A few early outright plays where I believe firms have overpriced
Goosen 10-1 Ladbrokes
Immelman 50-1 UK Betting
Wall 66-1 Firststake
Goosen 10-1 Ladbrokes
Immelman 50-1 UK Betting
Wall 66-1 Firststake
Alfred Dunhill PGA
- Thread starter Ian
- Start date
The 10-1 Goosen had disappeared by this morning, hardly surprrising as he has finished 4th,3rd and 4th here recently and warmed up well with a joint 2nd at the weekend
Match bet
McGinley over Faldo -110 Stanley or -111 Lads
McGinley is the model of consistency and normally plays well early in the year, whereas Faldo is a shadow of his former self and missed the cut badly here 2 years ago
Match bet
McGinley over Faldo -110 Stanley or -111 Lads
McGinley is the model of consistency and normally plays well early in the year, whereas Faldo is a shadow of his former self and missed the cut badly here 2 years ago
i am new to this and only back golf on the spreads.
this week i have backed
a sell of a scott at 10 with hills
and a buy of finishing position at 23 of d frost
any comments
this week i have backed
a sell of a scott at 10 with hills
and a buy of finishing position at 23 of d frost
any comments
Welcome ag
An explanation of spread betting might be good idea as some people probably don't understand it. Look forward to your input
An explanation of spread betting might be good idea as some people probably don't understand it. Look forward to your input
- Feb 12, 2000
- 10,652
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ag
My only comment is please explain. As Ian stated, I for one do not know what that means.
Looking forward to your input.
Just when I thought I was getting the hang of this.
------------------
Sic 'em
dawgball
[This message has been edited by dawgball (edited 01-17-2001).]
[This message has been edited by dawgball (edited 01-17-2001).]
My only comment is please explain. As Ian stated, I for one do not know what that means.
Looking forward to your input.
Just when I thought I was getting the hang of this.
------------------
Sic 'em
dawgball
[This message has been edited by dawgball (edited 01-17-2001).]
[This message has been edited by dawgball (edited 01-17-2001).]
basically there are 3 types of spread bet.
1 - finishing position. a firm will quote a "spread" - say 19-22. they believe that player will finish around 20th. if you think he will do better you SELL at 19. if worse you BUY at 22.
if you sold and he finishes 4th, you win 15 times your stake (19-4 x stake) but if he finishes 40th you lose (40-19) 21 times your stake. yu can of course oppose by buying, the results work in reverse
note the max limit set on this bet is 50 so any player over 49th or that misses the cut is given a score of 50
Match bet - as it says. player A may be 1-2.5 favourite over B. if you fancy A to win by 3 or more you BUY at 2.5. if he wins by 8 you win 8-2.5 = 5.5 times stake. but if he loses by 8 you lose 10.5 as you add the 8 strokes plus the oriinal hcap. obviously you can sell the favourite at 1 and win or lose accordingly.
finally index's
firms give prices for 7 players, usually the most prominent. they award 50pts for who is best of the 7, 25 for 2nd 10 for 3rd and 0 for the rest.
a typical set of prices is
20-23 for els for example.
12-15 for furyk
down to 7-10 for appleby
you can back a player by buying his buy quote or effectively back every other player by selling a sell price.
the beauty of spread betting is
1 you can oppose as well as back someone.
2, you can close the bet in running if it is going well and you want a quick profit, believing it may come back towards the initial quote or of course to cut your losses.
i would suggest you visit http://www.sportingindex.com for examples. follow the prices each day over the sony and you will geta better feel than i can give here
the other beauty is the spread, ie the 19-22 and the 1-2.5 is the firms profit, they dont care if you win every week because as long as they balance the books then their profit is the amount in between the buy and sell prices. accounts are never closed.
1 - finishing position. a firm will quote a "spread" - say 19-22. they believe that player will finish around 20th. if you think he will do better you SELL at 19. if worse you BUY at 22.
if you sold and he finishes 4th, you win 15 times your stake (19-4 x stake) but if he finishes 40th you lose (40-19) 21 times your stake. yu can of course oppose by buying, the results work in reverse
note the max limit set on this bet is 50 so any player over 49th or that misses the cut is given a score of 50
Match bet - as it says. player A may be 1-2.5 favourite over B. if you fancy A to win by 3 or more you BUY at 2.5. if he wins by 8 you win 8-2.5 = 5.5 times stake. but if he loses by 8 you lose 10.5 as you add the 8 strokes plus the oriinal hcap. obviously you can sell the favourite at 1 and win or lose accordingly.
finally index's
firms give prices for 7 players, usually the most prominent. they award 50pts for who is best of the 7, 25 for 2nd 10 for 3rd and 0 for the rest.
a typical set of prices is
20-23 for els for example.
12-15 for furyk
down to 7-10 for appleby
you can back a player by buying his buy quote or effectively back every other player by selling a sell price.
the beauty of spread betting is
1 you can oppose as well as back someone.
