American Express Championship
- Thread starter lostinamerica
- Start date
Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)
Luke Donald to win 50/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Looking at higher-odds players with the top-5 in the World Rankings struggling this week. Els and Goosen are not playing, Woods has ribs and back injuries, while Singh and Mickelson are a long way from the peak of their game. But given the layout of the course, it would have been two-time U.S. Open winner, Retief Goosen, who would have been strongly fancied. The course owner has aspirations for Harding Park to be a future U.S. Open site and the course - short at only 7,100 yards - is set up that way. The fairways have been narrowed and cut to only 1/2 inch, the rough doubled in length and the greens will be hard and very fast. Only the intervention of the weather will stop this becoming a stern test of golf. That leads perfectly to Luke Donald whose 'fairways and greens' approach will be ideal this week. His form is good, having led the BMW International Open heading into the final round and finishing 4th in the European Masters in his last two events, and he also held the lead after the second round of the last WGC event, the NEC Invitational in August. He doesn't convert enough of his chances to win, but the odds more than compensate for this and this is certainly a course that suits.
Kenny Perry to win 50/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
It is difficult to categorise Perry to the same degree. He ranks inside the top-10 in driving distance on the PGA Tour, but has finished 2nd, 1st, 12th and 1st at the Colonial in the last four years, a course of similar setup and length. The key is that he ranks 2nd in greens in regulation on Tour and can adjust his game to suit virtually any course. That can explain why he hasn't finished outside the top-25 in any event since May and that could be put down to a letdown from winning the Colonial the week before. In his last competitive game, he beat Mark Hensby 4&3 in the singles in the Presidents Cup, in his last strokeplay event, he closed with a 63 to finish 7th in the Buick Championship and in his last WGC event, he held the lead heading into the final round. These looks large odds for such a player.
Justin Leonard to win 66/1 e.w. available generally
The last time Perry finished outside the top-25, the St Jude Classic, Leonard was a wire-to-wire winner that week after opening with a 62. And there is evidence that he is returning to that form again. Since finishing 19th in the NEC Invitational, he has finished 15th in the Deutsche Bank Championship and 9th in the 84 Lumber Classic and importantly in terms of this week, he ranked 17th, 11th and 3rd in driving accuracy in those events. At the 84 Lumber Classic, not only did he hit 82% of fairways, but 69% of greens in regulation to rank 5th that week. He is playing well, has a game well-suited to this course setup and was a winner in California earlier this year (Bob Hope Chrysler Classic). He is also the third selection that ranks inside the top-10 in Scoring Average on the Tour this year so odds of 50/1 and above do represent value.
Luke Donald to win 50/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Looking at higher-odds players with the top-5 in the World Rankings struggling this week. Els and Goosen are not playing, Woods has ribs and back injuries, while Singh and Mickelson are a long way from the peak of their game. But given the layout of the course, it would have been two-time U.S. Open winner, Retief Goosen, who would have been strongly fancied. The course owner has aspirations for Harding Park to be a future U.S. Open site and the course - short at only 7,100 yards - is set up that way. The fairways have been narrowed and cut to only 1/2 inch, the rough doubled in length and the greens will be hard and very fast. Only the intervention of the weather will stop this becoming a stern test of golf. That leads perfectly to Luke Donald whose 'fairways and greens' approach will be ideal this week. His form is good, having led the BMW International Open heading into the final round and finishing 4th in the European Masters in his last two events, and he also held the lead after the second round of the last WGC event, the NEC Invitational in August. He doesn't convert enough of his chances to win, but the odds more than compensate for this and this is certainly a course that suits.
Kenny Perry to win 50/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
It is difficult to categorise Perry to the same degree. He ranks inside the top-10 in driving distance on the PGA Tour, but has finished 2nd, 1st, 12th and 1st at the Colonial in the last four years, a course of similar setup and length. The key is that he ranks 2nd in greens in regulation on Tour and can adjust his game to suit virtually any course. That can explain why he hasn't finished outside the top-25 in any event since May and that could be put down to a letdown from winning the Colonial the week before. In his last competitive game, he beat Mark Hensby 4&3 in the singles in the Presidents Cup, in his last strokeplay event, he closed with a 63 to finish 7th in the Buick Championship and in his last WGC event, he held the lead heading into the final round. These looks large odds for such a player.
