Alfred Dunhill - South Africa

Ian

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Initial thoughts are - good luck in narrowing it down to 3 Stan
2 Main selections are
Hugo - 50/1 Ladbrokes - played well last week and possibly better on this weeks longer course
Maritz - 66/1 Bet365 - cannot leave him out after going so close last week - again his big hitting should see him perform better than last week
Other selections to reduced stakes
Brad Vaughan - 100/1 Coral
Dredge - 100/1 Multisports
Dyson - 66/1 Sporting Odds
One last selection - BettingMad this is a genuine 200/1 shot - Doug McGuigan - 9th last week Sporting Odds didn't notice!
 

bettingmad

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My initial thought is that Tim Clark won so impressively last week that I just have to have a little each way.
If he won and I didn't bet on him I would feel stupid for missing a 40/1 (Coral) winner but he could just as easily miss the cut which would be more in line with some of his previous form. Though he is also a buy.com winner.
you are damned if you do and damned if you don't :)

Here's one for Stanley....
How many players followed up a maiden main tour win (Euro or US) with victory the following week.... I know Duval for sure and think Billy Andrade may have... and Stuart Appleby followed the win with a second..??
 
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Stanley

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Yes Andrade did it in 1991 - Kemper Open (30 May-2 June) & Buick Classic (6-9 July)

Can't think of any others in recent years though Tiger did go close ...

Las Vegas Invitational 2-6 October 1996 1st
Texas Open 10-13 October 1996 3rd
Walt Disney World Classic 17-20 October 1996 1st


Can think of one for the European Tour, but it doesn't really count:

Fred Couples
Dubai Desert Classic 19-22 January 1995 1st
Johnnie Walker Classic 26-29 January 1995 1st

One who went really close did so in his first two European Tour starts:

David Park
Moroccan Open 17-20 June 1999 2nd - lost 6-hole playoff to Miguel Angel Martin after having led wire-to-wire
Compaq European Grand Prix 24-27 June 1999 1st

You've had to go back to 1980 for the last full European Tour member to achieve that:

Des Smyth
Newcastle Brown "900" Open 5-8 June 1980 1st
Cold Shield Greater Manchester Open 19-22 June 1980 1st [next Tour event]
 

Clive

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Stan James went 28/1 Webster yesterday, which was very kind of them! 22 now

Surprised to see Ladbrokes have not trimmed Hugo from 50/1...bit of an insult that...I obviously need to up my stake!! He looks very solid here.

As usual, the value seems to lie with the native SAfricans, although I accept the point that Euro have traditionally done well here.

125/1 Bradford Vaughan with Hills and Blue Sq will do nicely!
 

bettingmad

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Re David Park... that was my 'edit' I originally put him up the same as Appleby but the realised it was 2nd & 1st not 1st & 2nd
Looks like the odds are stacked against Clark :(

At http://www.sportinglife.com/zone/golf/odds/cards/cc739x.html#

I wondered if W Hill (125/1) and Ladbrokes (150/1) had read my last comment..... but on checking the sites (33/1) & (25/1) they appear to be errors on the page... but it is a useful quick guide usually.
 
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Stanley

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Outright plays

Outright plays

Steve Webster to win 20/1 e.w.? @ Surrey, BetInternet or Sporting Odds [0.5 units]
Excellent course form and closed with a storming 64 to almost snatch victory from Tim Clark last week. Top-10 in driving distance and greens in regulation, top-20 in driving accuracy last week, Webster just needs his putter to warm up a little and he'll win this event.

Martin Maritz to win 66/1 e.w. @ Surrey [0.5 units]
Can't believe that Maritz continues to be undervalued and particularly by Surrey Sports. Almost always in contention in South Africa and but for opening with two straight bogeys in the final round, he would have secured another top-5 finish. Don't expect to get this price again if he does achieve that goal.

Simon Dyson to win 66/1 e.w. @ Sporting Odds or Bet247 [0.5 units]
Just gets the nod over Jeev Milkha Singh who has a great record on this course. Dyson finished 41st last year - three sub-70 rounds were ruined by a 77 in the 3rd round - but has since finished 9th and 5th on South African soil. Nice progression and seems to be at his best outside Europe.
 

Stanley

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72-hole plays

72-hole plays

Des Terblanche to beat Warren Bennett +110 @ Camelot [0.5 units]
The wide (and wet) fairways should suit the big-hitting South African who has finished in the top-25 in the last two seasons. Bennett finished 33rd last week and that is his best performance on the Southern Africa Tour to date. Opposable, particularly with a decent price.

Roger Wessels to beat Warren Bennett -111 @ Victor Chandler [0.5 units]
Again siding with the home player who has finished no worse than 12th in his last five events, a run that includes the Volvo Masters and last week's South African Open.

