So, let me make an important prerequisite right now that definitely factors into my considering this at all: I'm relatively broke right now (not so much I've entirely cut out sports betting :lol
, but not in great shape either. Furthermore, my book seems to give me the runaround every time I want to cash out any sizable number of dollars. Best case scenario, I figure it would take a couple weeks to get 3-4 grand into my actual bank account. With those in mind...
I bet Kansas well before the tourney to win it all at +2000 for $200, and thus have a cool 4 grand riding on them winning the title. Obviously, I could just watch it play out, cheer with all my heart, and hope luck meets opportunity and Kansas prevails and I score big time. On the other hand, I could take the (perhaps obvious) route and hedge this some by taking either Nova ML or Nova to win the title and ensure that I win something at least. Alas, I have no money in my account right now, and thus no real possibility of hedging on my own...
So, here's the rub. My friend and gambling buddy of sorts has heard my story and essentially said "Hey, if you don't want so much riding on this and need an out, you could always let me 'buy' a piece of the action... essentially hedging for me with my own friend (if Kansas wins we both win some, if they lose he loses and I win a little). With that said, obviously expected value theory says that I can't just let him "buy" part of my +2000 bet that I played in February when now Kansas is merely +400. Win or lose, in theory at least that's like free money to him.
Thus, the ($4000) question is, do I hedge, and if so how much do I want to hedge for, and then how do I come to a reasonable number to offer him that is "fair" to both of us (him getting an incredibly positive line, but me getting to hedge when I otherwise couldn't and having cash in my hand if Kansas loses vs. a big chunk in a virtual account if they win). Truthfully there's a million ways this could go. But, for example, say I wanted to hedge about 1/4th of my overall stake (so 1000 of the 4000 I stand to win). Would I offer him, say, +800 odds on Kansas to win it all? [Thus, if my math is right, I'd have to essentially "risk" (against my own initial bet) $1000 to "win" (or lose, depending on how you look at it), $250 guaranteed.) These numbers are by no means firm, we could make a number of deals/hedges/odds/scenarios/etc. (and I'd LOVE to hear suggestions), but just using my example, the following scenarios are at play:
It's all kind of a mind-fuck, but essentially it comes down to me being a broke guy with a massively high EV bet on the table and the chance to ensure myself money at the cost of giving away some of that EV. Should I take some hedge money? What are fair odds to offer him if I do? How much should I be trying to hedge if both above answers are yes? 10%? 25% Half?
Obviously this is a big one for me. So any and all help/suggestions/mathematicians much appreciated! :0003
, but not in great shape either. Furthermore, my book seems to give me the runaround every time I want to cash out any sizable number of dollars. Best case scenario, I figure it would take a couple weeks to get 3-4 grand into my actual bank account. With those in mind...I bet Kansas well before the tourney to win it all at +2000 for $200, and thus have a cool 4 grand riding on them winning the title. Obviously, I could just watch it play out, cheer with all my heart, and hope luck meets opportunity and Kansas prevails and I score big time. On the other hand, I could take the (perhaps obvious) route and hedge this some by taking either Nova ML or Nova to win the title and ensure that I win something at least. Alas, I have no money in my account right now, and thus no real possibility of hedging on my own...
So, here's the rub. My friend and gambling buddy of sorts has heard my story and essentially said "Hey, if you don't want so much riding on this and need an out, you could always let me 'buy' a piece of the action... essentially hedging for me with my own friend (if Kansas wins we both win some, if they lose he loses and I win a little). With that said, obviously expected value theory says that I can't just let him "buy" part of my +2000 bet that I played in February when now Kansas is merely +400. Win or lose, in theory at least that's like free money to him.
Thus, the ($4000) question is, do I hedge, and if so how much do I want to hedge for, and then how do I come to a reasonable number to offer him that is "fair" to both of us (him getting an incredibly positive line, but me getting to hedge when I otherwise couldn't and having cash in my hand if Kansas loses vs. a big chunk in a virtual account if they win). Truthfully there's a million ways this could go. But, for example, say I wanted to hedge about 1/4th of my overall stake (so 1000 of the 4000 I stand to win). Would I offer him, say, +800 odds on Kansas to win it all? [Thus, if my math is right, I'd have to essentially "risk" (against my own initial bet) $1000 to "win" (or lose, depending on how you look at it), $250 guaranteed.) These numbers are by no means firm, we could make a number of deals/hedges/odds/scenarios/etc. (and I'd LOVE to hear suggestions), but just using my example, the following scenarios are at play:
- Kansas wins it all, I make $3000, he makes $1000, and I lose "in value" $750 by hedging.
- Kansas loses, I make $250 (so a meager $50 profit but much more than zero) and he loses said $250.
- Kansas wins Saturday night, and then this whole conundrum re-presents itself for the finals with or without me having taken his hedge opportunity.
It's all kind of a mind-fuck, but essentially it comes down to me being a broke guy with a massively high EV bet on the table and the chance to ensure myself money at the cost of giving away some of that EV. Should I take some hedge money? What are fair odds to offer him if I do? How much should I be trying to hedge if both above answers are yes? 10%? 25% Half?
Obviously this is a big one for me. So any and all help/suggestions/mathematicians much appreciated! :0003