Justin Leonard to win 66/1 e.w. available generally
The last time Perry finished outside the top-25, the St Jude Classic, Leonard was a wire-to-wire winner that week after opening with a 62. And there is evidence that he is returning to that form again. Since finishing 19th in the NEC Invitational, he has finished 15th in the Deutsche Bank Championship and 9th in the 84 Lumber Classic and importantly in terms of this week, he ranked 17th, 11th and 3rd in driving accuracy in those events. At the 84 Lumber Classic, not only did he hit 82% of fairways, but 69% of greens in regulation to rank 5th that week. He is playing well, has a game well-suited to this course setup and was a winner in California earlier this year (Bob Hope Chrysler Classic). He is also the third selection that ranks inside the top-10 in Scoring Average on the Tour this year so odds of 50/1 and above do represent value.
Let`s give these 4 a shot....
4 bombs...Looking to get lucky again :mj14:
Actually 1 is not a bomb...Harrington is a fairly
small...he was 7th last year in this tourny and 6th
the year before...I like Weir the south paw he
has a nice game when he is right...Bjorn was 2nd last year he finished 1 stroke behind Els...Johnson
was 10th last year...
Enjoy the American Express Championship :toast:
BET ID=124729059
Future Wager 10/04/05 12:51 ET
50.00/3750.00 Result: Pending
WGC - American Express Championship - Odds To Win
Mike Weir 10/06/05 (08:00 ET)
75-1
BET ID=124728878
Future Wager 10/04/05 12:50 ET
50.00/3750.00 Result: Pending
WGC - American Express Championship - Odds To Win
Thomas Bjorn 10/06/05 (08:00 ET)
75-1
BET ID=124728836
Future Wager 10/04/05 12:49 ET
50.00/3750.00 Result: Pending
WGC - American Express Championship - Odds To Win
Zach Johnson 10/06/05 (08:00 ET)
75-1
BET ID=124727425
Future Wager 10/04/05 12:42 ET
50.00/1500.00 Result: Pending
WGC - American Express Championship - Odds To Win
Padraig Harrington 10/06/05 (08:00 ET)
30-1
4 bombs...Looking to get lucky again :mj14:
Actually 1 is not a bomb...Harrington is a fairly
small...he was 7th last year in this tourny and 6th
the year before...I like Weir the south paw he
has a nice game when he is right...Bjorn was 2nd last year he finished 1 stroke behind Els...Johnson
was 10th last year...
Enjoy the American Express Championship :toast:
BET ID=124729059
Future Wager 10/04/05 12:51 ET
50.00/3750.00 Result: Pending
WGC - American Express Championship - Odds To Win
Mike Weir 10/06/05 (08:00 ET)
75-1
BET ID=124728878
Future Wager 10/04/05 12:50 ET
50.00/3750.00 Result: Pending
WGC - American Express Championship - Odds To Win
Thomas Bjorn 10/06/05 (08:00 ET)
75-1
BET ID=124728836
Future Wager 10/04/05 12:49 ET
50.00/3750.00 Result: Pending
WGC - American Express Championship - Odds To Win
Zach Johnson 10/06/05 (08:00 ET)
75-1
BET ID=124727425
Future Wager 10/04/05 12:42 ET
50.00/1500.00 Result: Pending
WGC - American Express Championship - Odds To Win
Padraig Harrington 10/06/05 (08:00 ET)
30-1
72 hole matchup
David Toms +132 vs Sergio Garcia
Luke Donald -125 vs Padraig Harrington
At Pinnacle
David Toms +132 vs Sergio Garcia
Luke Donald -125 vs Padraig Harrington
At Pinnacle
Last edited:
Adding . . .
