who has the form to improve on that position in rd2. Whereas Sterne has finished inside the top-50 in just one of his last six starts, Aiken has done so in five of his last six starts, including 4th last time out in the Cape Town Open. He recovered well from a seven in the middle of his round and should be higher up the leaderboard tomorrow.

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 plays (2pts):

Scott Jamieson to beat Johan Carlsson -110 @ Coral [available generally]
Two players in 15th place at the cut, but this is an unfamiliar position for Carlsson who hasn't been inside the top-25 at the cut in any event since February (21 events) and has finished an event inside the top-30 just once in that period. Naturally, Jamieson dominates the h2h stats over the weekend, leading him 9-2-0 over rd3 and rd4 this year and Jamieson does have the form to convert this opportunity - he has four top-10 finishes since July.

Francesco Molinari to beat Branden Grace -115 @ 5Dimes [available generally]
Opposing Grace who is leading an event after 36 holes for the first time in over two years. On that occasion (2012 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship), he also had a five-shot lead at this stage, but his lead shrank with each successive round and with seven holes to play he had been caught after consecutive bogeys. That points to a defensive round from Grace tomorrow and a good opportunity to Molinari to close the gap.

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 play (6pts):

Lee Slattery to beat Craig Lee -105 @ 5Dimes
Easy to oppose a player who is currently 21st, but has struggled from this position recently - he has been inside the top-25 at the start of the final round on 11 occasions since October last year and failed to break 70 in any of those final rounds, plus he has failed to finish inside the top-30 in any of this last eight starts. Slattery has been in much better form - three top-15 finishes in his last eight starts - and has hit more fairways and greens than Lee so far this week; he shouldn't be the underdog in this matchup.

 

[aryshia]

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