Algarve Open de Portugal

[Stanley]

Will be away for most of the week with limited internet access, so no time for write-ups this week

Outright plays (0.75 units):

Bradley Dredge to win 14/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Top-10 last year and top-20 in four of five starts this year, including emphatic win at Madeira Island Open. The most in-form player in the field.

Philip Price to win 22/1 e.w. @ UKBetting
Twice a winner of this title and showed good form in the Middle East events. A class above most of this field.

David Lynn to finish in the top-five 10/1 @ SkyBet
Did gain course experience last year and has finished in top-five in two of last four events. Not a likely winner, but does contend a lot.

 

[milpalm]

Davis 25/1 (Chandler), 2nd and 11th in his last 2 starts and a top 20 finish here last year.
Lynn 40/1 (Bet365), 3rd last time out.
Forsyth 40/1 (Bet365), also 3rd in his last event and a top 10 here last year.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (0.75 units):

Gary Evans to beat Mark Foster -111 @ Paddy Power
Santiago Luna to beat James Kingston -118 @ Expekt
Santiago Luna to beat Andrew Marshall -110 @ Bet365 and Carib
Greg Owen to beat Andrew Marshall -110 @ SkyBet
Dean Robertson to beat John E. Morgan -111 @ Boyle

 

[steved]

feeling a bit shellshocked after the Masters so going for following silly (but maybe not so silly!) ew double!

Heritage - Price (40/1)
Algarve - Price (20/1)

Let's hope the price is right!

 

[lostinamerica]

TIDBITS . . . It is probably common knowledge among the sharpies around here, but a look at the archives from last year tells the tale of a weather hampered 36 hole tournament in which the last day was scrubbed, which goes a long way in explaining how and why Carl Pettersson broke through for a win here last year. And the switch on the calendar from the week before the Masters to the week after the Masters is still a significant distinction IMO even if there is not a single player in the field that played in the Masters under either scenario (I didn't check to see if that was the case) . . . There are only two par threes and two par fives on the course . . . The forecast is for deteriorating weather again this year.

OUTRIGHTS:

Nick Dougherty(50/1) for 0.60* e.w. @ Bet365
I'm drawn to and looking closest at the young guns this week. I think Nick has shown well this year with something that looks like far less than his best stuff. Maybe this week.

John E. Morgan(100/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ 5dimes
He might be enough on form to show well in what for him should seem a big debut on a small stage.

Ian Poulter(40/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
A hunch that he may be chomping at the bit to get after it, but I'm not sold on the signs as to whether his game is maturing like it seemed it might at this time last year.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

MATCHUPS (Tournament):

PARLAY Dougherty(-105) over Evans WITH Donaldson(-118) over St. Webster WITH Price(-117) over S. Hansen for 0.75* @ 5.69/1
Testing the waters on the continent with a single all-or-nothing proposition.

GL

 

[Stanley]

Mid-point update:

Evans/Foster WON by 1
Luna/Kingston Trails by 2
Luna/Marshall WON by 5
Owen/Marshall WON by 18
Robertson/Morgan LOST by 3

Dredge 6th
Price 14th
Lynn 11th

Good position at the cut with three of four matchups winning and a good position with all three outrights as Owen will surely come back to the field. Only annoyance was Robertson relinquishing a winning position with four bogeys in his last four holes.

 

[Stanley]

Final update:

Matchups: 3-2-0; +0.53 units

Luna/Kingston LOST by 13

Outrights: 1-2; -0.83 units

Dredge 2nd
Price 23rd
Lynn 8th

Break-even event with Dredge finishing one shot short of a playoff. As Brian Davis put it, "there's not a lot you can do when someone chips in three times in a round". Would have hoped for a profit from the outrights as they had all been in contention the whole tournament.

European Tour ytd
Matchups: 8-9; -1.67 units
Outrights: 2-10; -0.53 units