OUTRIGHTS:
Jim Furyk(33/1) e.w. @ Bet365
Luke Donald(40/1) e.w. @ Bet365
GL
***************************************
I've played Harding Park at least 8 times between 1984-1996. The course was in abominable shape every time, but like Sandy Tatum, I appreciated what a gem the course truly was, and I always looked forward to my next round there. Link: Makeover (I was also with everyone that parked their cars on and along the 14th and 15th holes at Harding during the 1988 U.S. Open at Olympic, just across Lake Merced). To see the changes at Harding for the first time in the context of a WGC championship is something I've been looking forward to for going on two years.
Local Knowledge: :mj07:
(1) One thing that will not have changed at Harding since 1996 is the wind. Almost every day the wind comes up off Lake Merced by mid-afternoon (the Pacific is like two miles away) and will surely add teeth, especially to holes 13-17 and 8-9. Link: Proverbial calm before the golfing storm The linked article gave me a warm and fuzzy feeling as it brought back memories of shaping shots at Harding. Also, I'm pretty sure rain is almost unheard of at this time of the year in the Bay area, so the firm conditions they are striving for in the set up should be no problem whatsoever.
(2) Balls really tend to drop straight down at the point of entry when shots stray into the Monterey cypress that must surely still encroach on holes like 4, 5, 6, 7 and 12. A shot flying barely into the tree line tends to drop right under the limbs and you have clearance to make a swing and shape an escape shot. If you fly a shot wildly into the second row of trees, stymies easily arise.
(3) I'll never forget this comment by the Olympic greenskeeper before the 1987 (not 1988) U.S. Open: "The greens (at Olympic) are like a Chinese newspaper - tough to read." I think that is true to a degree with all the coastal courses in northern California, and while the Harding greens have thankfully been "blown up" and redone, I really expect that the grains and slopes at Harding will still be tough to read, like they always were (and not really that fast by Tour standards).
Lastly, the aura of San Francisco and the Lake Merced area has always struck me for some dumb reason as conducive to good performances by continental Europeans, or maybe just worldly players.
So, in capping this tournament going in, I went looking for players that fancy shaping shots off the tee and into the greens, have an imagination around the greens and are clever at reading greens, and/or arrive with a distinctly unfulfilled quality at this point in what has been a season of promise.
An antecdote to close. I believe the 16th hole was one of Ken Venturi's favorites anywhere, and I have never played a hole that compares when it comes to firing an iron (or fairway metal) off the tee along a windbreak on the left, and then watching the shot hit a wall of wind and die straight right and into the trouble. Also, the small and sloping 16th green was probably the most difficult to read on the course. (That has to be No. 16 on the left in the picture heading posted below.) You then go to the 17th tee, and as you look through the tight chute of trees on 17, or turn and look back through the trees on 16, you are optically misled as to the extent the wind tunnel on 17 turns away from the quartering wind that just amazed you on 16. Anyway, I'll never forget the time I pured a 6 iron on 17 that might of actually been helped by the wind, and had to have flown the postage stamp 17th green by 15 yards. I knew exactly where my ball had gone missing as I tramped about through the vegetation twenty yards over the green, while the rest of my group was stuck on looking for the ball short of the green and in the hole, certain I couldn't have flown the green going "into" that wind.
OUTRIGHTS:
Jim Furyk(33/1) e.w. @ Bet365
Luke Donald(40/1) e.w. @ Bet365
GL
***************************************
I've played Harding Park at least 8 times between 1984-1996. The course was in abominable shape every time, but like Sandy Tatum, I appreciated what a gem the course truly was, and I always looked forward to my next round there. Link: Makeover (I was also with everyone that parked their cars on and along the 14th and 15th holes at Harding during the 1988 U.S. Open at Olympic, just across Lake Merced). To see the changes at Harding for the first time in the context of a WGC championship is something I've been looking forward to for going on two years.