2, you can close the bet in running if it is going well and you want a quick profit, believing it may come back towards the initial quote or of course to cut your losses.
i would suggest you visit http://www.sportingindex.com for examples. follow the prices each day over the sony and you will geta better feel than i can give here
the other beauty is the spread, ie the 19-22 and the 1-2.5 is the firms profit, they dont care if you win every week because as long as they balance the books then their profit is the amount in between the buy and sell prices. accounts are never closed.
Preview & plays ...
The first event of the year for the European (read 'everywhere but the US') Tour, but despite the lure of Ryder Cup money there is again only a small number of Europeans making the season-opening pilgrimage. Those that have done face a stiff challenge in the form of Houghton Golf Club. It is long at 7,300 yards, but it is not this that low scoring - the worst winning score in the past five years has been 12-under-par and that was for 54 holes - rather the change of grass from that found in Europe. The Kikuyu rough is difficult to become accustomed to, especially for the important area of scrambling, and the Bermuda greens are common in South Africa, but not in Europe.
It should suggest that the Europeans will struggle this week, but they did take the first three places in the rain-shortened event last year and Sven Struver won in 1996, again in a rain-shortened event. So rather than opt for the single figure odds on Retief Goosen or the marginally double figure odds on Mark McNulty who has not had a place finish on this course since 1995, the first outright pick is Phillip Price. He finished 2nd last year and had been 6th in 1998, He comes off his best-ever season which included a 2nd place in WGC NEC Invitational and is one of the best putters on the European Tour. Known as good overall player from tee to green, he has shown that he can cope with Bermuda greens and will fully exploit their near-perfect surfaces.
The two other outright plays are home-grown though as it is here where the value lies. Nico van Rensburg finished in 3rd place back in 1997 and 10th two years ago; he won on the South African Tour last year and had three further top-5 finishes on the Davidoff Tour, while at the same time missing only one cut from 25 events in 2000. At extremely generous odds, he looks a good value play having already won three events in the last two years. The other is Simon Hobday who was tipped last week but was blown away in the 2nd round afternoon gales. That can be discounted somewhat and the fact remains that he has finished in the top-five in 21% of his starts in the last two years. With a good bounce-back record - six of his nine top-5 finishes in the last two followed finishes outside the top-20 in the previous event - he would be a very profitable play if he managed another top-5 position.
Outright plays:
Phillip Price to win 20/1 e/w @ First Stake
Nico van Rensburg to win 66/1 e/w @ Ladbrokes
Simon Hobday to win 125/1 e/w @ Surrey
Will have 72-hole plays up soon
Dawgball, easiest way to describe 'spread betting' is that is the principle on which the golf contest is run. The more your selection wins, the more you win and vice-versa. Similar to 'Action Points' at WSEX for the NFL, though you can have spread betting on virtually anything, e.g. finishing positions, performance indices, etc.
The first event of the year for the European (read 'everywhere but the US') Tour, but despite the lure of Ryder Cup money there is again only a small number of Europeans making the season-opening pilgrimage. Those that have done face a stiff challenge in the form of Houghton Golf Club. It is long at 7,300 yards, but it is not this that low scoring - the worst winning score in the past five years has been 12-under-par and that was for 54 holes - rather the change of grass from that found in Europe. The Kikuyu rough is difficult to become accustomed to, especially for the important area of scrambling, and the Bermuda greens are common in South Africa, but not in Europe.
It should suggest that the Europeans will struggle this week, but they did take the first three places in the rain-shortened event last year and Sven Struver won in 1996, again in a rain-shortened event. So rather than opt for the single figure odds on Retief Goosen or the marginally double figure odds on Mark McNulty who has not had a place finish on this course since 1995, the first outright pick is Phillip Price. He finished 2nd last year and had been 6th in 1998, He comes off his best-ever season which included a 2nd place in WGC NEC Invitational and is one of the best putters on the European Tour. Known as good overall player from tee to green, he has shown that he can cope with Bermuda greens and will fully exploit their near-perfect surfaces.
The two other outright plays are home-grown though as it is here where the value lies. Nico van Rensburg finished in 3rd place back in 1997 and 10th two years ago; he won on the South African Tour last year and had three further top-5 finishes on the Davidoff Tour, while at the same time missing only one cut from 25 events in 2000. At extremely generous odds, he looks a good value play having already won three events in the last two years. The other is Simon Hobday who was tipped last week but was blown away in the 2nd round afternoon gales. That can be discounted somewhat and the fact remains that he has finished in the top-five in 21% of his starts in the last two years. With a good bounce-back record - six of his nine top-5 finishes in the last two followed finishes outside the top-20 in the previous event - he would be a very profitable play if he managed another top-5 position.
