all my ex's live in >TEXAS OPEN

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Ok I'll start a thread with most of the Euro's pumped for the cup which I will not dabble in,hazardous for ones health in this crew as I am a minority However I will say I like pulling for the underdog

Texas Open Outrights
As noted in other thread 2 very strong contenders from Texas,Leonard with finishes oh 2nd.1st and 1st his last 3 here and Estes. After going over Stans stats will avoid Estes and may oppose in matches given right odds however have to place a little cheese on Leonard especially @ 9/1 win odds @ $plays.

Leonard 1/2 unit to win only 9/1 @ $plays

Note: Will try and update all additions on outrights-72 holes and rd matches is same thread from now on as it is easier to tally and threads are time stamped. Will note any additions with post however.Got 3 I am looking at to add place wagers on that are around 66/1 win odds currently.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
adding outrights to place 1/2 unit
top5 @ 5dimes
Lewis 18/1
Haas 10/1
to place top 4 @ Oly
Roberts 10/1
Perez 11/1

Had long list to cut this tourney and started with those had not had top 5 yet this year. All the above have had. This Perez kid is somewhat of interest. His folks live in San Antonio I believe and he has played this course many times. This track has not been kind to 1st time winners however with last one bout 6 years ago.

 

[milpalm]

Backed Leonard last year but he's too short at single figures this week. First pick is Geiberger 80/1 at Expekt. The greedy Swedes have no each way option and a ridiculous no-refund rule but I will give it go. Geiberger is in decent form and has 3 top 15 finishes in the last 5 years in this event.

 

[milpalm]

Adding one of DTB's favourites, Jay Haas. The tricky bermuda greens make course form important this week. Haas played well on bermuda in Florida when he finished 13th. He's got 2 top 5 finishes in the last 4 years at Lacantera. Missed the 66/1 at Sportingbet and had to settle for 60/1 Centrebet.

 

[milpalm]

Matt Kuchar, 50/1 Bet365. Runner-up here 12 months ago. Is a proven winner and showed a return to form last week.

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1 unit):

Justin Leonard to win 9/1 @ Moneyplays or GoTo Casino
Top-ranked in current form, course form and course compatibility, he would have been an automatic choice at 7/1 and higher. The only concerns are playing in Europe the week before and the distractions of the Ryder Cup after his memorable performance at Brookline. With the Mount Juliet course playing very easy and not at all like previous visits for the British Open, it should not be too much of a factor. If he can get a fast start on Thursday before the action at The Belfry, he looks to have a very good chance of the three-peat.

John Huston to win 33/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Not a winner last week when well-fancied to take the Tampa Bay Classic, but he is double those odds for this event and he did finish a credible 13th. The field is just as thin this week and on his favoured Bermuda greens, he should add yet another top-10 finish in the Lone Star State.

Loren Roberts to win 40/1 e.w. @ Bet365 (available generally)
Events in Texas strongly favour course specialists and Roberts is one of those. Three top-10 finishes in his last six visits suggest that putting ability on the large Bermuda greens is much more important than length off the tee and he has a good record in all the Texan events with top-10 finishes in Houston Open and Byron Nelson Classic in the last two years and a victory in the Byron Nelson Classic in 1999. Can't see him winning this week, but he has finished 2nd twice this season already and he could go close this week.

 

[steved]

in my never ending quest to pick the biggest priced winner of the year...
0.5 ew Mahan 300/1 (VChandler)..I have looked to see who this guy is...but cannot find anything...looked on Stan's database..PGA site, in Buy.com, Seniors and PGA tours...
what made me look is that he is 50/1 with Ladbrokes..and if they think he is as good as Donald/Hayes/Lewis/Tway/Herron, then 300/1 seems like some sort of value..

 

[Stanley]

Hunter Mahan was the runner-up in the U.S. Amateur to Ricky Barnes. Can't believe he's 50/1

He missed the cut in only PGA Tour start (2000 GHO).

Fuller profile:

? ? ?

Hunter Mahan

Age: 20

Residence: McKinney, Texas

College: Oklahoma State (junior)

? ? ?

Backround: Second team All-America in 2001 and first-teamer in 2002.

He won three tournaments during the collegiate season finished third at the NCAA Championship. This summer he placed fifth at the Sunnehanna Amateur, helped lead the U.S. to victory in the Palmer Cup, tied for 19th at the Porter Cup and made it to the Sweet 16 of the Western Amateur.

In 2001, he tied for 20th at the Sunnehanna and was a quarterfinalist at the Western Amateur. In 2000 he was a quarterfinalist at the U.S. Amateur, losing to eventual champion Jeff Quinney. In 1999, he won the U.S. Junior Amateur Championship as well as the Western and North & South Junior titles and the AJGA Rolex Tournament of Champions.

He was the 2002 Big 12 Conference Player of the Year; the 2001 Pac-10 Freshman of the Year; and the 1999 Golfweek and AJGA Junior Player of the Year.