Local Knowledge: :mj07:
(1) One thing that will not have changed at Harding since 1996 is the wind. Almost every day the wind comes up off Lake Merced by mid-afternoon (the Pacific is like two miles away) and will surely add teeth, especially to holes 13-17 and 8-9. Link: Proverbial calm before the golfing storm The linked article gave me a warm and fuzzy feeling as it brought back memories of shaping shots at Harding. Also, I'm pretty sure rain is almost unheard of at this time of the year in the Bay area, so the firm conditions they are striving for in the set up should be no problem whatsoever.
(2) Balls really tend to drop straight down at the point of entry when shots stray into the Monterey cypress that must surely still encroach on holes like 4, 5, 6, 7 and 12. A shot flying barely into the tree line tends to drop right under the limbs and you have clearance to make a swing and shape an escape shot. If you fly a shot wildly into the second row of trees, stymies easily arise.
(3) I'll never forget this comment by the Olympic greenskeeper before the 1987 (not 1988) U.S. Open: "The greens (at Olympic) are like a Chinese newspaper - tough to read." I think that is true to a degree with all the coastal courses in northern California, and while the Harding greens have thankfully been "blown up" and redone, I really expect that the grains and slopes at Harding will still be tough to read, like they always were (and not really that fast by Tour standards).
Lastly, the aura of San Francisco and the Lake Merced area has always struck me for some dumb reason as conducive to good performances by continental Europeans, or maybe just worldly players.
So, in capping this tournament going in, I went looking for players that fancy shaping shots off the tee and into the greens, have an imagination around the greens and are clever at reading greens, and/or arrive with a distinctly unfulfilled quality at this point in what has been a season of promise.
An antecdote to close. I believe the 16th hole was one of Ken Venturi's favorites anywhere, and I have never played a hole that compares when it comes to firing an iron (or fairway metal) off the tee along a windbreak on the left, and then watching the shot hit a wall of wind and die straight right and into the trouble. Also, the small and sloping 16th green was probably the most difficult to read on the course. (That has to be No. 16 on the left in the picture heading posted below.) You then go to the 17th tee, and as you look through the tight chute of trees on 17, or turn and look back through the trees on 16, you are optically misled as to the extent the wind tunnel on 17 turns away from the quartering wind that just amazed you on 16. Anyway, I'll never forget the time I pured a 6 iron on 17 that might of actually been helped by the wind, and had to have flown the postage stamp 17th green by 15 yards. I knew exactly where my ball had gone missing as I tramped about through the vegetation twenty yards over the green, while the rest of my group was stuck on looking for the ball short of the green and in the hole, certain I couldn't have flown the green going "into" that wind.
Thank LIA was interesting read. Been trying to decide which will be tougher--wind in PM or wet (dew)rough and cool temps in am.
Will be interesting to see course layout on Thursday.All press points to tough,but usually find they are wrong--saw where Tiger said if wind abates winning score could be 20 under--so who knows.
Anyone see any info about rough around greens? Would say conditions would favor Euro players but if rough is punative around greens will negate that factor as most Euro's prefer bump and run and scrambling stats should suffer.
Will be interesting to see course layout on Thursday.All press points to tough,but usually find they are wrong--saw where Tiger said if wind abates winning score could be 20 under--so who knows.
Anyone see any info about rough around greens? Would say conditions would favor Euro players but if rough is punative around greens will negate that factor as most Euro's prefer bump and run and scrambling stats should suffer.
AMEX Plays
AMEX Plays
Just can't find a Matchup I like, plenty out there, but will just go with this Outright.
Jim Furyk WINS WGC-AMERICAN EXP+30.00
AMEX Plays
Just can't find a Matchup I like, plenty out there, but will just go with this Outright.