Outright plays:
Phillip Price to win 20/1 e/w @ First Stake
Nico van Rensburg to win 66/1 e/w @ Ladbrokes
Simon Hobday to win 125/1 e/w @ Surrey
Will have 72-hole plays up soon
Dawgball, easiest way to describe 'spread betting' is that is the principle on which the golf contest is run. The more your selection wins, the more you win and vice-versa. Similar to 'Action Points' at WSEX for the NFL, though you can have spread betting on virtually anything, e.g. finishing positions, performance indices, etc.
ag
Surprised you are expecting Frost to have a bad week, over the last 4 years his record of high finishes here is very good bar 1 m/c
Just a quick word of warning for anyone interested in spread betting it should come with a health warning as the markets can be very volatile (although in golf it is not so bad)
Surprised you are expecting Frost to have a bad week, over the last 4 years his record of high finishes here is very good bar 1 m/c
Just a quick word of warning for anyone interested in spread betting it should come with a health warning as the markets can be very volatile (although in golf it is not so bad)
72-hole plays:
Paul McGinley to beat Nick Faldo -111 @ Ladbrokes
5th last year for McGinley who has been a regular visitor to South Africa in recent years - worst finish 38th - should be too consistent and more able to cope with the local conditions than Faldo who has only played in this event once - he missed the cut in 1999
Phillip Price to beat Trevor Immelman -125 @ First Stake
Top pick against a rising star. Immelman won the Vodacom Players Championship a month ago, but he is not yet on a par with a rising world-class star who has credentials on this course
Nico van Rensburg to beat Jeev Milka Singh -120 @ DAS
Singh may have been in the top-10 here the last two seasons, but his game has been in the doldrums of late. He was 62nd in the South African Tour event last week and that was preceded by one 12th place and five missed cuts and a first round withdrawal.
Paul McGinley to beat Nick Faldo -111 @ Ladbrokes
5th last year for McGinley who has been a regular visitor to South Africa in recent years - worst finish 38th - should be too consistent and more able to cope with the local conditions than Faldo who has only played in this event once - he missed the cut in 1999
Phillip Price to beat Trevor Immelman -125 @ First Stake
Top pick against a rising star. Immelman won the Vodacom Players Championship a month ago, but he is not yet on a par with a rising world-class star who has credentials on this course
Nico van Rensburg to beat Jeev Milka Singh -120 @ DAS
Singh may have been in the top-10 here the last two seasons, but his game has been in the doldrums of late. He was 62nd in the South African Tour event last week and that was preceded by one 12th place and five missed cuts and a first round withdrawal.
Quite pleased that i was proved right by frost. his stats showed that he is on a downhill slope and only his love affair with his home country could have made him improve to the level of the past.
it didnt and he missed the cut by 2 strokes.
also correct with Azinger in the states, once again stats showed that bar the 2000 win he had no real statistical reason to do well at this event since the course toughening.
it didnt and he missed the cut by 2 strokes.
also correct with Azinger in the states, once again stats showed that bar the 2000 win he had no real statistical reason to do well at this event since the course toughening.
Superb viewing with Scott just edging out Rose at the last
Thank god for those 5th place terms as Wall just scrapes it at 66-1
Goosen did his usual "I'll just scrape through to the weekend and then start playing" racing through the field to finish T7th
Unfortunately on the match bet McGinley played well but Faldo just about held it together over the 4 rounds, whether he is back I wouldn't like to say, I still wouldn't be in a hurry to support him
Forgot to add
Nice calls ag you should expect a nice return from your spreads this week
[This message has been edited by Ian (edited 01-21-2001).]
Thank god for those 5th place terms as Wall just scrapes it at 66-1
Goosen did his usual "I'll just scrape through to the weekend and then start playing" racing through the field to finish T7th
Unfortunately on the match bet McGinley played well but Faldo just about held it together over the 4 rounds, whether he is back I wouldn't like to say, I still wouldn't be in a hurry to support him
Forgot to add
Nice calls ag you should expect a nice return from your spreads this week
[This message has been edited by Ian (edited 01-21-2001).]
Final update: 0-3 and -3.56 units
A horrible blank. Rensburg had an awful week to miss the cut by a mile, while McGinley did at least make the cut but although he finished 16th, it was still seven shots behind a resurgent Faldo. The hard defeat to take was on Price. He missed the cut by one, but a four-shot lead in the 1st round disappeared as Immelman birdied four of his last five holes to make the cut by one, defeating Price by the same margin
Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units
Rensburg and Price missed the cut, while Hobday finished in 34th place. He had figured on the leaderboard on the 2nd day, but this finished as a week to forget.
Glad one of us got something out of this event Ian. And ag, nice start, hope you keep them winners & spread betting strategies coming
A horrible blank. Rensburg had an awful week to miss the cut by a mile, while McGinley did at least make the cut but although he finished 16th, it was still seven shots behind a resurgent Faldo. The hard defeat to take was on Price. He missed the cut by one, but a four-shot lead in the 1st round disappeared as Immelman birdied four of his last five holes to make the cut by one, defeating Price by the same margin
Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units
Rensburg and Price missed the cut, while Hobday finished in 34th place. He had figured on the leaderboard on the 2nd day, but this finished as a week to forget.
Glad one of us got something out of this event Ian. And ag, nice start, hope you keep them winners & spread betting strategies coming