Mark McNulty to beat Andrew Coltart -125 @ Easybets [0.5 units]
This course will not suit McNulty as much as Durban last week, but he can always be expected to contend in Southern Africa. Expecting a rusty performance from Coltart in his season-opening event. He hasn't played here since finishing 37th in 1997 and ended last year poorly with finishes of 70th, mc, mc, 44th (limited field).

Brian Davis to beat Paul Lawrie -110 @ Surrey [0.5 units]
This will also be Davis' first event of the year, but in contrast to Coltart he has finished in the top-10 in the last two years here and finished 2001 strongly with finishes of 13th, 3rd, 30th, 8th, 9th. Opposing Lawrie who really struggled on the greens last week en route to finishing 26th.

Steve Webster to beat Paul Lawrie -125 @ Sportingbet [0.5 units]
Have to side with the leading outright pick who got his putter working well on Sunday to finish 2nd. This course will be more suited to his length off the tee than Durban.

Steve Webster to beat Paul McGinley -105 @ Intertops
As with Coltart, I expect a rather rusty performance from McGinley this week. He does have a good record in this event, but looked very tired when playing in Japan and Hong Kong at the end of last year. Qualification for the Ryder Cup had taken its toll and this could be a more muted start to the year.

Martin Maritz to beat James Kingston -118 @ Easybets [0.5 units]
Kingston could, and maybe should, have won last week. Instead he finished 3rd. But he has a very poor record on this course. We would have to go back to 1995 to find his last top-25 finish here.

Mark McNulty to beat Justin Rose -111 @ Simon Bold [0.5 units]
Siding with the consistent McNulty over the anything but consistent Rose. He may have been born in Johannesburg and finished 2nd last year, but he had had a very poor record on this course previously and missed the cut last week.

Roger Wessels to beat Justin Rose -118 @ Easybets [0.5 units]
As above, siding with the in-form Wessels and opposing the unpredictable Rose.
 

Giraffe

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first post

first post

hi all,

First post on this board which i came across via a link on Stanleys excellent Tour Tips. That is some website you put together there Stanley and must take a lot of work to keep going.

My each way selection for the Dunhill is Sven Struver at 100/1 with Ladbrokes.com. He won this event back in 1996 and finished 9th last year. Making his reappearance for 2002 and is not the straightest of drivers but its a big price for somebody with a genuine chance.

The win selection has to be Retief Goosen. On home soil and the target golf that will be required this week suits his game. The course report saids the greens are soft and the rough is punishing so staright and accurate is whats called for. Available at 6/1.

Also recommend the following four fold 72 hole matchup bets at sportingodds:
Webster to beat Mcginley - evs
Mcnulty to beat Lawrie - 9/10
Davis to beat Howell - 4/5
Peterson to beat Rose - 11/10
 

bettingmad

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Clive,
Don't know how I missed your D Smail post.... but last year he actually managed 1st, 1st then 2nd in three weeks.
I should have remembered as I lumped on him at 7/1 after the 2nd round of the 2nd win... so it can be done ... come on Clark.. :D

P.S. (Would be rather ironic if Jerry Kelly did it this week in the US instead)
 

nakor

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Webster withdrawn?

Webster withdrawn?

Didn't see his name on the scoring list.

If so, generally outright bets are refunded, correct? (This bet made at Sports Interaction).
 

Stanley

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Mid-point update

Mid-point update

Terblanche/Bennett WON by 2
Wessels/Bennett WON by 12
McNulty/Coltart Trails by 6
Maritz/Kingston Leads by 2
McNulty/Rose Trails by 6
Wessels/Rose Leads by 3

Maritz 5th
Dyson 18th

Webster and Lawrie withdrew with an upset stomach and a bad back respectively to void three matchups and one outright play, but very satisfied with the others so far. Only McNulty has failed to deliver.
 

bettingmad

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Didn't realise until later that Tim Clark's win last week was on a course where he had won the Junior title 3 times... obviously not as well acquainted with Houghton.

Should have piggy-backed Maritz nice e/w shout! But it's only money and at least I haven't had to suffer the white knuckle ride and accompanying gauntlet of emotions down, up, up, total despair then up again.
Fasten your seat belts for next time :)
 

Stanley

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Tried to post this earlier, but page wouldn't load :confused:


Matchups: 3-3-0; -0.22 units

McNulty/Coltart LOST by 3
Maritz/Kingston WON by 8
McNulty/Rose LOST by 10
Wessels/Rose LOST by 6

Outrights: 1-1; +3.38 units

Maritz 2nd
Dyson 30th

Profitable week and have to be thankful for that! Maritz had stormed to a two-shot lead with 18 holes to go and the matchups were in profit as well. They finished losing and Maritz was 4-over-par for his final round and completely out of contention. A holed approach shot on the 14th and then a run of par-eagle-birdie to get within an eagle on the par-5 last of securing a playoff. He didn't :(

Southern Africa Tour ytd
Matchups: 9-4; +4.66 units
Outrights: 1-4; +1.88 units
 
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