Jim Furyk WINS WGC-AMERICAN EXP+30.00
Rd. 1 18 hole spread bets
David Howell/ Tom Lehman 2 - 5
Buy at 5 to be with Howell for 0.25 unit
Fred Funk/Stephen Ames 0 - 3
Sell at 0 to be with Ames for 0.25 unit
Both at Sportsacumen
David Howell/ Tom Lehman 2 - 5
Buy at 5 to be with Howell for 0.25 unit
Fred Funk/Stephen Ames 0 - 3
Sell at 0 to be with Ames for 0.25 unit
Both at Sportsacumen
Adding . . .
OUTRIGHTS:
Nick O'Hern(80/1) e.w. @ Bet365
- - Good ol' Nick O'Hern . . . For his wedge, his putting and his driving . . . an October 18 birthday and nice form in around this time of year . . . back in California . . . not someone I lean on in strong winds, but the cooler weather and earlier tee times may overshadow, and still be sunny and balmy compared to Dunhill . . . Good ol' Nick O'Hern could do with another spot to attempt to burnish his standing as the shadows grow on another season of unfulfilled stabs.
DTB: From what I've read and seen, I think the rough is thickish and maybe a little longer than I would have anticipated. Harding is certainly not going to intimidate, even with firm greens and tucked pins, and will yield good scores to good rounds, and I'll be fairly surprised if the winning score and the closest pursuer aren't both at 266 or better.
MATCHUPS:
Olazabal(-115) over Jimenez (Tournament) @ Olympic
Garcia(+135) over Montgomerie/Couples (Thursday) @ 5dimes
GL
OUTRIGHTS:
Nick O'Hern(80/1) e.w. @ Bet365
- - Good ol' Nick O'Hern . . . For his wedge, his putting and his driving . . . an October 18 birthday and nice form in around this time of year . . . back in California . . . not someone I lean on in strong winds, but the cooler weather and earlier tee times may overshadow, and still be sunny and balmy compared to Dunhill . . . Good ol' Nick O'Hern could do with another spot to attempt to burnish his standing as the shadows grow on another season of unfulfilled stabs.
DTB: From what I've read and seen, I think the rough is thickish and maybe a little longer than I would have anticipated. Harding is certainly not going to intimidate, even with firm greens and tucked pins, and will yield good scores to good rounds, and I'll be fairly surprised if the winning score and the closest pursuer aren't both at 266 or better.
MATCHUPS:
Olazabal(-115) over Jimenez (Tournament) @ Olympic
Garcia(+135) over Montgomerie/Couples (Thursday) @ 5dimes
GL
One play for Friday...
Going with Zach Johnson over
Chad Campbell in a round 2 match-up
Campbell finished the 1st round -3
Johnson was -2
BET ID=125035646
Straight Wager 10/06/05 19:34 ET
150.00/130.43 Result: Pending
WGC - American Express Championship - 2nd Round Matchups
Chad Campbell
Zach Johnson 10/07/05 (12:25 ET)
Zach Johnson -115
GL
Going with Zach Johnson over
Chad Campbell in a round 2 match-up
Campbell finished the 1st round -3
Johnson was -2
BET ID=125035646
Straight Wager 10/06/05 19:34 ET
150.00/130.43 Result: Pending
WGC - American Express Championship - 2nd Round Matchups
Chad Campbell
Zach Johnson 10/07/05 (12:25 ET)
Zach Johnson -115
GL
2nd round 18 hole spreads
Fred Funk/ Stephen Ames 2 - 5
Sell at 2 to be with Ames for 0.25 unit.
At Sportsacumen.
(2nd time lucky?)
Fred Funk/ Stephen Ames 2 - 5
Sell at 2 to be with Ames for 0.25 unit.
At Sportsacumen.