 

[steved]

Thanks...I recognise the name now...not too much damage done...I was cautious as I could not see who he was...he does come from Texas...(he says hopefully...)

 

[Ian]

Been surpised at a couple of prices on Betfair and have secured 50/1 Roberts (sorry Stan! - KOD) and 160/1 Lewis. Have just been buying and trying to sell and get some "Free" bets.

 

[steved]

here is the plan...get betfair to add Mahan..go for a bit of 1000/1...then lay off in the morning when they see the 50/1 at Ladbrokes...unfortunately BF is offline, and I need to go home from work and my pc is knackered at home...but just the idea makes me feel better...

 

[bettingmad]

Anybody heard anything about Steve Elkington's health? He looked good in The Open but has disappointed since. Decent recent course form and I believe he is a Texas resident.

Hope he feels OK.... taken some 50 at Victor Chandler.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

GADZOOKS Milpalm You have pulled 2 out of my 3 from the hat. Maybe an omen? I am waiting on odds to drop.The 3rd was JL Lewis. Got some longs ones I will take gander at odds on also,Byrum if wind is in forcast,Edwards and Pernice.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

72 holes @ cascade
Huston -110 over Lehman
Lehman just back and think his mind will be miles away.
Roberts -105 over Lehman
ditto on above and if not I still like matches
=============================================
adding 72 holes @ 365 (no ties lose)
Haas -115 over Gossett
Roberts -115 over Edwards
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
adding @ 5dimes
Senden -120 over Hayes
significant rating difference-huge current form difference with Hayes only playing in 3 of last 8 events with best finish being 61st. Also being paired with Leonard and Estes 1st 2 rds should be intimidating as far as fan support. Hoping this one is over at cut.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

1st rd @ Cascade (Caution 1st rds plays have sucked of late)
Haas -110 over Beem
Lets see how Beem reacts to trip back
Roberts -115 over Elk
Elk been off for bout 3 weeks and not firing on all cyliders prior.
Like Stan said,Roberts horse for course.
=============================================
adding @ Cascade
Howell -105 over Funk
Hope the Funk stays in his Ireland funk!

 

[steved]

I think you all have it covered this week, and good luck to you..but just in case you missed something..and for no other reason (well there are a few) than none of these three have first names...
0.5 ew each
JP Hayes..100/1 (Sportingbet)
JL Lewis..100/1 (Sportingbet)
JJ Henry..40/1 (Bet Direct)

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

I think you got a live one with Henry, Steved.
some local news
http://www.mysanantonio.com/sports/

 

[steved]

I cannot see much about Henry, DTB, must be missing somethingf, but did see they tip Lonard (who isn't even playing, we all know why!)...
Watch out, that guy will jump up and bite us one day!!!

My concern with Henry is his putting, and that the biggest price is with Bet Direct...(see other thread)

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Didn't miss anything Steved. Wasn't much in there bout him,I was just going by how he looked in stats.

added some outrights/72 holes and 1st rds in their respective threads.

 

[Stanley]

Looks like your Henry bet is safe now

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Fred Funk to beat Rich Beem -111 @ Centrebet
Just think the Beem bubble may have burst and winning the PGA Championship has finally caught up with him. He missed the cut in the German Masters and finished 49th of 65 in the American Express Championship. Funk has finished in the top-30 in two of his last three Texas Opens and in six of his last ten starts in Texas; the respective figures for Beem are one and two.

Joel Edwards to beat Steve Elkington -118 @ Centrebet
He may have a good record in this event - two top-10 finishes in three starts - but his overall record in Texas is not impressive and his form since losing the playoff for the British Open is even worse: mc, 48th, 68th (of 77), mc. He may be a Texas resident, but he looks very opposable this week. This is certainly the case with Edwards who has a 3-0 head-to-head lead over Elk in the last three months, a 10-2 lead in the last twelve months and has finished in the top-20 in the last two Texas Opens.

Bob Estes to beat Steve Elkington -135 @ Intertops [2 units]
Side-stepped Estes for the outrights given concerns over playing in Ireland last week, but he can certainly finish mid-table here and beat Elk. He has secured top-10 finishes in his last two events and in last year's event, so is justifiably one of the favourites in this field.

Tom Lehman to beat J.J. Henry +100 @ Sportingbet or Sporting Odds
Will bite at these odds. Henry should make the cut, but I can't see a repeat of last year's runners-up spot. Lehman secured three top-10 finishes from five starts in June-July and has finished put in some decent performances in three high quality events. When Lehman and Henry have played in the same tournament, Lehman has prospered 2-0 in the last three months and 11-2 in the last twelve.

Loren Roberts to beat J.J. Henry -110 @ Intertops
Also siding with outright pick, Loren Roberts, to beat Henry. A fifth top-15 finish in the seven visits will be easily enough to beat Henry.

 

[steved]

Thanks (well sort of) Stan...I was looking at Lehman as well. I will try and save on my Henry bet by backing Lehman to beat him in this match...