(2nd time lucky?)
they dropped some props early I think were suspect--
2nd rd --all girs under the total---
Ticket # Accepted Type Risk To Win Short Description
16847527-1 10/6/2005 4:31 PM Total 36.00 30.00 Other Sports - 306 Luke Donald/Bart Bryant under 24 -120 for Game
16847527-2 10/6/2005 4:31 PM Total 34.50 30.00 Other Sports - 308 Adam Scott/Zach Johnson under 24 -115 for Game
16847574-1 10/6/2005 4:32 PM Total 34.50 30.00 Other Sports - 300 Tiger Woods/Sergio Garcia under 24? -115 for Game
16847574-2 10/6/2005 4:32 PM Total 34.50 30.00 Other Sports - 302 Chad Campbell/Vijay Singh under 24? -115 for Game
16847574-3 10/6/2005 4:32 PM Total 36.00 30.00 Other Sports - 304 Olin Browne/Jim Furyk under 24 -120 for Game
Been having to buy back several props placed in evening in am of late due to weather changes but these look better than last night as fog should hang around in cooler temps should make rough
more punative.
2nd rd --all girs under the total---
Ticket # Accepted Type Risk To Win Short Description
16847527-1 10/6/2005 4:31 PM Total 36.00 30.00 Other Sports - 306 Luke Donald/Bart Bryant under 24 -120 for Game
16847527-2 10/6/2005 4:31 PM Total 34.50 30.00 Other Sports - 308 Adam Scott/Zach Johnson under 24 -115 for Game
16847574-1 10/6/2005 4:32 PM Total 34.50 30.00 Other Sports - 300 Tiger Woods/Sergio Garcia under 24? -115 for Game
16847574-2 10/6/2005 4:32 PM Total 34.50 30.00 Other Sports - 302 Chad Campbell/Vijay Singh under 24? -115 for Game
16847574-3 10/6/2005 4:32 PM Total 36.00 30.00 Other Sports - 304 Olin Browne/Jim Furyk under 24 -120 for Game
Been having to buy back several props placed in evening in am of late due to weather changes but these look better than last night as fog should hang around in cooler temps should make rough
more punative.
One more 2nd Rd. 18 hole spread
Steve Elkington/ Vaughn Taylor -1.5/1.5
Buy at 1.5 to be with Taylor for 0.25 unit
AT SportingIndex
Steve Elkington/ Vaughn Taylor -1.5/1.5
Buy at 1.5 to be with Taylor for 0.25 unit
AT SportingIndex
pharlap said:
Ames by 4 strokes. Profit of 6 units.
The Elkington/Taylor matchup was a non-starter.
soul train said:One play for Friday...
Going with Zach Johnson over
Chad Campbell in a round 2 match-up
Campbell finished the 1st round -3
Johnson was -2
BET ID=125035646
Straight Wager 10/06/05 19:34 ET
150.00/130.43 Result: Pending
WGC - American Express Championship - 2nd Round Matchups
Chad Campbell
Zach Johnson 10/07/05 (12:25 ET)
Zach Johnson -115
GL
Good job Zach Johnson :clap:
BET ID=125035646
Straight Wager 10/06/05 19:34 ET
150.00/130.43 (paid 280.43) Result: Wager Won
WGC - American Express Championship - 2nd Round Matchups
Chad Campbell 0
Zach Johnson 1 10/07/05 (12:25 ET)
Zach Johnson -115
Let`s try the same match up again on Saturday.
BET ID=125211016
Straight Wager 10/07/05 20:11 ET
150.00/130.43 Result: Pending
WGC - American Express Championship - 3rd Round Matchups
Chad Campbell
Zach Johnson 10/08/05 (13:25 ET)
Zach Johnson -115
GL
BET ID=125211016
Straight Wager 10/07/05 20:11 ET
150.00/130.43 Result: Pending
WGC - American Express Championship - 3rd Round Matchups
Chad Campbell
Zach Johnson 10/08/05 (13:25 ET)
Zach Johnson -115
GL
- Feb 26, 2001
- 13,593
- 164
- 63
3rd round 18 hole spread
KJ Choi/ Scott Verplank 0 -3
Buy at 3 to be with Choi for 0.25 unit
At Sportsacumen.
KJ Choi/ Scott Verplank 0 -3
Buy at 3 to be with Choi for 0.25 unit
At Sportsacumen.
